scholarly journals Estimation of final standings in football competitions with a premature ending: the case of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Gorgi ◽  
S. J. Koopman ◽  
R. Lit
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Paired Comparison ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
League Table ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Comparison Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Alternative Approach

AbstractWe study an alternative approach to determine the final league table in football competitions with a premature ending. For several countries, a premature ending of the 2019/2020 football season has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a model-based method as a possible alternative to the use of the incomplete standings to determine the final table. This method measures the performance of the teams in the matches of the season that have been played and predicts the remaining non-played matches through a paired-comparison model. The main advantage of the method compared to the incomplete standings is that it takes account of the bias in the performance measure due to the schedule of the matches in a season. Therefore, the resulting ranking of the teams based on our proposed method can be regarded as more fair in this respect. A forecasting study based on historical data of seven of the main European competitions is used to validate the method. The empirical results suggest that the model-based approach produces more accurate predictions of the true final standings than those based on the incomplete standings.

Stream-based explainable recommendations via blockchain profiling

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Fátima Leal ◽  
Bruno Veloso ◽  
Benedita Malheiro ◽  
Juan Carlos Burguillo ◽  
Adriana E. Chis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Recommendation Systems ◽  
Use Cases ◽  
Collaborative Filter ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Collaborative Recommendation ◽  
Smart Contract ◽  
User Trust

Explainable recommendations enable users to understand why certain items are suggested and, ultimately, nurture system transparency, trustworthiness, and confidence. Large crowdsourcing recommendation systems ought to crucially promote authenticity and transparency of recommendations. To address such challenge, this paper proposes the use of stream-based explainable recommendations via blockchain profiling. Our contribution relies on chained historical data to improve the quality and transparency of online collaborative recommendation filters – Memory-based and Model-based – using, as use cases, data streamed from two large tourism crowdsourcing platforms, namely Expedia and TripAdvisor. Building historical trust-based models of raters, our method is implemented as an external module and integrated with the collaborative filter through a post-recommendation component. The inter-user trust profiling history, traceability and authenticity are ensured by blockchain, since these profiles are stored as a smart contract in a private Ethereum network. Our empirical evaluation with HotelExpedia and Tripadvisor has consistently shown the positive impact of blockchain-based profiling on the quality (measured as recall) and transparency (determined via explanations) of recommendations.

Competing Explanations of Split-ticket Voting in American National Elections

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANCO MATTEI ◽  
JOHN S. HOWES
Keyword(s):  
Small Group ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Congressional Voting ◽  
Party Polarization ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Candidate Evaluations ◽  
Electoral Expectations ◽  
The Relationship

In this article, the authors propose an extension to Fiorina's balancing model based on voters' electoral expectations and test this extension and several implications of the theory. The authors examine the observed pattern of ticket-splitting and find it less consistent with a balancing perspective than with an alternative approach stressing separation between presidential and congressional voting. They also address the relationship between party polarization and ticket-splitting; their results indicate that the occurrence of split ballots does not increase with polarization. A further test identifies respondents with both the sophistication and the motive to engage in balancing behavior. According to this analysis, balancing considerations influence, at most, the very small group of voters whose sophistication and electoral expectations give them the tools and the incentive to pursue balance with a split ballot. Ticket-splitting appears to result far more from incumbency and cross-pressured voters holding candidate evaluations at odds with their partisan learnings.

WEATHER AND THE ECOLOGY OF APANTELES FUMIFERANAE VIER. (HYMENOPTERA: BRACONIDAE)

1988 ◽  
Vol 120 (S146) ◽  
pp. 57-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent G. Nealis
Keyword(s):  
Field Data ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Maturation Period ◽  
Phenological Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Egg Maturation ◽  
Adult Parasitoid ◽  
Specific Mortality

AbstractThe effects of weather on the spruce budworm parasitoid, Apanteles fumiferanae Vier., are examined. A phenological model based on temperature-dependent rates of development and longevity is developed and validated with field data. The model is then used to explore the effects of age-specific mortality on phenological behaviour of the parasitoid and the seasonal synchrony between the parasitoid and its host over several years. The results show that the parasitoid adult ecloses well before the host reaches an age susceptible to parasitism but that the egg maturation period and the longevity of the parasitoid diminish the consequences of the apparent asynchrony. The historical data reveal that the relative phenological characteristics of A. fumiferanae and its host vary little from year to year. In the second part of the study, temperature is shown to have a strong effect on adult parasitoid activity and on the rate of oviposition.

scholarly journals Model-Based Roentgen Stereophotogrammetric Analysis Using Elementary Geometrical Shape Models: Reliability of Migration Measurements for an Anatomically Shaped Femoral Stem Component

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 8507
Author(s):  
Jing Xu ◽  
Han Cao ◽  
Stefan Sesselmann ◽  
Dominic Taylor ◽  
Raimund Forst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Femoral Stem ◽  
Geometrical Shape ◽  
Stem Design ◽  
Rater Reliability ◽  
Roentgen Stereophotogrammetric Analysis ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Out Of Plane ◽  
Rater Variability

Elementary Geometrical Shape (EGS) models present an alternative approach to detect in vivo migration of total hip arthroplasty using model-based Roentgen Stereophotogrammetric Analysis (mbRSA). However, its applicability for an irregular-shaped femoral stem and the reliability of this mbRSA approach has not been proven so far. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of multi-rater and an anatomically shaped femoral stem design onto resulting implant to bone migration results. The retrospective analysis included 18 clinical cases of anatomically shaped stem with 10-year RSA follow-ups. Three raters repeatedly measured all RSA follow-ups for evaluating the rater equivalence and intra-rater reliability. The results proved the equivalence between different raters for mbRSA using EGS models (mbRSA-EGS), hence it simplified the investigation of rater reliability to intra-rater reliability. In all in-plane migration measurements, mbRSA-EGS shows good intra-rater reliability and small intra-rater variability (translation: <0.15 mm; rotation: <0.18 deg). However, the reliability is worse in the out-of-plane measurements, especially the cranial-caudal rotation (intra-rater variability: 0.99–1.81 deg). Overall, mbRSA-EGS can be an alternative approach next to surface models while the in-plane migration of femoral stem (e.g., the implant subsidence for loosening prediction) have more research interested than other directions.

scholarly journals Econometric Model to Estimate Defaults on Payment in the Spanish Financial Sector in Oliver Wyman’s Stress Tests

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Salvador Climent-Serrano
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This work develops an econometric model based on the exogenous economic variables used in Oliver Wyman´s report. In this case the model is used in order to estimate late payments (NPLs) by Spanish credit entities. A model based on variables considered to be optimal to quantify impact on the NPLs is developed by studying the aforementioned variables, modifying them and eliminating any which are superfluous. Furthermore, whether or not the model is optimal for long periods of time is corroborated. This is due to the fact that the scenario in Oliver Wyman´s report from September 2012 (Wyman 2012) is based on 30 years of Spanish economical historical data, as stated in the report itself. The results indicate the variables that have impact on defaults. The increase in housing prices, the Madrid Stock Exchange Index, the Exchange Rate the euro against USD. The Euribor 12 months and the industries Credit to other residents, decreases the delinquency. The NPLs also fell by transfers from riskier assets to SAREB. However, these results are different if the economy is growing or in recession. So the results will not be optimal but the appropriate model is employed.

scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI KEBERHASILAN REDENOMINASI

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-73
Author(s):  
Nur Siti Annazah ◽  
Bambang Juanda ◽  
Sri Mulatsih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Perspective ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Real Value ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

Redenomination is a simplification of the nominal value of the currency by reducing digits (zeros) without reducing the real value of the currency. The research was done because of the theoretical and empirical results are still a debate about the impact of redenomination policy on the economic perspective. This is due to the redenomination policy in each country has a different effect depending on economic conditions when redenomination is applied. The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors that influence the success of the redenomination of a country. Data used in the form of secondary data, historical data of 32 countries that have conducted redenomination. The analysis used is multiple regression. The results showed the better the condition of economic growth when redenomination is applied, it will lower inflation one year after the redenomination. Keywords: Economic growth, Inflation, Redenomination, Regression

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