Critical analysis of simulated daily temperature data from the ARPEGE-climate model: application to climate change in the Champagne wine-producing region

2014 ◽  
Vol 123 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Briche ◽  
G. Beltrando ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
H. Quenol
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. e1007000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Bury ◽  
Chris T. Bauch ◽  
Madhur Anand

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-62
Author(s):  
Syed Mustafizur Rahman ◽  
Syed Mahbubur Rahman ◽  
Md. Shuzon Ali ◽  
Md. Abdullah Al Mamun ◽  
Md. Nezam Uddin

Abstract Seasons are the divisions of the year into months or days according to the changes in weather, ecology and the intensity of sunlight in a given region. The temperature cycle plays a major role in defining the meteorological seasons of the year. This study aims at investigating seasonal boundaries applying harmonic analysis in daily temperature for the duration of 30 years, recorded at six stations from 1988 to 2017, in northwest part of Bangladesh. Year by year harmonic analyses of daily temperature data in each station have been carried out to observe temporal and spatial variations in seasonal lengths. Periodic nature of daily temperature has been investigated employing spectral analysis, and it has been found that the estimated periodicities have higher power densities of the frequencies at 0.0027 and 0.0053 cycles/day. Some other minor periodic natures have also been observed in the analyses. Using the frequencies between 0.0027 to 0.0278 cycles/day, the observed periodicities in spectral analysis, harmonic analyses of minimum and maximum temperatures have found four seasonal boundaries every year in each of the stations. The estimated seasonal boundaries for the region fall between 19-25 February, 19-23 May, 18-20 August and 17-22 November. Since seasonal variability results in imbalance in water, moisture and heat, it has the potential to significantly affect agricultural production. Hence, the seasons and seasonal lengths presented in this research may help the concerned authorities take measures to reduce the risks for crop productivity to face the challenges arise from changing climate. Moreover, the results obtained are likely to contribute in introducing local climate calendar.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.


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