scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of climate change on water levels in a data-poor river basin in southeastern Brazil

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus Gonçalves Michelan ◽  
Mateus Nardini Menegaz ◽  
Flávio Aparecido Gonçalves ◽  
Paulo Henrique Bretanha Junker Menezes ◽  
Rafael de Oliveira Tiezzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Data ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In basins with multiple water uses, it is possible a conflict over water use may occur. This probability increases under a water scarcity scenario. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible impact of climate change on water availability in this type of basin, to support the decision-making of its users. The Ribeirão do Cipó is an example of a Brazilian watershed susceptible to this situation. Besides having poor hydrological data, it is used for public water supply, electricity generation and recreation. The present work developed a methodology for estimating water availability impacted by climate change, which was particularly applied to this watershed. The methodology consisted of feeding the rainfall–runoff hydrological model called soil moisture accounting procedure with precipitation and evapotranspiration data projected by the Eta-CPTEC regional climate model and nested to three global climate models. The outputs methods were obtained in terms of average monthly flow, for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Despite the small amount of hydrological data available on the basin, the results were similar to those of the methods used as reference, thus demonstrating that the methodology used can be an alternative in estimating flow for climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

Application of an economy-climate model to assess the impact of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 957-965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Guolin Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Sensitivity of wheat yields to rise in growing season temperature: Evidences from panel data analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-197
Author(s):  
K. PHILIP ◽  
S.S. ASHA DEVI ◽  
G.K. JHA ◽  
B.M.K. RAJU ◽  
B. SEN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on agriculture is well studied yet there is scope for improvement as crop specific and location specific impacts need to be assessed realistically to frame adaptation and mitigation strategies to lessen the adverse effects of climate change. Many researchers have tried to estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using indirect crop simulation modeling techniques. Here, this study estimated the potential impact of climate change on wheat yields using a crop specific panel data set from 1981 to 2010,for six major wheat producing states. The study revealed that 1°C increase in average maximum temperature during the growing season reduces wheat yield by 3 percent. Major share of wheat growth and yield (79%) is attributed to increase in usage of physical inputs specifically fertilizers, machine labour and human labour. The estimated impact was lesser than previously reported studies due to the inclusion of wide range of short-term adaptation strategies to climate change. The results reiterate the necessity of including confluent factors like physical inputs while investigating the impact of climate factors on crop yields.

scholarly journals Future Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 467-476
Author(s):  
Femi S. Omotayo ◽  
Philip G. Oguntunde ◽  
Ayorinde A. Olufayo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ondo State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cocoa Yield

This study was carried to determine the trend of cocoa yield and climatic variables and assessment of the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria. Annual trend statistics for cocoa yield and climatic variables were analyzed for the state using Mann-Kendall test for trend and Sen’s slope estimates. Downscaled data from six Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to examine the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in the study area. The results of trends analysis in Ondo State showed that yield decreased monotonically at the rate of 492.18 tonnes/yr (P<0.05). An increased significant trend was established in annual rainfall trend. While Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean temperature all increased at the rate of 0.02/yr (P<0.001). The ensemble of all the GCMs projected a mid-term future decrease of about 9,334 tonnes/yr by 2050 and a long-term future decrease of 13,504 tonnes/yr of cocoa by 2100. The economic implication of these is that, if the projected change in the yield of cocoa as predicted by the ensemble of all the GCMs should hold for the future, it means that Ondo state may experience a loss of about $22,470,018.22 and $32,308,584.32 by the year 2050 and 2100 respectively according to the present price of the commodity in the world market. Measures are to be taken by the government and farmers to find a way of mitigating the impacts of climate change on the future yield of the cocoa study area. This research should be extended to other cocoa producing areas in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Maize Productivity in Trans-gangetic Plains using Info Crop Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baljeet Kaur ◽  
Som Pal Singh ◽  
P.K. Kingra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Gangetic Plains ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Model Average ◽  
In Trans ◽  
The Impact

Background: Climate change is a nonpareil threat to the food security of hundred millions of people who depends on agriculture for their livelihood. A change in climate affects agricultural production as climate and agriculture are intensely interrelated global processes. Global warming is one of such changes which is projected to have significant impacts on environment affecting agriculture. Agriculture is the mainstay economy in trans-gangetic plains of India and maize is the third most important crop after wheat and rice. Heat stress in maize cause several changes viz. morphological, anatomical and physiological and biochemical changes. Methods: In this study during 2014-2018, impact of climate change on maize yield in future scenarios was simulated using the InfoCrop model. Average maize yield from 2001-15 was collected for Punjab, Haryana and Delhi to calibrate and validate the model. Future climatic data set from 2020 to 2050 was used in the study to analyse the trends in climatic parameters.Result: Analysis of future data revealed increasing trends in maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Rainfall would likely follow the erratic behaviour in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. Increase in temperature was predicted to have negative impact on maize yield under future climatic scenario.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PONNANIYAR BASIN OF TAMIL NADU BASED ON REGCM 4.4 SIMULATIONS

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
V. Guhan ◽  
V. Geethalakshmi ◽  
R. Jagannathan ◽  
S. Panneerselvam ◽  
K. Bhuvaneswari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Tomato Yield ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change induced extreme weather events such as drought and flood condition are likely to become more common and associated impacts on crop production will be more without proper irrigation planning. The present investigation was undertaken for assessing the impact of Climate change on tomato yield and water use efficiency (WUE) using AquaCrop model and RegCM 4.4 simulations. The water driven AquaCrop model was validated based on observation of field experiment conducted with four different dates of sowing (1st November, 15th November, 1st December, 15th December) at Ponnaniyar basin, Tiruchirappalli. Validation of AquaCrop model indicated the capability of AquaCrop in predicting tomato yield, biomass and WUE close to the observed data. Seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures over Tiruchirappalli are projected to increase in the mid-century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.7&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.5&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in SWM and 1.9&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.9&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Minimum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.6&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.2&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in SWM and 1.6&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.1&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Seasonal rainfall over Tiruchirappalli is expected to decrease with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios with different magnitude. Rainfall is expected to change to the tune of &amp;minus;1/&amp;minus;11 per cent in SWM and &amp;minus;2/&amp;minus;14 per cent in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways.</p>

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