scholarly journals Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 781-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Frame ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Ilan Noy ◽  
Luke J. Harrington ◽  
Trevor Carey-Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Initial Attempt ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract An important and under-quantified facet of the risks associated with human-induced climate change emerges through extreme weather. In this paper, we present an initial attempt to quantify recent costs related to extreme weather due to human interference in the climate system, focusing on economic costs arising from droughts and floods in New Zealand during the decade 2007–2017. We calculate these using previously collected information about the damages and losses associated with past floods and droughts, and estimates of the “fraction of attributable risk” that characterizes each event. The estimates we obtain are not comprehensive, and almost certainly represent an underestimate of the full economic costs of climate change, notably chronic costs associated with long-term trends. However, the paper shows the potential for developing a new stream of information that is relevant to a range of stakeholders and research communities, especially those with an interest in the aggregation of the costs of climate change or the identification of specific costs associated with potential liability.

Supporting Long-Term Decision Making in Plant Production in Serbia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić ◽  
Ana Vuković Vimić ◽  
Marija Ćosić ◽  
Zorica Ranković-Vasić ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjević ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Seasonal Weather

<p>Agriculture is exposed to numerous risks related to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, heat waves, intensive rainfall and floods, as well as slow changes (increased temperatures, changes in precipitation regime and generally increased climate variability) affect the year-to-year stability of quality and quantity of the plant production.</p><p>Serbia is located in one of the regions that are recognized as hot spots where climate change unfolds faster than the global average. A survey completed by more than 100 agricultural producers in Serbia showed that in the last 20 years they were affected by mostly negative impact of climate change and suffered reduced quality and/or quantity of yields, mostly from droughts, high summer temperatures, spring frosts and storms with strong winds and hail.</p><p>Adaptation measures applied to reduce the risks of extreme weather events are mainly those subsidized by the Government (anti-hail nets, irrigation systems, etc.), recommended by the Agriculture Advisory Service or other independent expert (tillage methods, sowing time, time and water amount used for irrigation, use of fertilizers, etc.), as well as those learn from their own past experience (selection of varieties, crop rotation).</p><p>Most respondents regularly follow short-term weather forecasts from various sources and plan field activities accordingly. They are mainly familiar with the monthly forecast issued by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS), which is also published by several newspapers. This forecast is based on the statistical method of analogies and the producers believe that they cannot rely on it in long-term planning. In general, they lack confidence in the long-term weather forecasts, mainly due to the fact that over the past years Serbian media were overwhelmed with tendentious seasonal forecasts from unreliable sources.</p><p>On the other hand, the survey showed that many producers would appreciate and use the seasonal weather outlooks if it was tailored according to their specific needs considering species they cultivate and local climate characteristics. They would like clearly presented information, in simple graph or map form, followed by textual advices on agro-technical measures they could adopt in order to reduce foreseen weather-related risks.</p><p>Integrated Agro-meteorological Prediction System (IAPS) is a project financed by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia through the Program for excellent project of young researchers (PROMIS) that aims to reduce the risk of weather-related events and increase climate resilience of Serbian agriculture, as well as to advance the use of climate information by producers and agricultural advisers in long-term planning. The idea is to create a coupled system od dynamically downscaled seasonal weather forecasts and crop models, accompanied with a set of products specifically tailored to support long-term decision making in agriculture. At the end of the project, the developed system and its products will be offered to RHMSS to include in the operative forecast system.</p>

The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
KARL PAUW ◽  
JAMES THURLOW ◽  
MURTHY BACHU ◽  
DIRK ERNST VAN SEVENTER
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Repeated Sampling ◽  
Droughts And Floods

ABSTRACTExtreme weather events such as droughts and floods have potentially damaging implications for developing countries. Previous studies have estimated economic losses during hypothetical or single historical events, and have relied on historical production data rather than explicitly modeling climate. However, effective mitigation strategies require knowledge of the full distribution of weather events and their isolated effects on economic outcomes. We combine stochastic hydrometeorological crop-loss models with a regionalized computable general equilibrium model to estimate losses for the full distribution of possible weather events in Malawi. Results indicate that, based on repeated sampling from historical events, at least 1.7 per cent of Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) is lost each year due to the combined effects of droughts and floods. Smaller-scale farmers in the southern region of the country are worst affected. However, poverty among urban and nonfarm households also increases due to national food shortages and higher domestic prices.

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

scholarly journals Policy options for addressing climate change, with a focus on ecosystem based adaptation: a case study of Guyana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Lilwah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Resource Sector ◽  
Adaptation Method ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Close to ninety percent of Guyana‟s population live along a low lying coastal plain, which is below sea level and very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While the national government has not yet developed a comprehensive climate policy, the potential impacts of climate change is considered in several sectoral policies, much of which emphasize mitigation, with little focus on adaptation. This research examined the current priorities for adaptation by a review of the policies within the natural resource sector to identify opportunities for adaptation, especially ecosystem based adaptation. A Diagnostic Adaptation Framework (DAF) was used to help identify approaches to address a given adaptation challenge with regards to needs, measures and options. A survey questionnaire was used to support the policy reviews and identified four key vulnerabilities: coastal floods; sea level rise; drought and extreme weather events. The application of the DAF in selecting an adaptation method suggests the need for more data on drought and extreme weather events. Coastal flooding is addressed, with recognized need for more data and public awareness for ecosystem based adaptation

scholarly journals Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Mediterranean Finfish Production: A Case Study in Greece.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Farm Level ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, Dynamic Energy Budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm level were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Waves on Tanker Design

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lars Ingolf Eide ◽  
Erik Vanem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Ship Design ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Design Practice ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Activity Intensity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Current Design

Global warming and extreme weather events reported in the last years have attracted a lot of attention not only in academia and media but also in the shipping industry. Three important questions have been in focus: will occurrence of extreme weather events increase in the future, which geographical locations will be most affected, and to what degree will climate change affect future ship traffic and design of ship structures. Observed and projected changes in wave conditions are expected to have the largest effect on ship design and operations in comparison to other environmental phenomena. The present study briefly summarizes recent investigations addressing changes of significant wave height in the North Atlantic, including the last findings of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and discusses how these changes can be included in environmental description used for ship design. It is also interesting to notice that climate changes resulting in some ocean regions in increase of storm activity (intensity, duration and fetch) and changes of storm tracks may result in secondary effects such as increased frequency of occurrence of abnormal waves, also called rogue or freak waves. This study shows how the scientific findings on climate change and rogue waves can be incorporated in the risk-based approach used in current design practice of tankers, and ships structures in general. Further, it demonstrates the effect of climate change and rogue waves on tanker design, particularly on the safety level of current design practice. Finally, the present paper discusses how structural design of ships can be upgraded to account for climate change and rogue waves but economic consequences do not need to be significant.

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