scholarly journals Rainfall variability in southeast and west-central Africa during the Little Ice Age: do documentary and proxy records agree?

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Hannaford ◽  
Kristen K. Beck
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
West Central ◽  
Early Colonial ◽  
Instrumental Records

AbstractUnderstanding of long-term climatic change prior to instrumental records necessitates reconstructions from documentary and palaeoclimate archives. In southern Africa, documentary-derived chronologies of nineteenth century rainfall variability and palaeoclimate records have permitted new insights into rainfall variability over past centuries. Rarely considered, however, is the climatic information within early colonial documentary records that emerge from the late fifteenth century onwards. This paper examines evidence for (multi-)seasonal dry and wet events within these earlier written records (c. 1550–1830 CE) from southeast Africa (Mozambique) and west-central Africa (Angola) in conjunction with palaeoclimate records from multiple proxies. Specifically, it aims to understand whether these sources agree in their signals of rainfall variability over a 280-year period covering the ‘main phase’ Little Ice Age (LIA) in southern Africa. The two source types generally, but do not always, show agreement within the two regions. This appears to reflect both the nature of rainfall variability and the context behind documentary recording. Both source types indicate that southeast and west-central Africa were distinct regions of rainfall variability over seasonal and longer timescales during the LIA, with southeast Africa being generally drier and west-central Africa generally wetter. However, the documentary records reveal considerable variability within these mean state climatic conditions, with multi-year droughts a recurrent feature in both regions. An analysis of long-term rainfall links with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in southeast Africa suggests a complex and possibly non-stationary relationship. Overall, early colonial records provide valuable information for constraining hydroclimate variability where palaeoclimate records remain sparse.

Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: a reflection on underlying processes

1997 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.J. Mason ◽  
M.R. Jury
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Quasi-periodicities in annual rainfall totals over southern Africa have been identified; in particular, an approximately 18-year cycle may be related to interdecadal variability in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and central Indian Oceans. A 10-year cycle along the south coast is related to variability in standing wave 3. Atmospheric anomalies associated with wet and dry years can be related to changes in the frequency, intensity and persistence of important rainfall-producing weather systems and highlight the significance of the strength of the continental heat low and the preferred locations and amplitudes of the westerly troughs. El Niño Southern Oscillation events and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans can influence both the tropical and the temperate atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes over the subcontinent and thus are significant influences on rainfall variability. Evidence for long-term climatic change is not as definitive as in the Sahel, although there are indications of desiccation in some areas since the late-1970s. Increases in temperatures are of approximately the same magnitude as the hemispheric trends and may be attributable to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

scholarly journals Madagascar corals reveal Pacific multidecadal modulation of rainfall since 1708

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 787-817
Author(s):  
C. A. Grove ◽  
J. Zinke ◽  
F. Peeters ◽  
W. Park ◽  
T. Scheufen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Western Indian Ocean ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. The Pacific Ocean modulates Australian and North American rainfall variability on multidecadal timescales, in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It has been suggested that Pacific decadal variability may also influence Indian Ocean surface temperature and rainfall in a far-field response, similar to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales. However, instrumental records of rainfall are too short and too sparse to confidently assess such multidecadal climatic teleconnections. Here, we present four climate archives spanning the past 300 yr from giant Madagascar corals. We decouple 20th century human deforestation effects from rainfall induced soil erosion using spectral luminescence scanning and geochemistry. The corals provide the first evidence for Pacific decadal modulation of rainfall over the Western Indian Ocean. We find that positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and rainfall in Eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in Southern Africa and Eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 should lead to reduced rainfall over Eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in Southern Africa and Eastern Australia. We conclude that the PDO has important implications for future multidecadal variability of African rainfall, where water resource management is increasingly important under the warming climate.

Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability and associated Climatic forcings in the last two millennia inferred by a Stalagmite from the peninsular India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveen Gandhi ◽  
Phannindra Reddy A. ◽  
Raghavan Krishnan ◽  
Madhusudan G. Yadava
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Peninsular India ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
The Last Two Millennia

<p>We present high temporal (near-annually) resolved δ<sup>18</sup>O values from absolutely dated stalagmite record that represents the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall variations for the Indian subcontinent spanning from 207 AD to 2014 AD. This rainfall reconstruction shows ISM varaitions for four major global climatic periods viz., Roman Warm Period (RWP), Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP), Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Cave records from different patrs of the sub-continent synchronously show enhanced precipitation during DACP. This wet period was forced by Solar-induced El-NiNo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tibetan Plateau Temperature. Cliamtic conditions were wetter during LIA than that during MWP, as the former witnessed more number of wet monsoon years. However, MWP witnessed the strongest and the weakest monsoon years in the last two millennia. The direct influence of Soalr activity on the position of Inter Tropical Convergance zone (ITCZ) might have caused the observed ISM variability of MWP. Altough ISM shows largest variability during MWP, the overall monsoon state was moving towards wetter conditions, forced by ENSO. Solar induced forcings on ENSO influenced ISM during LIA. Our results suggest of non-stationary dynamical forcings over ISM during different periods in the last two millennia.</p>

scholarly journals Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1857-1869 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.-C. Wang ◽  
H. Behling ◽  
T.-Q. Lee ◽  
H.-C. Li ◽  
C.-A. Huh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Agricultural Activities ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hydrological Conditions ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract. We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100–1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 – AD 1400–1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 – AD 1630–1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

scholarly journals Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 641-656 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Grove ◽  
J. Zinke ◽  
F. Peeters ◽  
W. Park ◽  
T. Scheufen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Western Indian Ocean ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008) to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be taken into account when considering water resource management under a future warming climate.

Elemental proxy evidence for late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental change in southern African sedimentary records: interpretation and applications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.S. Humphries
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Geochemical Data ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Cape Coast

Abstract Sediments are the most important source of Late Quaternary palaeoclimate information in southern Africa, but have been little studied from a geochemical perspective. However, recent advances in analytical techniques that allow rapid and near-continuous elemental records to be obtained from sedimentary sequences has resulted in the increasing use of elemental indicators for reconstructing climate. This paper explores the diverse information that can be acquired from the inorganic component of sediments and reviews some of the progress that has been made over the last two decades in interpreting the climatic history of southern Africa using elemental records. Despite the general scarcity of elemental records, excellent examples from the region exist, which provide some of the longest and most highly resolved sequences of environmental change currently available. Records from Tswaing crater and marine deposits on the southern KwaZulu-Natal coastline have provided rare glimpses into hydroclimate variability over the last 200 000 years, suggesting that summer rainfall in the region responded predominantly to insolation forcing on glacial-interglacial timescales. Over shorter timescales, lakes and wetlands found in the Wilderness embayment on the southern Cape coast and along the Maputaland coast in north-eastern South Africa have yielded highly-resolved elemental records of Holocene environmental change, providing insight into the changing interactions between tropical (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and temperate (e.g., mid-latitude westerlies) climate systems affecting rainfall variability in the region. The examples discussed demonstrate the multiple environmental processes that can be inferred from elemental proxies and the unique insight this can provide in advancing our understanding of past climate change on different timescales. The interpretation of geochemical data can be complicated by the complex nature of sedimentary environments, various proxy assumptions and analytical challenges, and the reliability of sediment-based climate reconstructions is substantially enhanced through multi-proxy approaches.

The Little Ice Age in Italy from documentary proxies and early instrumental records

2014 ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Camuffo ◽  
Chiara Bertolin ◽  
Patrizia Schenal ◽  
Alberto Craievich ◽  
Rossella Granziero
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Instrumental Records

scholarly journals Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luxon Nhamo ◽  
Greenwell Mathcaya ◽  
Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi ◽  
Sibusiso Nhlengethwa ◽  
Charles Nhemachena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Cereal Production ◽  
The Impact

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/16 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.

scholarly journals Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the Little Ice Age controlled by geometry

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2249-2266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Steiger ◽  
Kerim H. Nisancioglu ◽  
Henning Åkesson ◽  
Basile de Fleurian ◽  
Faezeh M. Nick
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Term Response

Abstract. Rapid retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers coincides with regional warming trends, which have broadly been used to explain these rapid changes. However, outlet glaciers within similar climate regimes experience widely contrasting retreat patterns, suggesting that the local fjord geometry could be an important additional factor. To assess the relative role of climate and fjord geometry, we use the retreat history of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in 1850 as a baseline for the parameterization of a depth- and width-integrated ice flow model. The impact of fjord geometry is isolated by using a linearly increasing climate forcing since the LIA and testing a range of simplified geometries. We find that the total length of retreat is determined by external factors – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and buttressing by sea ice – whereas the retreat pattern is governed by the fjord geometry. Narrow and shallow areas provide pinning points and cause delayed but rapid retreat without additional climate warming, after decades of grounding line stability. We suggest that these geometric pinning points may be used to locate potential sites for moraine formation and to predict the long-term response of the glacier. As a consequence, to assess the impact of climate on the retreat history of a glacier, each system has to be analyzed with knowledge of its historic retreat and the local fjord geometry.

scholarly journals Moisture Changes in the Northern Xinjiang Basin Over the Past 2400 years as Documented in Pollen Records of Jili Lake

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulin Xiao ◽  
Lixiong Xiang ◽  
Xiaozhong Huang ◽  
Keely Mills ◽  
Jun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Pollen Record ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Northern Xinjiang ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Background

Regional humidity is important for terrestrial ecosystem development, while it differs from region to region in inland Asia, knowledge of past moisture changes in the lower basin of northern Xinjiang remainly largely unclear. Based on a pollen record from Jili Lake, the Artemisia/(Amaranthaceae + Ephedra) (Ar/(Am + E)) ratio, as an index of regional humidity, has recorded four relatively dry phases: 1) 400 BCE to 1 CE, 2) the Roman Warm Period (RWP; c. 1–400 CE), 3) the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; c. 850–1200 CE) and 4) the Current Warm Period (CWP; since 1850 CE). In contrast, the Dark Age Cold Period (DACP; c. 400–850 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; c. 1200–1850 CE) were relatively wet. Lower lake levels in a relatively humid climate background indicated by higher aquatic pollen (Typha and Sparganium) after c. 1700 CE are likely the result of intensified irrigation for agriculture in the catchment as documented in historical records. The pollen Ar/(Am + E) ratio also recorded a millennial-scale wetting trend from 1 CE to 1550 CE which is concomitant with a long-term cooling recorded in the Northern Hemisphere.

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