scholarly journals Using machine learning for model benchmarking and forecasting of depletion-induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

Author(s):  
Jan Limbeck ◽  
Kevin Bisdom ◽  
Fabian Lanz ◽  
Timothy Park ◽  
Eduardo Barbaro ◽  
...  

AbstractThe Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is experiencing induced seismicity as a result of ongoing depletion. The physical mechanisms that control seismicity have been studied through rock mechanical experiments and combined physical-statistical models to support development of a framework to forecast induced-seismicity risks. To investigate whether machine learning techniques such as Random Forests and Support Vector Machines bring new insights into forecasts of induced seismicity rates in space and time, a pipeline is designed that extends time-series analysis methods to a spatiotemporal framework with a factorial setup, which allows probing a large parameter space of plausible modelling assumptions, followed by a statistical meta-analysis to account for the intrinsic uncertainties in subsurface data and to ensure statistical significance and robustness of results. The pipeline includes model validation using e.g. likelihood ratio tests against average depletion thickness and strain thickness baselines to establish whether the models have statistically significant forecasting power. The methodology is applied to forecast seismicity for two distinctly different gas production scenarios. Results show that seismicity forecasts generated using Support Vector Machines significantly outperform beforementioned baselines. Forecasts from the method hint at decreasing seismicity rates within the next 5 years, in a conservative production scenario, and no such decrease in a higher depletion scenario, although due to the small effective sample size no statistically solid statement of this kind can be made. The presented approach can be used to make forecasts beyond the investigated 5-years period, although this requires addition of limited physics-based constraints to avoid unphysical forecasts.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yao Huimin

With the development of cloud computing and distributed cluster technology, the concept of big data has been expanded and extended in terms of capacity and value, and machine learning technology has also received unprecedented attention in recent years. Traditional machine learning algorithms cannot solve the problem of effective parallelization, so a parallelization support vector machine based on Spark big data platform is proposed. Firstly, the big data platform is designed with Lambda architecture, which is divided into three layers: Batch Layer, Serving Layer, and Speed Layer. Secondly, in order to improve the training efficiency of support vector machines on large-scale data, when merging two support vector machines, the “special points” other than support vectors are considered, that is, the points where the nonsupport vectors in one subset violate the training results of the other subset, and a cross-validation merging algorithm is proposed. Then, a parallelized support vector machine based on cross-validation is proposed, and the parallelization process of the support vector machine is realized on the Spark platform. Finally, experiments on different datasets verify the effectiveness and stability of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the proposed parallelized support vector machine has outstanding performance in speed-up ratio, training time, and prediction accuracy.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0257901
Author(s):  
Yanjing Bi ◽  
Chao Li ◽  
Yannick Benezeth ◽  
Fan Yang

Phoneme pronunciations are usually considered as basic skills for learning a foreign language. Practicing the pronunciations in a computer-assisted way is helpful in a self-directed or long-distance learning environment. Recent researches indicate that machine learning is a promising method to build high-performance computer-assisted pronunciation training modalities. Many data-driven classifying models, such as support vector machines, back-propagation networks, deep neural networks and convolutional neural networks, are increasingly widely used for it. Yet, the acoustic waveforms of phoneme are essentially modulated from the base vibrations of vocal cords, and this fact somehow makes the predictors collinear, distorting the classifying models. A commonly-used solution to address this issue is to suppressing the collinearity of predictors via partial least square regressing algorithm. It allows to obtain high-quality predictor weighting results via predictor relationship analysis. However, as a linear regressor, the classifiers of this type possess very simple topology structures, constraining the universality of the regressors. For this issue, this paper presents an heterogeneous phoneme recognition framework which can further benefit the phoneme pronunciation diagnostic tasks by combining the partial least square with support vector machines. A French phoneme data set containing 4830 samples is established for the evaluation experiments. The experiments of this paper demonstrates that the new method improves the accuracy performance of the phoneme classifiers by 0.21 − 8.47% comparing to state-of-the-arts with different data training data density.


2011 ◽  
Vol 230-232 ◽  
pp. 625-628
Author(s):  
Lei Shi ◽  
Xin Ming Ma ◽  
Xiao Hong Hu

E-bussiness has grown rapidly in the last decade and massive amount of data on customer purchases, browsing pattern and preferences has been generated. Classification of electronic data plays a pivotal role to mine the valuable information and thus has become one of the most important applications of E-bussiness. Support Vector Machines are popular and powerful machine learning techniques, and they offer state-of-the-art performance. Rough set theory is a formal mathematical tool to deal with incomplete or imprecise information and one of its important applications is feature selection. In this paper, rough set theory and support vector machines are combined to construct a classification model to classify the data of E-bussiness effectively.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Nalindren Naicker ◽  
Timothy Adeliyi ◽  
Jeanette Wing

Educational Data Mining (EDM) is a rich research field in computer science. Tools and techniques in EDM are useful to predict student performance which gives practitioners useful insights to develop appropriate intervention strategies to improve pass rates and increase retention. The performance of the state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers is very much dependent on the task at hand. Investigating support vector machines has been used extensively in classification problems; however, the extant of literature shows a gap in the application of linear support vector machines as a predictor of student performance. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of linear support vector machines with the performance of the state-of-the-art classical machine learning algorithms in order to determine the algorithm that would improve prediction of student performance. In this quantitative study, an experimental research design was used. Experiments were set up using feature selection on a publicly available dataset of 1000 alpha-numeric student records. Linear support vector machines benchmarked with ten categorical machine learning algorithms showed superior performance in predicting student performance. The results of this research showed that features like race, gender, and lunch influence performance in mathematics whilst access to lunch was the primary factor which influences reading and writing performance.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Yepes-Calderon ◽  
Fabian Pedregosa ◽  
Bertrand Thirion ◽  
Yalin Wang ◽  
Natasha Lepore

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1141-1160
Author(s):  
Tomás Alegre Sepúlveda ◽  
Brian Keith Norambuena

In this paper, we apply sentiment analysis methods in the context of the first round of the 2017 Chilean elections. The purpose of this work is to estimate the voting intention associated with each candidate in order to contrast this with the results from classical methods (e.g., polls and surveys). The data are collected from Twitter, because of its high usage in Chile and in the sentiment analysis literature. We obtained tweets associated with the three main candidates: Sebastián Piñera (SP), Alejandro Guillier (AG) and Beatriz Sánchez (BS). For each candidate, we estimated the voting intention and compared it to the traditional methods. To do this, we first acquired the data and labeled the tweets as positive or negative. Afterward, we built a model using machine learning techniques. The classification model had an accuracy of 76.45% using support vector machines, which yielded the best model for our case. Finally, we use a formula to estimate the voting intention from the number of positive and negative tweets for each candidate. For the last period, we obtained a voting intention of 35.84% for SP, compared to a range of 34–44% according to traditional polls and 36% in the actual elections. For AG we obtained an estimate of 37%, compared with a range of 15.40% to 30.00% for traditional polls and 20.27% in the elections. For BS we obtained an estimate of 27.77%, compared with the range of 8.50% to 11.00% given by traditional polls and an actual result of 22.70% in the elections. These results are promising, in some cases providing an estimate closer to reality than traditional polls. Some differences can be explained due to the fact that some candidates have been omitted, even though they held a significant number of votes.


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