scholarly journals Integrating animal movement with habitat suitability for estimating dynamic migratory connectivity

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 879-893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariëlle L. van Toor ◽  
Bart Kranstauber ◽  
Scott H. Newman ◽  
Diann J. Prosser ◽  
John Y. Takekawa ◽  
...  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariëlle L. van Toor ◽  
Bart Kranstauber ◽  
Scott H. Newman ◽  
Diann J. Prosser ◽  
John Y. Takekawa ◽  
...  

AbstractContextHigh-resolution animal movement data are becoming increasingly available, yet having a multitude of empirical trajectories alone does not allow us to easily predict animal movement. To answer ecological and evolutionary questions at a population level, quantitative estimates of a species’ potential to link patches or populations are of importance.ObjectivesWe introduce an approach that combines movement-informed simulated trajectories with an environment-informed estimate of the trajectories’ plausibility to derive connectivity. Using the example of bar-headed geese we estimated migratory connectivity at a landscape level throughout the annual cycle in their native range.MethodsWe used tracking data of bar-headed geese to develop a multi-state movement model and to estimate temporally explicit habitat suitability within the species’ range. We simulated migratory movements between range fragments, and calculated a measure we called route viability. The results are compared to expectations derived from published literature.ResultsSimulated migrations matched empirical trajectories in key characteristics such as stopover duration. The viability of the simulated trajectories was similar to that of the empirical trajectories. We found that, overall, the migratory connectivity was higher within the breeding than in wintering areas, corresponding to previous findings for this species.ConclusionsWe show how empirical tracking data and environmental information can be fused for meaningful predictions of animal movements throughout the year and even outside the spatial range of the available data. Beyond predicting connectivity, our framework will prove useful for modelling ecological processes facilitated by animal movement, such as seed dispersal or disease ecology.


2020 ◽  
Vol 641 ◽  
pp. 159-175
Author(s):  
J Runnebaum ◽  
KR Tanaka ◽  
L Guan ◽  
J Cao ◽  
L O’Brien ◽  
...  

Bycatch remains a global problem in managing sustainable fisheries. A critical aspect of management is understanding the timing and spatial extent of bycatch. Fisheries management often relies on observed bycatch data, which are not always available due to a lack of reporting or observer coverage. Alternatively, analyzing the overlap in suitable habitat for the target and non-target species can provide a spatial management tool to understand where bycatch interactions are likely to occur. Potential bycatch hotspots based on suitable habitat were predicted for cusk Brosme brosme incidentally caught in the Gulf of Maine American lobster Homarus americanus fishery. Data from multiple fisheries-independent surveys were combined in a delta-generalized linear mixed model to generate spatially explicit density estimates for use in an independent habitat suitability index. The habitat suitability indices for American lobster and cusk were then compared to predict potential bycatch hotspot locations. Suitable habitat for American lobster has increased between 1980 and 2013 while suitable habitat for cusk decreased throughout most of the Gulf of Maine, except for Georges Basin and the Great South Channel. The proportion of overlap in suitable habitat varied interannually but decreased slightly in the spring and remained relatively stable in the fall over the time series. As Gulf of Maine temperatures continue to increase, the interactions between American lobster and cusk are predicted to decline as cusk habitat continues to constrict. This framework can contribute to fisheries managers’ understanding of changes in habitat overlap as climate conditions continue to change and alter where bycatch interactions could occur.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-172
Author(s):  
Yun-Jin Shim ◽  
Yong-Su Park ◽  
Rae-Ha Jang ◽  
Young-Jun Yoon ◽  
Sun- Ryoung Kim ◽  
...  

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Larson ◽  
William D. Dijak ◽  
Frank R. III Thompson ◽  
Joshua J. Millspaugh

Author(s):  
Matthew C. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Aaron M. Ellison

Climatic change likely will exacerbate current threats to carnivorous plants. However, estimating the severity of climatic change is challenged by the unique ecology of carnivorous plants, including habitat specialization, dispersal limitation, small ranges, and small population sizes. We discuss and apply methods for modeling species distributions to overcome these challenges and quantify the vulnerability of carnivorous plants to rapid climatic change. Results suggest that climatic change will reduce habitat suitability for most carnivorous plants. Models also project increases in habitat suitability for many species, but the extent to which these increases may offset habitat losses will depend on whether individuals can disperse to and establish in newly suitable habitats outside of their current distribution. Reducing existing stressors and protecting habitats where numerous carnivorous plant species occur may ameliorate impacts of climatic change on this unique group of plants.


The Condor ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clark S Rushing ◽  
Aimee M Van Tatenhove ◽  
Andrew Sharp ◽  
Viviana Ruiz-Gutierrez ◽  
Mary C Freeman ◽  
...  

Abstract Archival geolocators have transformed the study of small, migratory organisms but analysis of data from these devices requires bias correction because tags are only recovered from individuals that survive and are re-captured at their tagging location. We show that integrating geolocator recovery data and mark–resight data enables unbiased estimates of both migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding populations and region-specific survival probabilities for wintering locations. Using simulations, we first demonstrate that an integrated Bayesian model returns unbiased estimates of transition probabilities between seasonal ranges. We also used simulations to determine how different sampling designs influence the estimability of transition probabilities. We then parameterized the model with tracking data and mark–resight data from declining Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) populations breeding in the eastern United States, hypothesized to be threatened by the illegal pet trade in parts of their Caribbean, nonbreeding range. Consistent with this hypothesis, we found that male buntings wintering in Cuba were 20% less likely to return to the breeding grounds than birds wintering elsewhere in their range. Improving inferences from archival tags through proper data collection and further development of integrated models will advance our understanding of the full annual cycle ecology of migratory species.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.


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