Hazardous weather events in the St Lawrence Valley from the French regime to Confederation: descriptive weather in historical records from Quebec City and Montreal, 1742–1869 and 1953—present

2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria C. Slonosky
Keyword(s):  
Quebec City ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Hazardous Weather ◽  
French Regime

The Public Response to Hazardous Weather Events: 25 Years of Research

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 669-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Sherman-Morris
Keyword(s):  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Formation Conditions and Short-Term Forecast of Convective Hazardous Weather Events in the Ural Region in the Warm Period of 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 250-262
Author(s):  
N. A. Kalinin ◽  
A. N. Shikhov ◽  
A. V. Bykov ◽  
A. A. Pomortseva ◽  
R. K. Abdullin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ural Region ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Formation Conditions ◽  
Hazardous Weather

A Real-Time Weather-Adaptive 3DVAR Analysis System for Severe Weather Detections and Warnings

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 727-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Travis M. Smith ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Chenghao Fu ◽  
Kristin Calhoun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Weather Situation ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Abstract A real-time, weather-adaptive three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system has been adapted for the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project to incorporate all available radar observations within a moveable analysis domain. The key features of the system include 1) incorporating radar observations from multiple Weather Surveillance Radars-1988 Doppler (WSR-88Ds) with NCEP forecast products as a background state, 2) the ability to automatically detect and analyze severe local hazardous weather events at 1-km horizontal resolution every 5 min in real time based on the current weather situation, and 3) the identification of strong circulation patterns embedded in thunderstorms. Although still in the early development stage, the system performed very well within the NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Warning Program during preliminary testing in spring 2010 when many severe weather events were successfully detected and analyzed. This study represents a first step in the assessment of this type of 3DVAR analysis for use in severe weather warnings. The eventual goal of this real-time 3DVAR system is to help meteorologists better track severe weather events and eventually provide better warning information to the public, ultimately saving lives and reducing property damage.

scholarly journals Post Hoc Evaluation of Hazardous Weather: Snowstorms in the Montréal, Québec, Area in March 2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Descurieux
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Powerful Analytical Tool ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Abstract The post hoc evaluation of meteorological events that have severe consequences for individuals, property, economic activities, and the environment is a powerful analytical tool. The paper provides a factual and evidence-based analytical framework for the study of hazardous weather events that have major social, economic, and environmental effects. It is a process that seeks to improve and to determine the relevance of services. The analysis of the winter storms that hit the Montréal area in early March 2008 examines the relationship between the storms, the collapse of 18 roofs, the death of 3 persons, and the closure of more than 200 schools. It highlights the limited perception of the risks associated with unusual and severe winter weather. It reveals the lack of attention given in meteorology to the important paradigmatic relationship that exists between the weather elements, the associated risk factors, and the ensuing impacts. This study reveals the need for improvements in meteorological services related to risk communication and knowledge management.

scholarly journals Connecting the Dots: A Communications Model of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team during the 15 May 2013 Tornado Outbreak

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 233-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Melissa Huffman ◽  
Jennifer Dunn ◽  
Mark Fox
Keyword(s):  
Direct Result ◽  
North Texas ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Central Texas ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Connecting The Dots ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Abstract On 15 May 2013, 19 tornadoes occurred across north and central Texas, killing 6, injuring over 50, and causing more than $100 million in property damage. The majority of the impacts to life and property were the direct result of category-3 and category-4 enhanced Fujita scale (EF-3 and EF-4) tornadoes that affected the communities of Cleburne and Granbury, Texas. This study focuses on an examination of the north Texas integrated warning team (IWT) communications through a thorough analysis of interactions between IWT members during this event. Communications from all members of the IWT were collected and organized so that a quantitative analysis of the IWT communications network could be performed. The results of this analysis were used to identify strengths and weaknesses of current IWT communications to improve the consistency of hazardous weather messaging for future high-impact weather events. The results also show how effectively communicating within an IWT leads not only to more consistent messaging but also to broader dissemination of hazardous weather information to the public. The analysis techniques outlined in this study could serve as a model for comprehensive studies of IWTs across the country.

scholarly journals Development of a Human–Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 715-737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Karstens ◽  
James Correia ◽  
Daphne S. LaDue ◽  
Jonathan Wolfe ◽  
Tiffany C. Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Paradigm ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Environmental Threats ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Levels Of Automation ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Convective Weather ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Abstract Providing advance warning for impending severe convective weather events (i.e., tornadoes, hail, wind) fundamentally requires an ability to predict and/or detect these hazards and subsequently communicate their potential threat in real time. The National Weather Service (NWS) provides advance warning for severe convective weather through the issuance of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, a system that has remained relatively unchanged for approximately the past 65 years. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) proposes a reinvention of this system, transitioning from a deterministic product-centric paradigm to one based on probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for hazardous weather events. Four years of iterative development and rapid prototyping in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) with NWS forecasters and partners has yielded insights into this new paradigm by discovering efficient ways to generate, inform, and utilize a continuous flow of information through the development of a human–machine mix. Forecasters conditionally used automated object-based guidance within four levels of automation to issue deterministic products containing PHI. Forecasters accomplished this task in a timely manner while focusing on communication and conveying forecast confidence, elements considered necessary by emergency managers. Observed annual increases in the usage of first-guess probabilistic guidance by forecasters were related to improvements made to the prototyped software, guidance, and techniques. However, increasing usage of automation requires improvements in guidance, data integration, and data visualization to garner trust more effectively. Additional opportunities exist to address limitations in procedures for motion derivation and geospatial mapping of subjective probability.

scholarly journals The relevance of local magnetic records when using extreme space weather events as benchmarks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Saiz ◽  
Consuelo Cid ◽  
Antonio Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Magnetic Response ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Longitudinal Asymmetry ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Magnetic Observatories ◽  
Extreme Space Weather Events

Space weather indices introduced for scientific purposes are commonly used to quantify operational nowcast of  the geospace state during extreme space weather events. Some indices, such as the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index, have been applied to situations for which they are not originally intended. This raises a question about suitability as a space weather benchmark. In analysing historical records for different magnetometers at low- and mid-latitude, we find periods with longitudinal asymmetry in magnetic response that suggest important signals from individual magnetometers are being averaged out of the Dst record. This asymmetry develops as a double spike in the H-component: one negative in the observatories in the day sector and one positive in the observatories in the night sector. These spikes develop in short-time (about 2 hours) and pose a potential hazardous effect for users affected by space weather. The results from historical events have been reinforced with the systematic study of magnetic records during extreme events (Dst ≤ -200 nT and AL ≤ -2000 nT) in the period 1998-2017 from six magnetic observatories at about 40° magnetic latitude. Moreover, we show that the largest asymmetries take place during the early main phase and are recorded in narrow local time sectors. An important outcome of these results is that space weather benchmarks should be based on local records instead of the commonly used global indices. This action improves two important aspects of space weather: the assessment of historical extreme events and that of the needs of users.

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