scholarly journals Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm

Author(s):  
Glenn Lyons ◽  
Greg Marsden

AbstractSince the 1960s, development of the transport system has been framed by the notion of forecasting future demand. Yet the past decade or more appears to signal some significant changes to the role of travel in society which are having a material impact on how much people travel (and may travel in the future). Coupled with the potential for major technological changes and a range of climate adaptation scenarios, the future of mobility presents today’s decision making on transport strategy and investment with a broader set of uncertainties than has previously been considered. This paper examines current mainstream practice for incorporating uncertainty into decision-making, through an illustrative case study of the highly codified approaches of the Department for Transport in England. It deconstructs the issue by first focussing on different ways in which there is an opening out or acceptance of new uncertainties and how this creates a (wider) set of potential futures. It then turns to consider how this set of futures is used, or not, in decision-making, i.e. the process of closing down uncertainty to arrive at or at least inform a decision. We demonstrate that, because the range of uncertainties has broadened in scope and scale, the traditional technocratic approach of closing down decisions through sensitivity testing is at odds with the greater breadth now being called for at the opening out stage. We conclude that transport decision-making would benefit from a rebalancing of technical depth with analytical breadth. The paper outlines a plausible new approach to opening out and closing down that is starting to be applied in practice. This approach must be accompanied by an opening up of the processes by which technical advice for decisions are reached and how uncertainties are understood and negotiated.

Author(s):  
Danita Catherine Burke

Abstract The Arctic Council is frequently called a unique forum but, as this article argues, clubs are common in international politics and in many respects the Arctic Council is a club. This article explores the questions: Why are the Arctic states acting like a club in Arctic politics, and how do internal hierarchies influence how clubs make decisions? As the article illustrates, clubs are the stage for club diplomacy and, in club diplomacy, hierarchies play an important role. Using the Arctic Council as an illustrative case study, this article argues that clubs have internal hierarchies that inform their decision-making processes and their responses to challenges to their status. When clubs try to deal with subjects that extend beyond the boundaries of the sovereignty of club members and the parameters of club membership, club members may suffer from a lack of status and legitimacy to unilaterally deal with the subject.


2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Wilkinson

It is said that the battle for sustainability will be won or lost in the world's cities and a major tactic in this challenge will be the sustainable adaptation of existing buildings. Evidence based decision-making tools are required for the management of built assets. This research examined every building adaptation event between 1998 and 2008 with the relative importance of property attributes derived using a principal component analysis (PCA), from which a weighted index of optimal decision- making attributes in a predictive model was proposed; the Preliminary Assessment Adaptation Model (PAAM). The model is discussed and applied in an illustrative case study. Given further development and testing the PAAM might be useable by non-experts and property managers to appraise the suitability of a building for potential adaptation.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie Williams

Drawing on new and established approaches to film costume, this article examines the creative work of the costume designer, contextualizing it as a gendered profession. It takes the career of the British film costume designer Julie Harris as its illustrative case study, tracing her working practice and sense of creative agency through interviews and press coverage as well as the BFI's extensive collection of her annotated costume sketches. Special emphasis is placed on Harris's negotiation of changing modes of postwar British film production, and her management of the professional tensions between costuming in the service of narrative or costuming as spectacle—in Stella Bruzzi's words, the dilemma of whether to look at or through the clothes on-screen. It culminates in a detailed analysis of Harris's Oscar-winning costume work for Darling (1965) and her ambivalence toward the youth-oriented off-the-rack fashions of the 1960s. In conclusion, it emphasizes the significance and complexity of the costume designer's creative labor, and the need for that work to be granted greater visibility.


Author(s):  
Xavier Guillaume ◽  
Kyle Grayson

Abstract Sound matters for international political sociology. Drawing upon literature from cultural geography and sound studies, we argue that sound contributes to political dynamics that are constitutive of world politics. To capture these dynamics, we offer a set of conceptual frameworks to analyze sound. First, we differentiate the concept of sound from noise and show the importance of doing so. Second, we introduce “sonic formations” as a means of capturing how sound contributes to world politics. Third, we make the case for analyzing sound's historicity, adaptability, relationality, and performativity (SHARP) in any given context. Fourth, using sonic formations and the SHARP framework, we examine an illustrative case study: the nuclear deterrence and non-proliferation regimes. By focusing on the role of sound in these regimes, our preliminary findings demonstrate the utility for the field of undertaking additional work to capture the wider significance of sound. This includes its contributions to shaping relations of power.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 959-975
Author(s):  
Therese Ferguson ◽  
Carmel Geneva Roofe

Purpose The purpose of this case study is to focus on the role of higher education in the realisation of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4, discussing both challenges and opportunities. Drawing on the example of The University of the West Indies (UWI) School of Education (SOE) (Mona Campus in Jamaica), this paper illustrates how higher education can move SDG 4 forward in a realistic and significant way. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the literature and case study experiences implementing education for sustainable development-related activities within a SOE, opportunities and challenges regarding SDG 4 and higher education institutions (HEIs) are identified and outlined. The SOE at the UWI campus is used as an illustrative case study to highlight the ways in which HEIs can drive SDG 4 through teaching, programme and course development, research and outreach activities. Findings Based on the literature examined, along with the case study, the paper argues that HEIs must help to shape and lead the SDG 4 agenda by being integrally involved and no longer watching from the side lines. A framework to aid HEIs in achieving outcomes associated with SDG 4 is then proffered. The intent is that this will not only help shape discourse but also shape actions, as the demand for higher education increases across the globe. Originality/value This paper uses a Caribbean regional HEI as the basis for the framework proposed to aid HEIs in achieving SDG 4 outcomes. This brings to the fore discourse from the global south, as space that is often missing from the discussion.


Author(s):  
Michael Adler

This chapter considers the future of administrative justice. Using the United Kingdom as a case study, it argues that the rise and fall of administrative justice can be likened to the swing of a pendulum. It considers first-instance decision-making, the role of outsourcing, the expanding role of administrative review and its implications for administrative justice, the decline of tribunals and the rise of ombudsmen, the effectiveness of oversight arrangements, and the impact of digitalisation. It concludes that the future of administrative justice in the United Kingdom is unlikely to involve a replay of anything that has been encountered in the past.


Author(s):  
Daryl Powell

In the 1960s and 1970s, two major thinkers were actively changing the face of manufacturing for decades to come – In the West it was Joe Orlicky with the creation of his MRP concept, whilst to the East it was Taiichi Ohno and the development of Kanban. However, since the two approaches were independently developed for managing production and inventory control, both are often mistaken as mutually exclusive. This chapter addresses the developments in both fields, and through considering the shortcomings of each of the approaches, suggests how MRP logic and Kanban can be combined and integrated to enable a more effective, “hybrid” production and inventory management system that exploits the advantages of each of the techniques. A framework is presented for the integration of MRP and Kanban, which gives details of the purpose of the master production schedule, documents the two primary roles of inventory management considerations, and explains how Kanban operates in such a system in order to eliminate non-value-adding activities and to simplify the production management task. An illustrative case study is also presented in order to give insight to the reader as to how such a “hybrid” system operates in practice, offering practical examples regarding how techniques such as production leveling (Heijunka), net-requirements planning, backflushing, and cost-accounting operate in an integrated MRP-Kanban system.


2019 ◽  
Vol 162 ◽  
pp. 555-561
Author(s):  
Gabriel Neagu ◽  
Marilena Ianculescu ◽  
Adriana Alexandru ◽  
Vladimir Florian ◽  
Constanța Zoie Rădulescu

1992 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 486-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Massey

THIS ARTICLE COMPARES THE US AND BRITISH EXPERIENCE OF privatization policies. In both countries there is no ‘proof’ that privatization has led to any empirically measurable benefit, or that the new structures are necessarily more consumer-oriented. First the perceived need for change in the public sector is explored, outlining the dynamic provided by the New Right. Next the importance of managerial and professional power to this process of change is explained, before the role of privatization as a ‘cutting edge’ used by liberal/conservative governments (that is governments conventionally labelled as conservative, but which have adopted ideologically liberal policies) is discussed. The paper concludes with an illustrative case study of the privatization of the British Electricity Supply Industry.


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