Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model

2014 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 2417-2427 ◽  
Author(s):  
JieHua Ma ◽  
HuiJun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Design And Testing

scholarly journals Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3973-3987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Wetzel ◽  
Ernst Maier-Reimer ◽  
Michael Botzet ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Marine Biology ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Coupled Climate Model

Abstract The influence of phytoplankton on the seasonal cycle and the mean global climate is investigated in a fully coupled climate model. The control experiment uses a fixed attenuation depth for shortwave radiation, while the attenuation depth in the experiment with biology is derived from phytoplankton concentrations simulated with a marine biogeochemical model coupled online to the ocean model. Some of the changes in the upper ocean are similar to the results from previous studies that did not use interactive atmospheres, for example, amplification of the seasonal cycle; warming in upwelling regions, such as the equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Sea; and reduction in sea ice cover in the high latitudes. In addition, positive feedbacks within the climate system cause a global shift of the seasonal cycle. The onset of spring is about 2 weeks earlier, which results in a more realistic representation of the seasons. Feedback mechanisms, such as increased wind stress and changes in the shortwave radiation, lead to significant warming in the midlatitudes in summer and to seasonal modifications of the overall warming in the equatorial Pacific. Temperature changes also occur over land where they are sometimes even larger than over the ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the strength of interannual SST variability is reduced by about 10%–15% and phase locking to the annual cycle is improved. The ENSO spectral peak is broader than in the experiment without biology and the dominant ENSO period is increased to around 5 yr. Also the skewness of ENSO variability is slightly improved. All of these changes lead to the conclusion that the influence of marine biology on the radiative budget of the upper ocean should be considered in detailed simulations of the earth’s climate.

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2723-2735 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Baehr ◽  
K. Fröhlich ◽  
M. Botzet ◽  
D. I. V. Domeisen ◽  
L. Kornblueh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Coupled Climate Model

Heinrich Stadials: Globa Climate Impacts and the "Bipolar Seesaw" Phase Relationsip

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Peltier ◽  
Jesse velay-Vitow ◽  
Deepak Chandan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Heinrich Event ◽  
Freshwater Forcing ◽  
Isotopic Records

<p>With the recent demonstration that millennial timescale Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations of MIS 3 are predictable in a modern coupled climate model following a Heinrich event-like reduction of AMOC strength (eg. Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), the stage was set for a renewed attack upon the physics of H-events themselves (see Velay-Vitow et al, 2019, JGR-Oceans). This predicts that the freshwater forcing of the AMOC by individual H-events will be on the order of 0.1 Sv and to be maintained for a period between 500 years and 1500 years in accord with data-based inferences (Hemming, 2004). Whereas in the original analysis of H-event induced D-O oscillations the D-O initiating H-event appeared simply as a sharp reduction in AMOC strength in the spin-up of the coupled model, in the work to be reported we transform the pseudo H-event into one that involves explicit freshwater forcing applied at a strength and over a range of times in accord with observational constraints. This has enabled a detailed analysis of the global climate impacts of these events as represented in the coupled climate model that we continue to employ. A critical focus of this analysis is upon the phase relationship between events recorded in the oxygen isotopic records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, analyses which demonstrate that this phase relationship is set by the D-O initiating Heinrich event. We also address the expected global climate impacts of stadial-interstadial transitions and provide an initial discussion of these impacts with those recorded in speliothems and other archives.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Predictions for Ludhiana District of Indian Punjab under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

2019 ◽  
pp. 128-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehraj U. Din Dar ◽  
Rajan Aggarwal ◽  
Samanpreet Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Global Food

Climate change poses significant threats to global food security and water resources. In a present study, a Global Climate Model HAD GEM2-ES under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 was used for climate prediction study. The study spanned 46 years of baseline (1970-2015) as well as two future periods’ mid-century (MC) (2020-2050) and end century EC (2060-2090). The results showed that the temperature would increase by 1.56°C and rainfall would decrease by 98 mm in MC (2020-2050); and 3.11°C and 90 mm in EC (2060-2090), respectively under RCP 4.5. In RCP 8.5 the increase in temperature and rainfall was 2.75°C and 153 mm, respectively in MC and the corresponding values in EC was 5.46°C and 251 mm, respectively.

Multi-year predictability of Colorado River water supply using a drift-free decadal climate prediction system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto ◽  
Simon Wang ◽  
Matt Yost ◽  
Larissa Yocom ◽  
Robert Gillies
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Decadal Climate Prediction

<p>Skillful multi-year climate forecasts provide crucial information for decision-makers and resource managers to mitigate water scarcity. Yet, such forecasts remain challenging due to unpredictable weather noise and the lack of dynamical model capability. In this research, we demonstrate that the annual water supply of the Colorado River in the United States is predictable up to several years in advance by a drift-free decadal climate prediction system using a fully coupled climate model. Observational analyses and model experiments show that prolonged shortages of water supply in the Colorado River are significantly linked to sea surface temperature precursors, including tropical Pacific cooling, North Pacific warming, and southern tropical Atlantic warming. In the Colorado River basin, the water deficits can reduce crop yield and increase wildfire potential. Thus, a multi-year prediction of severe water shortages in the Colorado River basin could be useful as an early indicator of subsequent agricultural loss and wildfire risk.</p>

High bit rate ACTS experiments for performing global science - Keck Telescope and global climate model

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry Bergman ◽  
J. Gary ◽  
Burt Edelson ◽  
Neil Helm ◽  
Judith Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Bit Rate ◽  
Global Science ◽  
High Bit Rate

scholarly journals A realistic Greenland ice sheet and surrounding glaciers and ice caps melting in a coupled climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Devilliers ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Juliette Mignot ◽  
Julie Deshayes ◽  
Gilles Garric ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Ice Caps

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals A comparison of ship and satellite measurements of cloud properties with global climate model simulations in the southeast Pacific stratus deck

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 6527-6536 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Brunke ◽  
S. P. de Szoeke ◽  
P. Zuidema ◽  
X. Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Southeast Pacific ◽  
Cloud Thickness

Abstract. Here, liquid water path (LWP), cloud fraction, cloud top height, and cloud base height retrieved by a suite of A-train satellite instruments (the CPR aboard CloudSat, CALIOP aboard CALIPSO, and MODIS aboard Aqua) are compared to ship observations from research cruises made in 2001 and 2003–2007 into the stratus/stratocumulus deck over the southeast Pacific Ocean. It is found that CloudSat radar-only LWP is generally too high over this region and the CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud bases are too low. This results in a relationship (LWP~h9) between CloudSat LWP and CALIPSO cloud thickness (h) that is very different from the adiabatic relationship (LWP~h2) from in situ observations. Such biases can be reduced if LWPs suspected to be contaminated by precipitation are eliminated, as determined by the maximum radar reflectivity Zmax>−15 dBZ in the apparent lower half of the cloud, and if cloud bases are determined based upon the adiabatically-determined cloud thickness (h~LWP1/2). Furthermore, comparing results from a global model (CAM3.1) to ship observations reveals that, while the simulated LWP is quite reasonable, the model cloud is too thick and too low, allowing the model to have LWPs that are almost independent of h. This model can also obtain a reasonable diurnal cycle in LWP and cloud fraction at a location roughly in the centre of this region (20° S, 85° W) but has an opposite diurnal cycle to those observed aboard ship at a location closer to the coast (20° S, 75° W). The diurnal cycle at the latter location is slightly improved in the newest version of the model (CAM4). However, the simulated clouds remain too thick and too low, as cloud bases are usually at or near the surface.

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