scholarly journals A surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Naureen ◽  
H. Johansson ◽  
R. Iqbal ◽  
L. Jafri ◽  
A. H. Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fracture Probability ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Death Risk ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Indian Men ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Summary A surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan has been constructed using age-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age-specific mortality rates from Pakistan. Introduction FRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fracture. In such circumstances, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation have recommended the development of a surrogate FRAX model, based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country. Objective This paper describes the development and characteristics of a surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan. Methods The FRAX model used the ethnic-specific incidence of hip fracture in Indian men and women living in Singapore, combined with the death risk for Pakistan. Results The surrogate model gave somewhat lower 10-year fracture probabilities for men and women at all ages compared to the model for Indians from Singapore, reflecting a higher mortality risk in Pakistan. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (r ≥ 0.998) so that the use of the Pakistan model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 36,524 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in Pakistan, with a predicted increase by 214% to 114,820 in 2050. Conclusion The surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan provides an opportunity to determine fracture probability within the Pakistan population and help guide decisions about treatment.

scholarly journals A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Lesnyak ◽  
A. Zakroyeva ◽  
O. Lobanchenko ◽  
H. Johansson ◽  
E. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
International Society ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Fracture Probability ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Death Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Neighbouring Country ◽  
Country Specific ◽  
Kyrgyz Population

Abstract Summary The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Introduction The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country. Objective This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Methods The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic. Results Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75–80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050. Conclusion The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.

scholarly journals Stroke Mortality Trends in the Population of Klaipėda From 1994 to 2008

Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrikas Kazlauskas ◽  
Nijolė Raškauskienė ◽  
Rima Radžiuvienė ◽  
Vinsas Janušonis
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
World Population ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Elderly Men ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Permanent Residents

The objective of the study was to evaluate the trends in stroke mortality in the population of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years from 1994 to 2008. Material and Methods. Mortality data on all permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died from stroke in 1994–2008 were gathered for the study. All death certificates of permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died during 1994–2008 were examined in this study. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 codes 430–436, and ICD-10 codes I60–I64) was used. Sex-specific mortality rates were standardized according to the Segi’s world population; all the mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 population per year. Trends in stroke mortality were estimated using log-linear regression models. Sex-specific mortality rates and trends were calculated for 3 age groups (35–79, 35–64, and 65–79 years). Results. During the entire study period (1994–2008), a marked decline in stroke mortality with a clear slowdown after 2002 was observed. The average annual percent changes in mortality rates for men and women aged 35–79 years were –4.6% (P=0.041) and –6.5% (P=0.002), respectively. From 1994 to 2002, the stroke mortality rate decreased consistently among both Klaipėda men and women aged 35–64 years (20.4% per year, P=0.002, and 14.7% per year, P=0.006, respectively) and in the elderly population aged 65–79 years (13.8% per year, P=0.005; and 12% per year, P=0.019). During 2003–2008, stroke mortality increased by 16.3% per year in middle-aged men (35–64 years), whereas among women (aged 35–64 and 65–79 years) and elderly men (aged 65–79 years), the age-adjusted mortality rate remained relatively unchanged. Conclusions. Among both men and women, the mortality rates from stroke sharply declined between 1994 and 2008 with a clear slowdown in the decline after 2002. Stroke mortality increased significantly among middle-aged men from 2003, while it remained without significant changes among women of the same age and both elderly men and women.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of a FRAX model for Uzbekistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
O Lesnyak ◽  
S Ismailov ◽  
M Shakirova ◽  
N Alikhanova ◽  
A Zakroyeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fracture Probability ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
National Mortality ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Country Specific ◽  
Population Based Survey

Abstract Summary A prospective population-based survey in a region of the Republic of Uzbekistan determined the incidence of fractures at the hip. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to facilitate fracture risk assessment in Uzbekistan. Objective This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fracture in the Republic of Uzbekistan that was used to develop a country-specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction. Methods During a 1-year (2016/17) prospective population-based survey in the Pap district of the Republic of Uzbekistan, hip fractures were prospectively identified from hospital registers, trauma centres and primary care and community sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Uzbekistan. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring Kazakhstan and Kyrgystan. Results Approximately 41% of hip fracture cases did not come to medical attention, and two thirds of patients overall were not admitted to hospital. The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 16,764 and is predicted to increase more than three-fold to 60,272 in 2050. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Uzbekistan than Kazakhstan or Kyrgystan. Conclusion The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Uzbek population and help guide decisions about treatment.

scholarly journals Increasing Education-Based Disparities in Healthy Life Expectancy Among U.S. Non-Hispanic Whites, 2000–2010

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Cantu ◽  
Connor M Sheehan ◽  
Isaac Sasson ◽  
Mark D Hayward
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Activities Of Daily Living ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
White Men ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Healthy Life ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Disability Prevalence ◽  
College Educated

Abstract Objectives To examine changes in Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) against the backdrop of rising mortality among less educated white Americans during the first decade of the 21st century. Method This study documented changes in HLE by education among U.S. non-Hispanic whites, using data from the U.S. Multiple Cause of Death public-use files, the Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) of the 2000 Census and the 2010 American Community Survey, and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Changes in HLE were decomposed into contributions from: (1) change in age-specific mortality rates; and (2) change in disability prevalence, measured via Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). Results Between 2000 and 2010, HLE significantly decreased for white men and women with less than 12 years of schooling. By contrast, HLE increased among college-educated white men and women. Declines or stagnation in HLE among less educated whites reflected increases in disability prevalence over the study period, whereas improvements among the college educated reflected decreases in both age-specific mortality rates and disability prevalence at older ages. Discussion Differences in HLE between education groups increased among non-Hispanic whites from 2000 to 2010. In fact, education-based differences in HLE were larger than differences in total life expectancy. Thus, the lives of less educated whites were not only shorter, on average, compared with their college-educated counterparts, but they were also more burdened with disability.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Moldova and development of a country-specific FRAX model

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla Zakroyeva ◽  
Olga Lesnyak ◽  
Victor Cazac ◽  
Liliana Groppa ◽  
Eugen Russu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Osteoporotic Fractures ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fracture Probability ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
National Mortality ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Specific Fracture ◽  
Country Specific ◽  
Population Based Survey

Abstract Summary Retrospective population-based survey in 2 regions of the Republic of Moldova determined the incidence of fractures at the hip, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The estimated number of such fractures nationwide for 2015 was 11,271 and is predicted to increase to 15,863 in 2050. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX model to help guide decisions about treatment. Objective This paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in Republic of Moldova that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool. Methods We carried out a retrospective population-based survey in 2 regions of the Republic of Moldova (Anenii Noi district and Orhei district) representing approximately 6% of the country’s population. We identified hip, forearm and humerus fractures in 2011 and 2012 from hospital registers and primary care sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Moldova. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models. Results The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 3911 and is predicted to increase by 60% to 6492 in 2050. Hip fracture incidence was a good predictor of forearm and humeral fractures. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Moldova than neighbouring countries (Ukraine and Romania). Conclusion The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Moldavan population and help guide decisions about treatment.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends in Unintentional Fall Mortality in China: A Population-Based Age-Period-Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenkun Wang ◽  
Youzhen Hu ◽  
Fang Peng
Keyword(s):  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Unintentional Falls

Background: Unintentional falls seriously threaten the life and health of people in China. This study aimed to assess the long-term trends of mortality from unintentional falls in China and to examine the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects behind them.Methods: This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study of Chinese people aged 0–84 years was a secondary analysis of the mortality data of fall injuries from 1990 to 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized mortality rates of unintentional falls by year, sex, and age group were used as the main outcomes and were analyzed within the age-period-cohort framework.Results: Although the crude mortality rates of unintentional falls for men and women showed a significant upward trend, the age-standardized mortality rates for both sexes only increased slightly. The net drift of unintentional fall mortality was 0.13% (95% CI, −0.04 to 0.3%) per year for men and −0.71% (95% CI, −0.96 to −0.46%) per year for women. The local drift values for both sexes increased with age group. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were found behind the mortality trends of the unintentional falls for both sexes in China.Conclusions: Unintentional falls are still a major public health problem that disproportionately threatens the lives of men and women in China. Efforts should be put in place urgently to prevent the growing number of fall-related mortality for men over 40 years old and women over 70 years old. Gains observed in the recent period, relative risks (RRs), and cohort RRs may be related to improved healthcare and better education.

scholarly journals Differential privacy in the 2020 Census will distort COVID-19 rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hauer ◽  
Alexis R Santos-Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Differential Privacy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Us Census ◽  
Population Counts

Scientists and policy makers rely on accurate population and mortality data to inform efforts regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with age-specific mortality rates of high importance due to the concentration of COVID-19 deaths at older ages. Population counts – the principal denominators for calculating age-specific mortality rates – will be subject to noise infusion in the United States with the 2020 Census via a disclosure avoidance system based on differential privacy. Using COVID-19 mortality curves from the CDC, we show that differential privacy will introduce substantial distortion in COVID-19 mortality rates – sometimes causing mortality rates to exceed 100\% -- hindering our ability to understand the pandemic. This distortion is particularly large for population groupings with fewer than 1000 persons – 40\% of all county-level age-sex groupings and 60\% of race groupings. The US Census Bureau should consider a larger privacy budget and data users should consider pooling data to increase population sizes to minimize differential privacy’s distortion.

scholarly journals Sex-specific and age-specific suicide mortality by method in 58 countries between 2000 and 2015

2020 ◽  
pp. injuryprev-2019-043601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Wu ◽  
David C Schwebel ◽  
Yun Huang ◽  
Peishan Ning ◽  
Peixia Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Suicide Method ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Binomial Models ◽  
Country Specific

ObjectiveTo examine recent changes in sex-specific and age-specific suicide mortality by method across countries.MethodsUsing mortality data from the WHO mortality database, we compared sex-specific, age-specific and country-specific suicide mortality by method between 2000 and 2015. We considered seven major suicide methods: poisoning by pesticides, all other poisoning, firearms and explosives, hanging, jumping from height, drowning and other methods. Changes in suicide mortality were quantified using negative binomial models among three age groups (15–44 years, 45–64 years, and 65 years and above) for males and females separately.ResultsSuicide mortality declined substantially for both sexes and all three age groups studied in 37 of the 58 included countries between 2000 and 2015. Males consistently had much higher suicide mortality rates than females in all 58 countries. Hanging was the most common suicide method in the majority of 58 countries. Sex-specific suicide mortality varied across 58 countries significantly for all three age groups. The spectrum of suicide method generally remained stable for 28 of 58 included countries; notable changes occurred in the other 30 countries, including especially Colombia, Finland and Trinidad and Tobago.ConclusionLikely as a result of prevention efforts as well as sociodemographic changes, suicide mortality decreased substantially in 37 of the included 58 countries between 2000 and 2015. Further actions are needed to explore specific drivers of the recent changes (particularly for increases in eight countries), to understand substantial disparities in suicide rates across countries, and to develop interventions to reduce suicide rates globally.

scholarly journals Credible Regression Approaches to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apostolos Bozikas ◽  
Georgios Pitselis
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Extrapolation Methods ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Specific Mortality

In this paper, we propose a credible regression approach with random coefficients to model and forecast the mortality dynamics of a given population with limited data. Age-specific mortality rates are modelled and extrapolation methods are utilized to estimate future mortality rates. The results on Greek mortality data indicate that credibility regression contributed to more accurate forecasts than those produced from the Lee–Carter and Cairns–Blake–Dowd models. An application on pricing insurance-related products is also provided.

scholarly journals Forecasting Hungarian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter method

2007 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Baran ◽  
J. Gáll ◽  
M. Ispány ◽  
G. Pap
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Carter Model

A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003. The model fitted to the data of the period 1949–2003 forecasts increasing mortality rates for men between ages 45 and 55, pointing out that the Lee-Carter method is hardly applicable for countries where mortality rates exhibit trends as peculiar as in Hungary. However, models fitted to the data for the last 15 years both for men and women forecast decreasing trends similarly to the case of countries where the method was successfully applied. Hence one gets a better fit in this way, however, further concerns suggest that the Lee-Carter model, which is celebrated and widely used in actuarial practice, does not necessarily give sufficiently good prediction.

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