Biosecurity and post-arrival pathways in New Zealand: relating alien organism detections to tourism indicators

Between-country tourism is established as a facilitator of the spread of invasive alien species; however, little attention has been paid to the question of whether tourism contributes to the arrival and subsequent dispersal of exotic organisms within national borders. To assess the strength of evidence that tourism is a driver for the accidental introducing and dispersal of exotic organisms, we sourced three national databases covering the years 2011 to 2017, namely international and domestic hotel guest nights and national population counts, along with records of exotic organism detections collected by the Ministry for Primary Industries, New Zealand’s government agency that oversees biosecurity. We fitted statistical models to assess the strength of the relationship between monthly exotic organism interception rate, guest nights and population, the latter as a baseline. The analysis showed that levels of incursion detection were significantly related to tourism records reflecting the travel of both international and domestic tourists, even when population was taken into account. There was also a significant positive statistical correlation between the levels of detection of exotic organisms and human population. The core take-home message is that a key indicator of within-country human population movement, namely the number of nights duration spent in specific accommodation, is statistically significantly correlated to the contemporaneous detection of exotic pests. We were unable to distinguish between the effects of international as opposed to domestic tourists. We conclude that this study provides evidence of impact of within-country movement upon the internal spread of exotic species, although important caveats need to be considered.

Evaluating the 0–10 Point Pain Scale on Adolescent Opioid Use in US Emergency Departments

Objective: To evaluate trends in national emergency department (ED) adolescent opioid use in relation to reported pain scores. Methods: A retrospective, cross-sectional analysis on National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) data was conducted on ED visits involving patients aged 11–21 from 2008–2017. Crude observational counts were extrapolated to weighted estimates matching total population counts. Multivariate models were used to evaluate the role of a pain score in the reported use of opioids. Anchors for pain scores were 0 (no pain) and 10 (worst pain imaginable). Results: 31,355 observations were captured, which were extrapolated by the NHAMCS to represent 162,515,943 visits nationwide. Overall, patients with a score of 10 were 1.35 times more likely to receive an opioid than patients scoring a 9, 41.7% (CI95 39.7–43.8%) and 31.0% (CI95 28.8–33.3%), respectively. Opioid use was significantly different between traditional pain score cutoffs of mild (1–3) and moderate pain (4–6), where scores of 4 were 1.76 times more likely to receive an opioid than scores of 3, 15.5% (CI95 13.7–17.3%) and 8.8% (CI95 7.1–10.6%), respectively. Scores of 7 were 1.33 times more likely to receive opioids than scores of 6, 24.7% (CI95 23.0–26.3%) and 18.5% (CI95 16.9–20.0%), respectively. Fractures had the highest likelihood of receiving an opioid, as 49.2% of adolescents with a fracture received an opioid (CI95 46.4–51.9%). Within this subgroup, only adolescents reporting a fracture pain score of 10 had significantly higher opioid use than adjacent pain scores, where fracture patients scoring a 10 were 1.4 times more likely to use opioids than those scoring 9, 82.2% (CI95 76.1–88.4%) and 59.8% (CI95 49.0–70.5%), respectively. Conclusions: While some guidelines in the adult population have revised cut-offs and groupings of the traditional tiers on a 0–10 point pain scale, the adolescent population may also require further examination to potentially warrant a similar adjustment.

Critical Galton–Watson Processes with Overlapping Generations

A properly scaled critical Galton–Watson process converges to a continuous state critical branching process ξ ⁢ ( ⋅ ) \xi(\,{\cdot}\,) as the number of initial individuals tends to infinity. We extend this classical result by allowing for overlapping generations and considering a wide class of population counts. The main result of the paper establishes a convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions for a scaled vector of multiple population counts. The set of the limiting distributions is conveniently represented in terms of integrals ( ∫ 0 y ξ ⁢ ( y - u ) ⁢ d u γ \int_{0}^{y}\xi(y-u)\,du^{\gamma} , y ≥ 0 y\geq 0 ) with a pertinent γ ≥ 0 \gamma\geq 0 .

A drone-based survey for large, basking freshwater turtle species

Conservation concerns are increasing for numerous freshwater turtle species, including Pseudemys gorzugi, which has led to a call for more research. However, traditional sampling methodologies are often time consuming, labor intensive, and invasive, restricting the amount of data that can be collected. Biases of traditional sampling methods can further impair the quality of the data collected, and these shortfalls may discourage their use. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, drones) for conducting wildlife surveys has recently demonstrated the potential to bridge gaps in data collection by offering a less labor intensive, minimally invasive, and more efficient process. Photographs and video can be obtained by camera attachments during a drone flight and analyzed to determine population counts, abundance, and other types of data. In this study we developed a detailed protocol to survey for large, freshwater turtle species in an arid, riverine landscape. This protocol was implemented with a DJI Matrice 600 Pro drone and a SONY ILCE α6000 digital camera to determine P. gorzugi and sympatric turtle species occurrence across 42 sites in southwestern Texas, USA. The use of a large drone and high-resolution camera resulted in high identification percentages, demonstrating the potential of drones to survey for large, freshwater turtle species. Numerous advantages to drone-based surveys were identified as well as some challenges, which were addressed with additional refinement of the protocol. Our data highlight the utility of drones for conducting freshwater turtle surveys and provide a guideline to those considering implementing drone-mounted high-resolution cameras as a survey tool.

Crítica al registro de nuevas incorporaciones urbanas

La expansión urbana, como uno de los tipos de crecimiento de la ciudad, es analizada a partir de las causas que originan diversas posibilidades de orientación y emplazamiento de la población, en función de sus capacidades socio económicas y preferencias en la selección del sitio para habitar. De esta forma, el espacio urbano dinamiza su configuración por la creación constante de unidades que se agregan a la ciudad inicial, ocupadas por población de diferentes estratos sociales pero con el común denominador de estar inmersos, en cualquiera de sus niveles, en la estructura económica urbana. En este sentido, se considera que el análisis del estado actual y el planteamiento de estrategias a futuro, requiere captar información cuantitativa del proceso de expansión generado, para entender al menos la dinámica urbana y tratar de ejercer un control sobre los ritmos y orientaciones de tal crecimiento. La propuesta planteada refiere a la formulación y sistematización de un registro de unidades propiciadas por expansión, a partir de hacer una lectura crítica reflexiva a la estadística demográfica oficial, cuyos intereses en los conteos de población -eficientes en sus fines- divergen del conocimiento fehaciente de las tendencias de expansión, al incrementar la población rural y desconocer el crecimiento urbano, mediante el conteo de unidades residenciales, ya sean fraccionamientos de interés social de alta densificación en proceso de ocupación o en otros casos, desarrollos inmobiliarios periurbanos habitados por población urbana de altos ingresos y bajas densidades, registrando ambas realidades como localidades rurales. Criticism of the registration of new urban incorporationsUrban expansion, as one of the types of growth of the city, is analysed from the causes that deliver several possibilities of placement of the population, depending on its socio-economic level and preferences at choosing the place to live. In this way, urban space energizes its configuration by the constant creation of residential units that are added to the original city, occupied by populations of different social strata but with the common denominator of being immersed, at any of its levels, in the urban economic structure. In this sense, it is considered that the analysis of the current situation and the approach of future strategies, requires to capture quantitative information of the expansion process, in order to understand at least the urban dynamics and to try to exercise control over the rhythms and orientations of such growth. The proposal put forward concerns about the formulation and systematization of a register of units of expansion, from making a thoughtful critical reading to official demographic statistics, whose interests in population counts -altough efficient in their purposes- diverge from the reliable knowledge of the trends of expansion, by increasing the numbers of rural population and ignoring urban growth, by counting residential units, whether developments of social housing with high densification in the process of occupation or, in other cases, peri-urban real estate developments inhabited by urban population of high income and low densities, registering both realities as rural localities. Keywords: Urban expansion; demographic record; rural locations; fragmentation.

Population dynamics, seasonal fluctuations and spatial distribution of the olive psyllid Euphyllura olivina Costa (Homoptera, Psyllidae) in Algeria

The olive psyllid Euphyllura olivina Costa (Homoptera, Psyllidae) causes considerable damage in olive groves in the Mediterranean basin, there by affecting production. To assess the rate of infestation and provide elements of integrated pest management, we monitored the life cycle and bio–ecology of this pest through population counts on the leaves and twigs of the tree from 29 March 2019 to 27 March 2020 at two relatively distant olive farms (Ain fares and Oued taria) in the wilaya of Mascara, Algeria. Our results showed that infestation was high on trees in the Oued taria farm. We found that E. olivina developed two generations per year, in spring, influenced by the climatic factors. The difference between the relative abundance of the different life stages (eggs, larval instar 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, female and male) in the cardinals orientations was significant. Infestation was highest on the southern and central orientations of the tree. Populations fluctuations were significantly affected by season at both farms.

Optimal Sampling for the Population Coverage Survey of the New Italian Register Based Census

For the first time in 2018 the Italian Institute of Statistics (Istat) implemented the annual Permanent Population Census which relies on the Population Base Register (PBR) and the Population Coverage Survey (PCS). This article provides a general overview of the PCS sampling design, which makes use of the PBR to correct population counts with the extended dual system estimator (Nirel and Glickman 2009). The sample allocation, proven optimal under a set of precision constraints, is based on preliminary estimates of individual probabilities of over-coverage and under-coverage. It defines the expected sample size in terms of individuals, and it oversamples the sub-populations subject to the risk of under/over coverage. Finally, the article introduces a sample selection method, which to the greatest extent possible satisfies the planned allocation of persons in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. Under acceptable assumptions, the article also shows that the sampling strategy enhances the precision of the estimates.

Incidence, Clinical Characteristics, and Risk Factors of SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Pregnant Individuals in the United States

Background Data about the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among pregnant individuals are needed to inform infection prevention guidance and counseling for this population. Methods We prospectively followed a cohort of pregnant individuals during August 2020–March 2021 at three U.S. sites. The three primary outcomes were incidence rates of any SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic infection, and asymptomatic infection, during pregnancy during periods of SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Participants self-collected weekly mid-turbinate nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, completed weekly illness symptom questionnaires, and submitted additional swabs with COVID-19–like symptoms. An overall SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence rate weighted by population counts of women of reproductive age in each state was calculated. Results Among 1098 pregnant individuals followed for a mean of 10 weeks, nine percent (99/1098) had SARS-CoV-2 infections during the study. Population weighted incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection were 10.0 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.7–14.3) person-weeks for any infection, 5.7 per 1,000 (95% CI 1.7-9.7) for symptomatic infections, and 3.5 per 1,000 (95% CI 0-7.1) for asymptomatic infections. Among 96 participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptom data, the most common symptoms were nasal congestion (72%), cough (64%), headache (59%), and change in taste or smell (54%); 28% had measured or subjective fever. The median symptom duration was 10 days (IQR6-16 days). Conclusion Pregnant individuals had a 1% risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection per week. Study findings provide information about SARS-CoV-2 infection risk during pregnancy to inform counseling for pregnant individuals about infection prevention practices, including COVID-19 vaccination.

Conservation status of the rare endemic Centaurium tenuiflorum subsp. anglicum, English Centaury (Gentianaceae)

The status of the rare English endemic Centaurium tenuiflorum subsp. anglicum, English Centaury, has been assessed from field surveys in 2020 and compared against previous population counts. In Dorset, 16 populations with c.25,800 plants occurred and there was no evidence of overall decline. It was not refound in one site in the Isle of Wight. The IUCN threat status is ‘Least Concern’.

Risk and space: modelling the accessibility of stroke centers using day- & nighttime population distribution and different transportation scenarios

Purpose Rapid accessibility of (intensive) medical care can make the difference between life and death. Initial care in case of strokes is highly dependent on the location of the patient and the traffic situation for supply vehicles. In this methodologically oriented paper we want to determine the inequivalence of the risks in this respect. Methods Using GIS we calculate the driving time between Stroke Units in the district of Münster, Germany for the population distribution at day- & nighttime. Eight different speed scenarios are considered. In order to gain the highest possible spatial resolution, we disaggregate reported population counts from administrative units with respect to a variety of factors onto building level. Results The overall accessibility of urban areas is better than in less urban districts using the base scenario. In that scenario 6.5% of the population at daytime and 6.8% at nighttime cannot be reached within a 30-min limit for the first care. Assuming a worse traffic situation, which is realistic at daytime, 18.1% of the population fail the proposed limit. Conclusions In general, we reveal inequivalence of the risks in case of a stroke depending on locations and times of the day. The ability to drive at high average speeds is a crucial factor in emergency care. Further important factors are the different population distribution at day and night and the locations of health care facilities. With the increasing centralization of hospital locations, rural residents in particular will face a worse accessibility situation.