scholarly journals Contribution of the Rise in Cohabiting Parenthood to Family Instability: Cohort Change in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia

Demography ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 2063-2082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Thomson ◽  
Maria Winkler-Dworak ◽  
Éva Beaujouan
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Family Instability ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Estimated Parameters ◽  
Union Status ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Divorce Rates ◽  
Union Type ◽  
Cohort Change

Abstract In this study, we investigate through microsimulation the link between cohabiting parenthood and family instability. We identify mechanisms through which increases in cohabiting parenthood may contribute to overall increases in separation among parents, linking micro-level processes to macro-level outcomes. Analyses are based on representative surveys in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia (represented by Norway and Sweden), with full histories of women’s unions and births. We first generate parameters for the risk of first and higher-order birth and union events by woman’s birth cohort and country. The estimated parameters are used to generate country- and cohort-specific populations of women with stochastically predicted family life courses. We use the hypothetical populations to decompose changes in the percentage of mothers who separate/divorce across maternal birth cohorts (1940s to 1950s, 1950s to 1960s, 1960s to 1970s), identifying how much of the change can be attributed to shifts in union status at first birth and how much is due to change in separation rates for each union type. We find that when cohabiting births were uncommon, increases in parents’ separation were driven primarily by increases in divorce among married parents. When cohabiting parenthood became more visible, it also became a larger component, but continued increases in parents’ divorce also contributed to increasing parental separation. When cohabiting births became quite common, the higher separation rates of cohabiting parents began to play a greater role than married parents’ divorce. When most couples had their first birth in cohabitation, those having children in marriage were increasingly selected from the most stable relationships, and their decreasing divorce rates offset the fact that increasing proportions of children were born in somewhat less stable cohabiting unions.

scholarly journals Family Instability in the Lives of American Children

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 493-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon E. Cavanagh ◽  
Paula Fomby
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Cultural Factors ◽  
Family Composition ◽  
Family Instability ◽  
National Data ◽  
Dynamic Nature ◽  
Family Organization ◽  
Union Status ◽  
New Directions ◽  
American Children

Scholars have long looked to family composition to understand child well-being. The study of family instability, or the experience of repeated changes in parents’ union status during childhood, represents a recent advance in this field that takes into account the dynamic nature of contemporary family organization and considers its implications for children's adjustment and development. We review some of the structural and cultural factors that have contributed to rising levels of family instability and highlight the emergence of national data to measure it. We then review the perspective that guides much of the scholarship on family instability and critically assess the contributions of this work to the understanding of child well-being. We close by suggesting new directions for research, with a call for work that broadens the conceptualization and measurement of contemporary children's family systems and home environments as well as the mechanisms that explain why—or whether—instability matters.

LATE-ENTRY-INTO-MOTHERHOOD WOMEN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR FERTILITY RECUPERATION

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
RUBÉN CASTRO
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Late Entry ◽  
First Child ◽  
Cohort Fertility

SummaryIn countries where age at parenthood has shifted to older ages, a necessary precondition for fertility recuperation is that women having their first child later in life (after age 30) will also eventually achieve a higher completed fertility, compared with the previous cohorts. This study analysed the changes in age-at-first-child-conditional fertility rates in Western Europe through three birth cohorts (1936–1940, 1946–1950 and 1956–1960). It was found that generations where recuperation is first evident (1956–1960 cohort) are characterized by comparatively higher fertility of late age-at-first-child women. This characteristic is not found in Eastern Europe, where ages at first birth and cohort fertility remained fairly constant across the cohorts analysed.

scholarly journals Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Fanny Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Cohort Change ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background: Alcohol is a major public health issue in Europe. Although future estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality can aid public health policy making, forecasts are scarce. Moreover, previous forecasts did not include the cohort dimension, despite the important role birth cohorts play in determining alcohol-attributable mortality trends. We forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Within Western Europe, France has one of the highest levels of alcohol-attributable mortality.Methods: For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly-attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period, and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results: Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). The peak of the inverse u-shaped age pattern of alcohol-attributable mortality (currently at around age 65) is expected to shift towards older ages, and an additional hump in the age pattern is projected that moves towards higher ages over time, and is more extended in the cohort scenario.Conclusions: Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

scholarly journals Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix C Tropf ◽  
Jornt J Mandemakers
Keyword(s):  
Family Environment ◽  
Family Background ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Identical Twin ◽  
Age At First Birth ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Background Factors ◽  
Twin Model

A large body of literature has demonstrated a positive relationship between education and age at first birth. However, this relationship may be partly spurious because of family background factors that cannot be controlled for in most research designs. We investigate the extent to which education is causally related to later age at first birth in a large sample of female twins from the United Kingdom (N = 2,752). We present novel estimates using within–identical twin and biometric models. Our findings show that one year of additional schooling is associated with about one-half year later age at first birth in ordinary least squares (OLS) models. This estimate reduced to only a 1.5-month later age at first birth for the within–identical twin model controlling for all shared family background factors (genetic and family environmental). Biometric analyses reveal that it is mainly influences of the family environment—not genetic factors—that cause spurious associations between education and age at first birth. Last, using data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate that only 1.9 months of the 2.74 years of fertility postponement for birth cohorts 1944–1967 could be attributed to educational expansion based on these estimates. We conclude that the rise in educational attainment alone cannot explain differences in fertility timing between cohorts.

RELATIVE INFLUENCES ON RECENT CHANGES IN THE FIRST BIRTH RATIO IN THE UNITED STATES

2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
ROSALIND BERKOWITZ KING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
The United States ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
The 1960S

Researchers in psychology have focused a great deal of attention on the potential greater predisposition to achievement among first-born children relative to their siblings. Focusing on the United States as an example, a time series of the first birth ratio is used to show how the changing prevalence of first births relative to higher order births has altered the composition of birth cohorts, and the ratio is decomposed into four factors. Results show that the ratio increased significantly in the 1960s and early 1970s, but changed only slightly in the following decades. While more recent birth cohorts are composed of larger proportions of first-born children, the majority of children are still born as siblings. Contrary to expectations, the primary source of change was the proportion childless rather than decreasing higher order birth rates.

Lower Marriage and Divorce Rates Among Twins Than Among Singletons in Danish Birth Cohorts 1940–1964

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Petersen ◽  
Torben Martinussen ◽  
Matthew McGue ◽  
Paul Bingley ◽  
Kaare Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Divorce Rate ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Danish Population ◽  
Marriage Rates ◽  
Marriage And Divorce ◽  
First Marriage ◽  
Civil Status ◽  
Divorce Rates ◽  
Danish Twin

Few studies have examined differences of civil status of twins and singletons and the conclusions are contradictory. In the present study, based on a linkage between the Danish Twin Register, a random 5% sample of the total Danish population, and administrative register databases, the authors compare rates of marriage and divorce in a sample of 35,975 twins and 81,803 singletons born 1940–1964. Cox-regressions are used in order to control for potential confounders. We find that compared with singletons twins have significantly lower marriage rates: (males: 15–19 years: Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.66 (95%CI: 0.58–0.76); 20–24 years: 0.85 (0.82–0.88); 25 years or more: 0.96 (0.93–0.98) and females: 15–19 years: 0.70 (0.67–0.75); 20–24 years: 0.83 (0.80–0.85); 25 years or more: 0.94 (0.91–0.97)). There is no difference in divorce rates for males, but a significantly lower divorce rate for female twins compared with singletons (HR=0.87, 95%CI: 0.83–0.90). These differences offset each other, thus 57% of both populations remain in their first marriage until censoring. The interpretation may be that since twins have a partner from birth, they do not have the same need for marriage as singletons but have more experience in maintaining a relationship if they do marry.

scholarly journals Cohort Change in Political Gender Gaps in Europe and Canada: The Role of Modernization

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosalind Shorrocks
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Economic Equality ◽  
European Values ◽  
Cohort Change

This article finds firmer evidence than has previously been presented that men are more left-wing than women in older birth cohorts, while women are more left-wing than men in younger cohorts. Analysis of the European Values Study/World Values Survey provides the first systematic test of how processes of modernization and social change have led to this phenomenon. In older cohorts, women are more right-wing primarily because of their greater religiosity and the high salience of religiosity for left-right self-placement and vote choice in older cohorts. In younger, more secular, cohorts, women’s greater support for economic equality and state intervention and, to a lesser extent, for liberal values makes them more left-wing than men. Because the gender gap varies in this way between cohorts, research focusing on the aggregate-level gap between all men and all women underestimates gender differences in left-right self-placement and vote choice.

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