Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method

Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age groups in counties nationwide. We also investigate whether forecast errors and their patterns change for SYN and CONST if forecasts by age and gender are adjusted to an independent total population forecast for each county. Our main findings are as follows: (1) SYN lowers forecast error compared to CONST whether the forecasts are controlled or not; (2) controlling also leads to the improvements in forecast error, often exceeding those in SYN; and (3) using SYN and controlling together has the greatest effect in reducing forecast error. These findings remain after controlling for population size and growth rate, but the positive impacts on forecast error of SYN and controlling are most evident in counties with less than 30,000 population and that grow by 15% or more.

Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology

Aim To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015–2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods For the French national population aged 25–90 years (1979–2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6–14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1–23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7–1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2–2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). Conclusion Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

Structural and Cohort Effects on Women’s Attitudes toward Gender Egalitarianism in Mexico

Women’s attitudes toward egalitarianism rest on a number of micro and macro conditions. Their education level and labor force participation significantly influence their attitudes toward gender equality. We apply a cohort change model to explain attitudes toward gender equality in Mexico using data from the 2011 National Survey on the Dynamics of Households Relationships (ENDIREH). Hierarchical linear modeling of data shows that younger women are more likely to adopt egalitarian attitudes than older women. Within birth cohorts, attitudes toward gender equality diverge significantly between employed and unemployed women. Availability of job opportunities resulting from labor market transformations appears to play an important and independent role in the growth of egalitarianism in Mexico. We find that the impact of education on gender egalitarianism starts decreasing with age and then increases for women born before the 1980s. We will discuss implications of the findings.

Why Have Sleep Problems in Later-Midlife Grown Following the Great Recession? A Comparative Cohort Analysis

Objectives This research compares three cohorts of individuals in their fifth decade of life and examines whether sleep problems are greater in cohorts following the Great Recession. We argue that these differences will occur because postrecession cohorts are exposed to more economic burdens that harm sleep. We also suggest that postrecession exposure to economic burdens will be amplified among women, leading to greater cross-cohort differences in sleep problems. Method Data were derived from the Health and Retirement Study, focusing on cohort surveys starting in 2004, 2010, and 2016 (N = 12,129). Structural equation models compared cohorts in latent levels of sleep problems and also examined whether economic burdens mediated cohort differences. Interactions tested whether cohort differences varied between men and women. Results The 2010 and 2016 cohorts had higher mean levels of sleep problems than the 2004 cohort. Greater postrecession exposure to economic burdens largely explained inter-cohort change in sleep problems, with this pattern stronger among women. Discussion Americans are approaching their senior years increasingly burdened by economic stressors that incur sleep problems. Practitioners and aging researchers should be prepared to address deleterious health consequences created by heightened sleep impairments.

Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology

Background: Alcohol is a major public health issue in Europe. Although future estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality can aid public health policy making, forecasts are scarce. Moreover, previous forecasts did not include the cohort dimension, despite the important role birth cohorts play in determining alcohol-attributable mortality trends. We forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Within Western Europe, France has one of the highest levels of alcohol-attributable mortality.Methods: For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly-attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period, and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results: Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). The peak of the inverse u-shaped age pattern of alcohol-attributable mortality (currently at around age 65) is expected to shift towards older ages, and an additional hump in the age pattern is projected that moves towards higher ages over time, and is more extended in the cohort scenario.Conclusions: Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

Contribution of the Rise in Cohabiting Parenthood to Family Instability: Cohort Change in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia

In this study, we investigate through microsimulation the link between cohabiting parenthood and family instability. We identify mechanisms through which increases in cohabiting parenthood may contribute to overall increases in separation among parents, linking micro-level processes to macro-level outcomes. Analyses are based on representative surveys in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia (represented by Norway and Sweden), with full histories of women’s unions and births. We first generate parameters for the risk of first and higher-order birth and union events by woman’s birth cohort and country. The estimated parameters are used to generate country- and cohort-specific populations of women with stochastically predicted family life courses. We use the hypothetical populations to decompose changes in the percentage of mothers who separate/divorce across maternal birth cohorts (1940s to 1950s, 1950s to 1960s, 1960s to 1970s), identifying how much of the change can be attributed to shifts in union status at first birth and how much is due to change in separation rates for each union type. We find that when cohabiting births were uncommon, increases in parents’ separation were driven primarily by increases in divorce among married parents. When cohabiting parenthood became more visible, it also became a larger component, but continued increases in parents’ divorce also contributed to increasing parental separation. When cohabiting births became quite common, the higher separation rates of cohabiting parents began to play a greater role than married parents’ divorce. When most couples had their first birth in cohabitation, those having children in marriage were increasingly selected from the most stable relationships, and their decreasing divorce rates offset the fact that increasing proportions of children were born in somewhat less stable cohabiting unions.