scholarly journals Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Fanny Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Cohort Change ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background: Alcohol is a major public health issue in Europe. Although future estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality can aid public health policy making, forecasts are scarce. Moreover, previous forecasts did not include the cohort dimension, despite the important role birth cohorts play in determining alcohol-attributable mortality trends. We forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Within Western Europe, France has one of the highest levels of alcohol-attributable mortality.Methods: For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly-attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period, and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results: Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). The peak of the inverse u-shaped age pattern of alcohol-attributable mortality (currently at around age 65) is expected to shift towards older ages, and an additional hump in the age pattern is projected that moves towards higher ages over time, and is more extended in the cohort scenario.Conclusions: Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

scholarly journals Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Fanny Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Period Change ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Cirrhosis Mortality ◽  
Cohort Change ◽  
Preventive Policy ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Aim To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015–2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods For the French national population aged 25–90 years (1979–2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6–14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1–23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7–1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2–2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). Conclusion Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

scholarly journals Estimating the Potential Public Health Impact of Prohibiting Characterizing Flavors in Cigars throughout the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3234
Author(s):  
Brian L. Rostron ◽  
Catherine G. Corey ◽  
Enver Holder-Hayes ◽  
Bridget K. Ambrose
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Health Benefits ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cigar Smoking ◽  
Potential Public Health ◽  
Over Time

Flavored cigar use is common among cigar smokers, particularly those at younger ages. Several US localities have implemented policies restricting the sale of flavored tobacco products, including cigars. We estimated the population health benefits of removal of flavored cigars throughout the US in terms of reductions in cigar smoking-attributable mortality due to increased cessation and reductions in cigar smoking prevalence due to decreased initiation and continuing use. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate possible ranges for these values. We used published estimates of cigar use and attributable mortality in the US, as well as prior study conclusions on the effect of local and national flavor restriction policies. We estimated that removal of flavored cigars would result in approximately 800 (90% prediction interval = 400–1200) fewer cigar smoking-attributable deaths in the US each year and 112,000 fewer cigar smokers (90% prediction interval = 76,000–139,000) in each cohort of 18 year olds. The removal of characterizing flavors in cigars sold in the US is thus projected to have substantial public health benefits over time.

scholarly journals Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 9024
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Population Level ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Health Action ◽  
North Western ◽  
Careful Assessment

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20–84) and year-specific (1990–2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.

scholarly journals Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis in India over past three decades: A Joinpoint and Age-Period- Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Dhamnetiya ◽  
Priyanka Patel ◽  
Ravi Prakash Jha ◽  
Neha Shri ◽  
Mayank Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Tuberculosis Incidence ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract BackgroundThe morbidity and mortality burden of tuberculosis has been a major public health challenge in India. Despite various commitments to end the global TB epidemic, India has the highest burden of TB and MDR-TB. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, it is imperative to outline the incidence and trend of tuberculosis in India. This study provides the trends in the burden of TB in India, along with age, period and cohort effect of TB. MethodsWe have extracted the TB incidence and mortality estimates from GBD database over the period 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was used to determine the magnitude of time trends in incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). We have analyzed the tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in India to distinguish age, period and cohort effects by using age-period-cohort (APC) model.ResultsThere has been a decline in age standardized incidence rate in the period 1990-2019. Results from the APC table showed that the incidence and mortality due to tuberculosis in India decreased with the recent cohort. The period RRs of incidence had a downward trend in India in the period 1990-2019. Age standardized incidence and mortality rates of tuberculosis was found higher among males. The period RRs of incidence had a downward trend. Findings show that incidence and mortality were higher in older ages. The cohort effect on the incidence of tuberculosis was found higher among 1990-94 birth cohorts than in the later birth cohorts 2010-14. Wald test results demonstrated that the cohort and period RRs for both sexes and the net drift and local drifts for tuberculosis incidence and mortality were statistically significant.ConclusionHigher incidence and mortality in the older age groups is attributed to poor nutrition and socio-economic status. Improvement in India’s public health facility and strategic programs aimed at eliminating tuberculosis might be the reason behind declining RRs in India. The decline in the cohort RRs signifies the effective measures taken to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in the country.

Socio-demographic and Clinical Characteristics of Patient with Thyroid Cancer

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-58
Author(s):  
AKM Farhad Hossain ◽  
Md Mahmudur Rahman Siddiqui ◽  
Sayada Fatema Khatun
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Family Income ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Endocrine System ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Follicular Carcinoma ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Cross Sectional

Background: Thyroid cancer is the most common malignant disease in endocrine system. It is an emerging public health issue associated with burden on the family, community and the nation. The aim of this study is to determine the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of patient with thyroid cancer attending in tertiary hospital. Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted among 246 thyroid cancer patients in two tertiary hospitals of Dhaka city from 01 July 2018 to 30 June 2019. The subjects were selected purposively following specific selection criteria and maintaining ethical issues. Data were collected by face to face interview using a semi-structured questionnaire and checklist. Data were analyzed by the statistical package for the social science (SPSS) version 23. Results: This study revealed that majority (74.4%) of respondents was female, married (72%), housewife (61.4%), rural respondent (41.1%) and had primary education (69%). Mean (± SD) age of the respondent was 37.85(±12.20) years (Range 14-70 years) and mean (± SD) monthly family income was Tk. 17681(±10602). Out of 246 cases, 204 (82.9%) was papillary and 42 (17.1%) was follicular carcinoma. Various clinical presentations included visible neck swelling in 225 (91.5%), swollen lymph node in 103 (41.9%), pain 90 (36.6%), Difficulties in swallowing 87 (35.4%), Hoarseness of voice in 141 (57.3%), cough along with swelling 47(19.1%), Difficulties in breathing due to swelling in 13(5.3%) of the patients. Conclusion: Incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide specially in female patients in 3rd and 4th decades of life. As thyroid cancer is a growing public health problem in Bangladesh, proper screening and early diagnostic facilities at all level should be available to measure its actual burden in the country. Anwer Khan Modern Medical College Journal Vol. 11, No. 1: Jan 2020, P 54-58

Identifying changes in trends in the age standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M Hille
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Health Issue ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Piecewise Linear Regression ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Males And Females

ObjectiveTo identify changes in the linear trend of the age-standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia for all persons, males, and females. MethodsA two-piece piecewise linear regression was fitted to the data. The piecewise breakpoint varied through an iterative process to determine the model that best fits the data.ResultsStatistically significant changes in the trendof the age-standardized incidence of melanoma in Australia were found for all persons, males, and females. The optimal breakpoint for all persons and males was at 1998. For females, the optimal breakpoint was at 2005. The trend after these breakpoints was flatter than prior to the breakpoints, but still positive.ConclusionMelanoma is a significant public health issue in Australia. Overall incidence continues to increase. However, the rate at which the incidence is increasing appears to be decreasing.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document