Do fluctuations in exchange rate hinder non-oil export? An analysis of agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekundayo Peter Mesagan ◽  
Kolawole Kushimo ◽  
Dominic Ikoh Umar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Export

scholarly journals A Study Examining the Effects of Oil Export in Iran

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 58-65
Author(s):  
Safdari Mehdi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Prosperity ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

The effect of increasing oil incomes on oil exporter countries is the main issues of political economy. Generally and especially about Iran can be recognized this effect in the government spending method, economic structure and behavior of government within the country. Since oil incomes aren’t result of the performance of economic activities, consequently increasing does not show the real economic prosperity. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between oil exports and economic growth in Iran. The data were collected from 1961-2006 and were analyzed using Cointegration, Error Correction Model, and VEC Granger causality/Wald Exogeniety model. The result of the analyses showed that there was significant relationship between oil incomes and economic growth. It showed that increasing in oil price rate lead to increasing in the government costs consequently it affect on the exchange rate and lead to increasing in real exchange rate. Therefore oil incomes are regarded as an important factor in Iran's economic growth.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate and Trade in Services Nexus in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 465-482
Author(s):  
Nathan Audu ◽  
Titus Obiezue
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Trade In Services ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
Rate Adjustment ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

A nonlinear ARDL model is employed to investigate the asymmetric drivers of non-oil trade in services between Nigeria and Netherlands. A significant number of past studies have concentrated their attention on the elasticity of trade in services to real exchange rates and income as well as on non-oil export, total export trade or import, yet none have delve into asymmetric relationship. This study aims to fills this void. Our result shows that the effects of exchange rate variations have both positive and negative displays with more negative asymmetry. This provides further insights in the nature of service asymmetries. (JEL Codes: C22, D43, E31, L71, Q41) Keywords: asymmetric cointegration, exchange rate adjustment, disaggregated, services

Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavio Vilela Vieira ◽  
Ronald MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical methodology is based on System GMM estimation for a set of 106 countries for the period of 2000-2011. Findings – For the complete sample of countries and for a set of developing/emerging economies, there is evidence that an increase (decrease) in REER volatility reduces (increases) export volume. The results are not robust once the oil export countries are removed from the sample. The estimated coefficients for the financial crisis dummy are positive and statistically significant, indicating that export volume were 0.14 percent higher after the financial crisis of 2008 compared to the previous period (2000-2007). There is also evidence that the export volume is price (REER) and income (trade weighted) inelastic. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results are valid for the complete set of countries and for developing and emerging economies when including the oil export countries, suggesting that countries should reduce exchange rate volatility in order to foster their export volume and that oil export countries have an important role on these results. Practical implications – The paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to minimize exchange rate volatility if they seek to increase export volume. The international financial crisis had a significant impact on export volume in all estimated models regardless of the set of countries used. Originality/value – One of the main novelties of this work is that it deals with possible endogeneity using GMM estimators and addresses the issue of instrument proliferation, which is not a common feature of previous empirical studies on exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Another original aspect of the research is the construction of trade weighted variables for foreign income and REER based on the major 20 export partners for each country used in the panel data estimation. The work also incorporates the years following the international financial crisis of 2008, which is an additional empirical novelty, in order to address the impact of the international financial crisis on the export volume.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy and External Shocks in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 129-138
Author(s):  
Patrick Ologbenla
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks ◽  
Auto Regression

The study assessed the effects of external shocks on fiscal policy in Nigeria. Vector auto-regression VAR estimating technique is adopted to achieve the set objectives of the study. The VAR model comprises of the following variables GDP, oil output, oil price, government revenue, government expenditure, external reserve, exchange rate, fiscal balance, and non-oil export. These variables represent the external shocks, the growth variables, fiscal variables and some other macroeconomic variables. The VAR results show that oil price and non-oil export are the most important external shocks affecting fiscal policy in Nigeria. It was also discovered that public debt shock has no significant impact on government expenditure. In addition, external reserve and exchange rate shocks also have a significant impact on fiscal policy. Finally, government expenditure shock failed to have a significant impact on the GDP. The implication of these results is that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in achieving macroeconomic objectives in Nigeria depends on these identified shocks.

Oil Export Earnings, Exchange Rate Variability, and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-23
Author(s):  
Folorunso Sunday Ayadi ◽  
Olubunmi Elizabeth Oluwagbemi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper investigates oil revenue and exchange rate volatility and as well as their impacts on Nigerian economic growth which is examined from 1980 – 2010. Exchange rate volatility was captured using standard deviationof monthly nominal effective exchange rate. During this period, Nigeria recorded high levels of volatility (in oil receipt and effective exchange rate) as can be seen from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) - ARCH/GARCH results. Also, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicate that some of the variables exhibit unit root, this research further makes use of vector autoregressive process (VAR) using the variance decomposition of Choleski factorisation in which forecast error variance of some systems of equations has innovations which is credited to each variable and the method of impulse response function. The authors established that exchange rate in Nigeria due to its volatility causes revenue volatility from oil and this has a daring consequence on Nigeria's economic growth (being a monoculture economy). They found that change in oil price index, change in interest rate, proportion of export to GDP and exchange rate variability bears some negative impacts on change in the rate of output growth in Nigeria. Moreover, government size and exchange rate variability created some disturbances to change in the rate of output, these changes were not as substantial as those created by change in interest rate, ratio of oil export to GDP and change in oil price index. In addition, change in output responds negatively for some time horizon to one-standard deviation shocks in change in oil price index, change in interest rate, oil export to GDP and exchange rate variability. The authors recommend economic diversification and sound macroeconomic management among others.

Exchange rate volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria: An empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Sa’ad Babatunde Akanbi ◽  
Halimah Adedayo Alagbe ◽  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Musibau Hammed Oluwaseyi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

The adoption of a flexible exchange rate system since 1986 in Nigeria has made the country witnessed varying rate of the naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar. This paper examines exchange rate volatility with ARCH model and its various extensions (GARCH, TGARCH, and EGARCH) using quarterly exchange rate series from 1986-Q1 to 2014-Q4.The impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports was also examined using Error Correction Model (ECM) with two different measures of volatility. The results obtained confirm the existence of exchange rate volatility and also found a significant negative effect on non-oil export performance in Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should ensure an appropriate policy mix that not only ensures a stable and realistic exchange rate but also conducive atmosphere for production and exportation.

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