scholarly journals Reprint of: Modelling long-term shoreline evolution in highly anthropized coastal areas. Part 2: Assessing the response to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 103985 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Alvarez-Cuesta ◽  
A. Toimil ◽  
I.J. Losada
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Shoreline Evolution

Climate Change, Humanitarian Risks, and Social-Political (In)stability Along the Gulf of Aden: Expert Elicitation for the Case of Somalia and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Lambert ◽  
Mahmood Almehdhar ◽  
Mustafa Haji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Gulf Of Aden ◽  
The World ◽  
Environmental Events

<p><strong>Abstract</strong>: Changes in the global oceanic system have already negatively affected the world’s marine life and the livelihoods of many coastal communities across the world, including in the Middle East' and Eastern Africa's Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Coastal communities in Somalia and Yemen for instance, have been particularly affected by extreme environmental events (EEEs), with an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the past 20 years. Using expert elicitation as a method to generate data to assess and quantify a specific issue in the absence of sufficient and/or reliable data, the authors interviewed selected specialists in or from Somalia and Yemen, from diverse fields of expertise related to climate change, extreme environmental events, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian affairs. Ten experts followed the elicitation protocol and answered a specific series of questions in order to better quantify the expectable mid-to-long-term climatic and humanitarian levels of risks, impacts, and consequences that climate change and related issues (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and sea surge) may generate in coastal areas along the Gulf of Aden's coastal cities of Aden and Bossaso, in Yemen and Somalia, respectively.</p><p>The findings indicate that there is cause for significant concern as climate change is assessed by all interviewees - irrespective of their background -, as very likely to hold a negative to a devastating impact on (fresh) water security, food security, public health, social conflicts, population displacement, and eventually political stability; and to strongly worsen the humanitarian situations in Somalia and Yemen, both in the medium-term (i.e., 2020-2050) and the long-term (i.e., 2020-2100). The authors call on the scientific community to further research the issue of climate change in the understudied coastal areas of the Gulf of Aden, and on the international community to pro-actively and urgently help the local populations and relevant authorities to rapidly and strongly build up their adaptation capacities, especially in the niche of coastal EEEs.</p>

scholarly journals BEACH PLANFORM EQUILIBRIUM, APPLICATION AND METHODOLOGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCY CONSIDERATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Mohamed Dabees
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Equilibrium Conditions ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Open Coast ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Water Elevations ◽  
Added Uncertainty ◽  
Evaluation Parameters

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) present a challenge and added uncertainty for managing coastal areas. Many coastal cities and developed coastal areas are assessing future vulnerabilities to SLR and developing adaptation plans for improved resiliency. Equilibrium conditions for beach planform can be critical to the long-term stability of beaches and dunes fronting coastal cities. In many cases, resiliency and adaptation programs for beachfront areas are based on assumptions of evaluating scenarios of higher water elevations and hydrodynamic forcing under present time topographic and bathymetric conditions. These evaluation parameters suggest that the coastline and existing morphological features are near equilibrium condition and are expected to remain near similar equilibrium over the SLR scenarios under consideration. Such assumptions may be limited to open coast conditions where the beach and the developed coastal planform follows theoretical open coast conditions or constant equilibrium planform. This paper discusses factors influencing beach planform along the Florida Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines and proposes conceptual methodologies in various applications.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/gWsbmi6VIo0

scholarly journals Temporally Generalizable Land Cover Classification: A Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network Unveils Major Coastal Change through Time

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 3953
Author(s):  
Patrick Clifton Gray ◽  
Diego F. Chamorro ◽  
Justin T. Ridge ◽  
Hannah Rae Kerner ◽  
Emily A. Ury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Validation Data

The ability to accurately classify land cover in periods before appropriate training and validation data exist is a critical step towards understanding subtle long-term impacts of climate change. These trends cannot be properly understood and distinguished from individual disturbance events or decadal cycles using only a decade or less of data. Understanding these long-term changes in low lying coastal areas, home to a huge proportion of the global population, is of particular importance. Relatively simple deep learning models that extract representative spatiotemporal patterns can lead to major improvements in temporal generalizability. To provide insight into major changes in low lying coastal areas, our study (1) developed a recurrent convolutional neural network that incorporates spectral, spatial, and temporal contexts for predicting land cover class, (2) evaluated this model across time and space and compared this model to conventional Random Forest and Support Vector Machine methods as well as other deep learning approaches, and (3) applied this model to classify land cover across 20 years of Landsat 5 data in the low-lying coastal plain of North Carolina, USA. We observed striking changes related to sea level rise that support evidence on a smaller scale of agricultural land and forests transitioning into wetlands and “ghost forests”. This work demonstrates that recurrent convolutional neural networks should be considered when a model is needed that can generalize across time and that they can help uncover important trends necessary for understanding and responding to climate change in vulnerable coastal regions.

scholarly journals EQUILIBRIUM MODELING OF CURRENT AND FUTURE BEACH EVOLUTION: VOUGOT BEACH, FRANCE

2020 ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Teddy Chataigner ◽  
Marissa Yates ◽  
Nicolas Le Dantec ◽  
Serge Suanez ◽  
France Floch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Shoreline Evolution ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The impacts of climate change, including sea level and wave climate changes, may increase future erosion risks. Thus, it is important to improve knowledge of the dominant physical processes controlling medium- to long-term shoreline evolution, as well as the performance of beach evolution models reproducing past observations and predicting future changes. Empirical equilibrium beach change models may be an optimal choice at these spatial and temporal scales. Here, morphological changes at Vougot Beach (Brittany, France) are analyzed by evaluating the cross-shore evolution of contour elevations (-1 to 6m) along six intertidal beach profiles using observations and an equilibrium beach change model, and then three methods for estimating the impacts of climate change are applied and compared.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/p70KuzjR1kU

2018 Nobel Economics Prize: Integrating Climate Change Measures into Sustainable Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thuc An ◽  
Dau Kieu Ngoc Anh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Endogenous Growth Theory ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The 2018 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to two American economists - William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer - who designed methods for better assessing environmental issues and technological advances on growth. This year’s Laureates, Nordhaus was the first person to create an intergrated model to assess interactions between society and nature and Romer laid the foundation for what is now called endogenous growth theory. According to the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, these two macroeconomists’ research have helped “significantly broaden the scope of economic analysis by constructing models that explain how the market economy interacts with nature and knowledge” which integrates climate change measures into long-term sustainable economic growth. Keywords Nobel in economics, William D. Nordhaus, Paul M. Romer, climate change, endogenous growth theory, economic growth References [1] Y Vân (2018), “Lý lịch 'khủng' của hai nhà khoa học vừa giành giải Nobel Kinh tế 2018”, Vietnambiz, đăng tải ngày 08/10/2018, https://vietnambiz.vn/ly-lich-khung-cua-hai-nha-khoa-hoc-vua-gianh-giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-95776.html[2] Jonas O. Bergman, Rich Miller (2018), “Nordhaus, Romer Win Nobel for Thinking on Climate, Innovation”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/nordhaus-romer-win-2018-nobel-prize-in-economic-sciences [3] Antonin Pottier (2018), “Giải Nobel” William Nordhaus có thật sự nghiêm túc?”, Nguyễn Đôn Phước dịch, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/giai-nobel-william-nordhaus-co-that-su.html[4] Thăng Điệp (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018 về tay hai người Mỹ”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, http://vneconomy.vn/giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-ve-tay-hai-nguoi-my-20181008185809239.htm[5] Lars P. Syll (2018), “Cuối cùng - Paul Romer cũng có được giải thưởng Nobel”, Huỳnh Thiện Quốc Việt dịch, đăng tải ngày 14/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/cuoi-cung-paul-romer-cung-co-uoc-giai.html[6] Phương Võ (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế 2018: Chạm tới bài toán khó của thời đại”, đăng tải ngày 9/10/2018, https://nld.com.vn/thoi-su-quoc-te/nobel-kinh-te-2018-cham-toi-bai-toan-kho-cua-thoi-dai-20181008221734228.htm[7] Đông Phong (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế cho giải pháp phát triển bền vững và phúc lợi người dân”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nobel-kinh-te-cho-giai-phap-phat-trien-ben-vung-va-phuc-loi-nguoi-dan-post882860.html[8] Thanh Trúc (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018: Thay đổi tư duy về biến đổi khí hậu”, https://tusach.thuvienkhoahoc.com/wiki/Gi%E1%BA%A3i_Nobel_kinh_t%E1%BA%BF_2018:_Thay_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_t%C6%B0_duy_v%E1%BB%81_bi%E1%BA%BFn_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_kh%C3%AD_h%E1%BA%ADu[9] Cẩm Anh (2018), “Nobel kinh tế 2018: Lời giải cho tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững”, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://enternews.vn/nobel-kinh-te-2018-loi-giai-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-ben-vung-137600.html.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

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