Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.
Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization