Predicting changes in yield and water use in the production of corn in the United States under climate change scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 555-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Z. Johnston ◽  
Heather N. Sandefur ◽  
Prathamesh Bandekar ◽  
Marty D. Matlock ◽  
Brian E. Haggard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Water Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Groundwater Levels

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

scholarly journals Host Overwintering Phenology and Climate Change Influence the Establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi Yang (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Larval Parasitoid Introduced for Biocontrol of the Emerald Ash Borer

2020 ◽  
Vol 113 (6) ◽  
pp. 2641-2649
Author(s):  
Juli R Gould ◽  
Melissa L Warden ◽  
Benjamin H Slager ◽  
Theresa C Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Biological Control ◽  
Emerald Ash Borer ◽  
Control Program ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agrilus Planipennis ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Tetrastichus Planipennisi

Abstract Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is one of the most serious forest pests in the United States. Ongoing research indicates that establishment of larval parasitoids depends upon the season-long availability of host stages susceptible to parasitism. We monitored emerald ash borer overwintering stages at 90 sites across 22 states to: 1) produce a model of the percentage of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae; 2) link that model to establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi; and 3) explore changes to our model under climate change scenarios. Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) is an important predictor of the proportion of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae (1–4 instar larvae under the bark; available to parasitoids emerging in spring) versus J-larvae (fourth-instar larvae in pupal chambers in the outer wood; unavailable to parasitoids). From north to south, the availability of non-J emerald ash borer larvae in the spring decreases as accumulated GDD increases. In areas where the model predicted >46–75%, >30–46%, >13–30%, or ≤13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae, the probability of establishment of T. planipennisi was 92%, 67%, 57%, and 21%, respectively. We determined that 13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae was the lowest threshold for expected T. planipennisi establishment. Additional modeling predicts that under climate change, establishment of T. planipennisi will be most affected in the Central United States, with areas that are currently suitable becoming unsuitable. Our results provide a useful tool for the emerald ash borer biological control program on how to economically and successfully deploy emerald ash borer biological control agents.

Characterizing Climate-Change Impacts on the 1.5-yr Flood Flow in Selected Basins across the United States: A Probabilistic Approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. Walker ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
Michael D. Dettinger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
The United States ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Temporal Shifts

Abstract The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was applied to basins in 14 different hydroclimatic regions to determine the sensitivity and variability of the freshwater resources of the United States in the face of current climate-change projections. Rather than attempting to choose a most likely scenario from the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an ensemble of climate simulations from five models under three emissions scenarios each was used to drive the basin models. Climate-change scenarios were generated for PRMS by modifying historical precipitation and temperature inputs; mean monthly climate change was derived by calculating changes in mean climates from current to various future decades in the ensemble of climate projections. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were fitted to the PRMS model output driven by the ensemble of climate projections and provided a basis for randomly (but representatively) generating realizations of hydrologic response to future climates. For each realization, the 1.5-yr flood was calculated to represent a flow important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology. The empirical probability density function (pdf) of the 1.5-yr flood was estimated using the results across the realizations for each basin. Of the 14 basins studied, 9 showed clear temporal shifts in the pdfs of the 1.5-yr flood projected into the twenty-first century. In the western United States, where the annual peak discharges are heavily influenced by snowmelt, three basins show at least a 10% increase in the 1.5-yr flood in the twenty-first century; the remaining two basins demonstrate increases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Four basins in the eastern Rockies/central United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining two basins demonstrate decreases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Two basins in the eastern United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining basin shows little or no change in the 1.5-yr flood.

scholarly journals Changes in Spring Snowpack for Selected Basins in the United States for Different Climate-Change Scenarios

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. Mastin ◽  
Katherine J. Chase ◽  
R. W. Dudley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Snow Cover Area ◽  
The Future

Abstract Spring snowpack is an important water resource in many river basins in the United States in areas where snowmelt comprises a large part of the annual runoff. Increasing temperatures will likely reduce snowpacks in the future, resulting in more winter runoff and less available water during the summer low-flow season. As part of the National Climate Change Modeling Project by the U.S. Geological Survey, distributed watershed-model output was analyzed to characterize areal extent and water-equivalent volumes of spring snowpack for a warming climate. The output from seven selected watershed models from the mountainous western United States and one model from coastal Maine in the northeastern United States shows a future of declining spring snowpack. Snow-cover area (SCA) and snow-water equivalent (SWE) were used to compare the spring snowpack for current conditions (2006) with three time periods in the future (2030, 2060, and 2090) using three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios published in the 2007 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, B1, and A1B. Distributed SWE and SCA values were sorted into elevation zones in each basin. The change in spring snowpack over time was greater than the change among different emission scenarios, suggesting that, even for a globally reduced carbon emission scenario, large decreases in SWE are likely to occur. The SRES A2 scenario resulted in the greatest decrease in SWE for six of the basins, and the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios resulted in the greatest decrease in one basin each.

scholarly journals An Attack on the Separation of Powers? Strategic Climate Litigation in the Eyes of U.S. Judges

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8335
Author(s):  
Jasmina Nedevska
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Separation Of Powers ◽  
The United States ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
Climate Politics ◽  
The Social ◽  
Domestic Courts ◽  
Research Plan

Climate change litigation has emerged as a powerful tool as societies steer towards sustainable development. Although the litigation mainly takes place in domestic courts, the implications can be seen as global as specific climate rulings influence courts across national borders. However, while the phenomenon of judicialization is well-known in the social sciences, relatively few have studied issues of legitimacy that arise as climate politics move into courts. A comparatively large part of climate cases have appeared in the United States. This article presents a research plan for a study of judges’ opinions and dissents in the United States, regarding the justiciability of strategic climate cases. The purpose is to empirically study how judges navigate a perceived normative conflict—between the litigation and an overarching ideal of separation of powers—in a system marked by checks and balances.

Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda J. Bilmes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

AbstractThe United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues that the US will not redefine national security explicitly due to the importance of the military in the US economy and the bipartisan trend toward growing the military budget since 2001. However, the pandemic has opened the floodgates with respect to federal spending. This shift will enable the next administration to allocate greater resources to non-military threats such as climate change and emerging diseases, even as it continues to increase defense spending to address traditionally defined military threats such as hypersonics and cyberterrorism.

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