Modeling framework for estimating impacts of climate change on electricity demand at regional level: Case of Greece

2007 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 1737-1750 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mirasgedis ◽  
Y. Sarafidis ◽  
E. Georgopoulou ◽  
V. Kotroni ◽  
K. Lagouvardos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Of Greece ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Expansion on Hydrologic Ecosystem Services in the Milwaukee River Basin

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Pan ◽  
Woonsup Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes could affect water quantity and quality and thus hydrologic ecosystem services (ES). However, studies of these impacts on hydrologic ES are limited by the current methods and techniques. We attempted to find out how the LULC and climate changes impact hydrologic ES at different temporal scales so that decision-makers can easily understand hydrologic ES variations for guiding management plans. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of LULC and climate changes on hydrologic ES in the Milwaukee River basin, USA with a conceptual modeling framework for hydrologic ES. The model framework was applied to a series of climate and urban expansion scenarios. Two hydrologic responses (streamflow and sediment) and three hydrologic ES (water provision index (WPI), flood regulation index (FRI), and sediment regulation index (SRI)) were calculated. Major findings include: (1) Climate change has much larger impacts than LULC at the monthly scale. For example, the impacts of climate change on streamflow were −6 to 9 m3/s whereas those of LULC change were −0.4 to 0.2 m3/s. Also, WPI (ranging from 0 to 1) changed between −0.16 and 0.07 with climate change but between −0.02 and −0.001 with LULC changes. (2) Compared to changes at the annual scale, the results show much larger variabilities as monthly time-series and mean monthly numbers. These findings suggest that the climate change weighs more than the realistic LULC change in term of impacts on hydrologic ES and those impacts can be identified with results at the monthly temporal scale. This approach with the framework and scenarios can better support management planning for decision-makers with detailed results and temporal precision.

A Hydro-Economic Modeling Framework for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Thailand with Multi-Sectoral Linkages and Multi-Scale Vulnerability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aksara Putthividhya ◽  
Wimolpat Bumbudsanpharoke Khamkanya ◽  
Somkiat Prajamwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Sectoral Linkages ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-sectoral impacts of climate change, evidencing the need to develop national and sub-national integrated tools and policies for the analysis of impacts and adaptation, especially central to local policy recommendation and implementation. This framework combines an area-based economic optimization model with the hydrological model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic, and hydrologic systems in a spatially explicit manner covering dimensions and scales relevant to downscaled climate change impacts.  Simulated scenarios are setup to incorporate climate scenario, prior-historic dependence to adaptation conformity, and two policy-based adaptation scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that climate change may impact severely in rain-fed agricultural area and also to irrigation systems reducing water availability and security and crop yields, and increasing in more efficient irrigation water allocation.  The adaptation strategies analysis based on socio-economic, agronomic, and hydrologic dimensions capitalizes the key role of Thailand supply- and demand-side management policy in facilitating adaptation. The under developing framework is currently anticipated to be a useful tool for supporting water resources and climate change policy making.  It can contribute to improve understanding on potential impacts of climate change, multi-sectoral linkages, multi-scale vulnerability, and adaptation programs.   </p>

Climate change, agriculture and economic effects on different regions of Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho ◽  
Gustavo Inácio de Moraes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Brazilian Literature ◽  
Household Expenditures ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractIn this paper we assess the potential economic effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture scenarios in different regions in a general equilibrium framework, using a detailed regional economic database for the year 2005. Two different climate change impact scenarios are simulated. This paper extends the Brazilian literature in three different ways: by considering detailed shocks by product and region; by highlighting the connections between the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the labor market, with an inter-regional focus; and by specifying the links between climate change forecasts for agriculture and household expenditures. Results show that climate change impacts on Brazilian agriculture would have a relatively small economic effect on the Brazilian economy in aggregate terms, but with severe consequences at the regional level, making a strong case for losses that would be concentrated in the poorest regions and for the poorest workers and households in those regions.

scholarly journals A risk modeling framework to evaluate the impacts of climate change and adaptation on food and water safety

2015 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 78-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben A. Smith ◽  
Todd Ruthman ◽  
Erik Sparling ◽  
Heather Auld ◽  
Neil Comer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Water Safety ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

2020 ◽  
Vol 158 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Steinberg ◽  
Bryan K. Mignone ◽  
Jordan Macknick ◽  
Yinong Sun ◽  
Kelly Eurek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
National Level ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Electricity System ◽  
The Us ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model—the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)—this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.

scholarly journals Heat stress, labor productivity, and economic impacts: analysis of climate change impacts using two-way coupled modeling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken'ichi Matsumoto ◽  
Kaoru Tachiiri ◽  
Xuanming Su
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Two Systems ◽  
Climate Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Climate change affects various fundamental human activities, and understanding the consequences of its impacts is essential. Among them, heat stress considerably affects economic conditions. Furthermore, when analyzing the socioeconomic impacts of climate change, both socioeconomic and climate systems must be considered simultaneously, though such studies are scarce. This study aimed to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of changes in labor productivity due to heat stress (measured by wet bulb globe temperature) under various climate change scenarios through a new modeling framework that coupled a computable general equilibrium model and an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to realize the interactions between the two systems through the relationship between heat stress and labor productivity. Results indicated that labor productivity declined as climate change progressed (particularly in hot and humid regions), driving a gradual decline in total global gross domestic product (GDP). Although regional GDP largely decreased where labor productivity considerably declined, it slightly increased in some areas because of a comparative advantage brought about by the difference in the impact on labor productivity by region. Consequently, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and concentrations and the resulting temperature were slightly reduced when examining the impact of climate change on labor productivity. These tendencies were similar in both business-as-usual and climate change mitigation scenarios, but the overall impacts were smaller under the latter. There was a limited impact on CO2 emissions, CO2 concentrations, and temperature via integrated socioeconomic and climate systems. However, this study focused on only a single channel of the various interactions between the two systems. For a more complete evaluation of the impacts of climate change, further development of the integrated model is required.

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