The importance of uranium prices and structural shocks: Some implications for Greenland

Energy Policy ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 112757
Author(s):  
Javier L. Arnaut
Keyword(s):  
Structural Shocks

Do Money Targets Matter for Monetary Policy in Kenya?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Andrle ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Enrico Berkes ◽  
R. Armando Morales ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
General Specification

The framework in Chapter 15 is extended to incorporate an explicit role for money aggregates, with an application to Kenya. The chapter provides a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. A novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc.) is presented. In the case of Kenya, the authors find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility.

scholarly journals Choosing between identification schemes in noisy-news models

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua C. C. Chan ◽  
Eric Eisenstat ◽  
Gary Koop
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Identification Scheme ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
The One ◽  
Small Models ◽  
Structural Vector

AbstractThis paper is about identifying structural shocks in noisy-news models using structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models. We develop a new identification scheme and efficient Bayesian methods for estimating the resulting SVARMA. We discuss how our identification scheme differs from the one which is used in existing theoretical and empirical models. Our main contributions lie in the development of methods for choosing between identification schemes. We estimate specifications with up to 20 variables using US macroeconomic data. We find that our identification scheme is preferred by the data, particularly as the size of the system is increased and that noise shocks generally play a negligible role. However, small models may overstate the importance of noise shocks.

scholarly journals The Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-193
Author(s):  
Domenico Ferraro ◽  
Giuseppe Fiori
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Shocks ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
Tax Cuts

We study how the changing demographic composition of the US labor force has affected the response of the unemployment rate to marginal tax rate shocks. Using narratively identified tax changes as proxies for structural shocks, we establish that the responsiveness of the unemployment rates to tax changes varies significantly across age groups: the unemployment rate response of the young is nearly twice as large as that of the old. This heterogeneity is the channel through which shifts in the age composition of the labor force impact the response of the unemployment rate to tax cuts. We find that the aging of the baby boomers considerably reduces the effects of tax cuts on aggregate unemployment. (JEL E24, E62, H24, H31, J21)

Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?

2020 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 183-193
Author(s):  
Aktham I. Maghyereh ◽  
Osama D. Sweidan
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Oil Market

How Structural Macroeconomic Shocks Can Explain Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing Countries: A Common Trend Approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1850161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karim Barhoumi
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
New Formulation ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through in 12 developing countries during the period 1980-2001 by adopting a new formulation. Rather than considering the traditional approach based on the exogenous exchange rate movement through correlation between exchange rate and prices, we focus on fundamental macroeconomic shocks that affect both exchange rate and prices. In order to do that, we employ long-run restrictions à la Blanchard and Quah (1989) to identify the different shocks through an open economic macroeconomic model (ISLM framework). We use the common trends approach proposed by Warne et al (1992). This allows us to calculate the pass-through as the responses of the exchange rate, CPI and import prices to the supply, the relative demand, the nominal and the foreign prices shocks. We show that the pass-through ratio in developing countries is different when considering different structural shocks.

scholarly journals The Effects of Structural Shocks on Turkish Economy

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Aşık
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Balance Growth ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Trend Growth

This paper investigates the role of the real business cycle dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with different shocks for a small open economy. The main goal of this study is to compare the effects of different structural shocks on the macroeconomic fluctuations of Turkey. Different types of shocks are employed, such as temporary shocks, trend growth shocks, and world interest rate shock as driving forces. In addition to investigating the effects of different shocks, we consider the effects of working capital requirements and spread as friction. Variance decompositions are computed to assess the role of shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations. I fit the model to the data using Bayesian techniques to determine which shock has the most impact on the business cycles of Turkish economy over the period from the first quarter of 1988 to the last quarter of 2012. The main findings are: (1) output, consumption, and investment growth are mostly driven by the trend growth shocks and temporary shocks are less important. (2) Trade balance growth are driven by world interest rate shocks. (3) Real business model is not successful to replicate the some of the key features of economic fluctuations.

scholarly journals The volatility of natural gas prices - Structural shocks and influencing factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Stajic ◽  
B. Đorđević ◽  
S. Ilić ◽  
D. Brkić
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Coal Production ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
The World ◽  
Natural Gas Prices ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Market

The paper examines the primary drivers and factors influencing the volatility of natural gas prices in the world from January 2007 to July 2020. In addition to the narrow dependence between crude oil and natural gas prices, the influence of renewable energy production and coal production on the price of natural gas has been studied. For that purpose, the method of multiple linear regression was used. The results show that the volatility of natural gas prices significantly depends on the type of the shock in the natural gas market, and that the total production of energy from renewable sources, production of coal and natural gas and the price of crude oil have a significant impact on the price of gas.

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