Juror understanding of the weight of evidence presented as a likelihood ratio and the impact on the deliberative process: a response to Buckleton, et al.

The article aims at analyzing the impact of deliberation on the dynamics of the conflicts in the policy making processes. We shall argue whether and how deliberation succeeds in stopping the typical escalation of the conflicts, lowering protests, generating more open-minded institutional decisions, reducing stereotypes and developing a new constructive approach in decision making. The analysis is based on the comparison of three recent cases of deliberative processes dealing with conflictual issues: a deliberative process on the hypothesis to write a bill regulating the use and power of the living will; a public debate on a new highway stretch in the city of Genova; a citizens' jury on the building of a small plant to dispose of industrial waste in the small tuscan town of Castelfranco.

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What is the impact of clinically assisted hydration in the last days of life? A systematic literature review and narrative synthesis

BMJ Supportive & Palliative Care ◽

10.1136/bmjspcare-2020-002600 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. bmjspcare-2020-002600

Author(s):

Arjun Kingdon ◽

Anna Spathis ◽

Robert Brodrick ◽

Gemma Clarke ◽

Isla Kuhn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Systematic Literature Review ◽

Weight Of Evidence ◽

Future Research ◽

Narrative Synthesis ◽

Evidence Framework ◽

Clinically Assisted Hydration ◽

Registration Number ◽

Review Protocol ◽

The Impact

BackgroundClinically assisted hydration (CAH) can be provided in the last days of life as drinking declines. The impact of this practice on quality of life or survival in the last days of life is unclear. Practice varies worldwide concerning this emotive issue.MethodSystematic literature review and narrative synthesis of studies evaluating the impact of, or attitudes toward, CAH in the last days of life. Databases were searched up to December 2019. Studies were included if the majority of participants were in the last 7 days of life, and were evaluated using Gough’s 'Weight of Evidence' framework. Review protocol registered with PROSPERO, registration number CRD42019125837.ResultsFifteen studies were included in the synthesis. None were judged to be both of high quality and relevance. No evidence was found that the provision of CAH has an impact on symptoms or survival. Patient and family carer attitudes toward assisted hydration were diverse.ConclusionThere is currently insufficient evidence to draw firm conclusions on the impact of CAH in the last days of life. Future research needs to focus on patients specifically in the last days of life, include those with non-malignant diagnoses, and evaluate best ways to communicate effectively about this complex topic with patients and their families.

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Mouse model of the human serotonin transporter-linked polymorphic region

Mammalian Genome ◽

10.1007/s00335-019-09815-2 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 30 (11-12) ◽

pp. 319-328

Author(s):

Lukasz Piszczek ◽

Simone Memoli ◽

Angelo Raggioli ◽

José Viosca ◽

Jeanette Rientjes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mouse Model ◽

Emotional Disorders ◽

Serotonin Transporter ◽

Single Copy ◽

Weight Of Evidence ◽

Polymorphic Region ◽

Common Genetic Variants ◽

Living Mouse ◽

Technical Issues ◽

The Impact

AbstractGenetic factors play a significant role in risk for mood and anxiety disorders. Polymorphisms in genes that regulate the brain monoamine systems, such as catabolic enzymes and transporters, are attractive candidates for being risk factors for emotional disorders given the weight of evidence implicating monoamines involvement in these conditions. Several common genetic variants have been identified in the human serotonin transporter (5-HTT) gene, including a repetitive sequence located in the promoter region of the locus called the serotonin transporter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTT-LPR). This polymorphism has been associated with a number of mental traits in both humans and primates, including depression, neuroticism, and harm avoidance. Some, but not all, studies found a link between the polymorphism and 5-HTT levels, leaving open the question of whether the polymorphism affects risk for mental traits via changes in 5-HTT expression. To investigate the impact of the polymorphism on gene expression, serotonin homeostasis, and behavioral traits, we set out to develop a mouse model of the human 5-HTT-LPR. Here we describe the creation and characterization of a set of mouse lines with single-copy human transgenes carrying the short and long 5-HTT-LPR variants. Although we were not able to detect differences in expression between the short and long variants, we encountered several technical issues concerning the design of our humanized mice that are likely to have influenced our findings. Our study serves as a cautionary note for future studies aimed at studying human transgene regulation in the context of the living mouse.

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A Controllable Success Fix Rate Threshold Determination Method for GNSS Ambiguity Acceptance Tests

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11070804 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 804 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Lei Wang ◽

Ruizhi Chen ◽

Lili Shen ◽

Fu Zheng ◽

Yanming Feng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Failure Rate ◽

Test Theory ◽

Acceptance Test ◽

Determination Method ◽

Ratio Requirement ◽

Threshold Determination ◽

Gnss Data ◽

The Impact ◽

Acceptance Tests

GNSS integer ambiguity acceptance test is one of the open problems in GNSS data processing. A number of ambiguity acceptance tests have been proposed from different perspectives and then unified into the integer aperture estimation framework. The existing comparative studies indicate that the impact of test statistics form on the test performance is less critical, while how to construct an efficient, practical test threshold is still challenging. Based on the likelihood ratio test theory, a new computationally efficient ambiguity acceptance test with controllable success fix rate, namely the fixed likelihood ratio (FL-) approach is proposed, which does not require Monte Carlo simulation. The study indicates that the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach can only control the overall failure rate of the acceptance region, but the local failure rate is not controllable. The proposed FL-approach only accepts the fixed solution meeting the likelihood ratio requirement. With properly chosen likelihood ratio threshold, the FL-approach achieves comparable success rate as the FF-approach and even lower failure rate than the FF-approach for the strong underlying model cases. The fixed success fix rate of the FL-approach is verified with both simulation data and real GNSS data. The numerical results indicate that the success fix rate of the FL-approach achieves >98% while the failure rate is <1.5%. The RTK positioning with ambiguities tested by the FL-approach achieved 1–2cm horizontal precision and 2–4 cm vertical precision for all tested baselines, which confirms that the FL-approach can serve as a reliable and efficient threshold determination method for the GNSS ambiguity acceptance test problem.

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Classifying Variants of Undetermined Significance in BRCA2 with Protein Likelihood Ratios

Cancer Informatics ◽

10.4137/cin.s618 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. CIN.S618 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Rachel Karchin ◽

Mukesh Agarwal ◽

Andrej Sali ◽

Fergus Couch ◽

Mary S. Beattie

Keyword(s):

Genetic Testing ◽

Protein Structure ◽

Tumor Suppressor ◽

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Cancer Susceptibility ◽

Suppressor Gene ◽

Medical Genetics ◽

Missense Mutations ◽

Likelihood Ratios ◽

The Impact

Background Missense (amino-acid changing) variants found in cancer predisposition genes often create difficulties when clinically interpreting genetic testing results. Although bioinformatics has developed approaches to predicting the impact of these variants, many of these approaches have not been readily applicable in the clinical setting. Bioinformatics approaches for predicting the impact of these variants have not yet found their footing in clinical practice because 1) interpreting the medical relevance of predictive scores is difficult; 2) the relationship between bioinformatics “predictors” (sequence conservation, protein structure) and cancer susceptibility is not understood. Methodology/Principal Findings We present a computational method that produces a probabilistic likelihood ratio predictive of whether a missense variant impairs protein function. We apply the method to a tumor suppressor gene, BRCA2, whose loss of function is important to cancer susceptibility. Protein likelihood ratios are computed for 229 unclassified variants found in individuals from high-risk breast/ovarian cancer families. We map the variants onto a protein structure model, and suggest that a cluster of predicted deleterious variants in the BRCA2 OB1 domain may destabilize BRCA2 and a protein binding partner, the small acidic protein DSS1. We compare our predictions with variant “re-classifications” provided by Myriad Genetics, a biotechnology company that holds the patent on BRCA2 genetic testing in the U.S., and with classifications made by an established medical genetics model [ 1 ]. Our approach uses bioinformatics data that is independent of these genetics-based classifications and yet shows significant agreement with them. Preliminary results indicate that our method is less likely to make false positive errors than other bioinformatics methods, which were designed to predict the impact of missense mutations in general. Conclusions/Significance Missense mutations are the most common disease-producing genetic variants. We present a fast, scalable bioinformatics method that integrates information about protein sequence, conservation, and structure in a likelihood ratio that can be integrated with medical genetics likelihood ratios. The protein likelihood ratio, together with medical genetics likelihood ratios, can be used by clinicians and counselors to communicate the relevance of a VUS to the individual who has that VUS. The approach described here is generalizable to regions of any tumor suppressor gene that have been structurally determined by X-ray crystallography or for which a protein homology model can be built.

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Does talking matter? A quasi-experiment assessing the impact of deliberation and information on opinion change

International Political Science Review ◽

10.1177/0192512118824459 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 41 (3) ◽

pp. 321-334 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Eoin O’Malley ◽

David M Farrell ◽

Jane Suiter

Keyword(s):

Deliberative Process ◽

Significant Development ◽

Opinion Change ◽

Independent Variables ◽

Deliberative Methods ◽

Post Test ◽

Comparison Groups ◽

Policy Problems ◽

The Impact ◽

Quasi Experiment

Deliberative democracy is for many the most significant development in democratic theory in the last 50 years and it has been used in some places to solve real-world policy problems. However, measuring the impact of deliberative methods is not clearly achievable because several independent variables are manipulated simultaneously. One of the main goals of deliberation is opinion change and thus it is important to understand why opinions change. This paper utilises comparison groups in order to isolate the impact of deliberation from information in the deliberative process. We outline the results of a quasi-experiment in which deliberation took place in a citizens’ assembly (CA) in Ireland. As part of this we measured the impact using pre- and post-test controls, including a group given the information the CA participants received, but without the deliberation. The results of the analysis provide evidence of a separate deliberation effect.

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A prediction model for chemotherapy-associated thrombocytopenia in cancer patients

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2006.24.18_suppl.8616 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽

pp. 8616-8616 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

N. M. Kuderer ◽

C. W. Francis ◽

J. Crawford ◽

D. C. Dale ◽

D. A. Wolff ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Prediction Model ◽

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Test Performance ◽

Dose Intensity ◽

High Specificity ◽

Performance Characteristics ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Model ◽

Model Based ◽

The Impact

8616 Background: Thrombocytopenia (TP) can lead to serious complications, however, little is known about the incidence and risk factors for chemotherapy-associated TP. A prospective, nationwide cohort study was undertaken to better define the impact of TP in cancer treatment. Methods: 2,842 patients with cancer of the breast, lung, colon, ovary or lymphoma initiating a new chemotherapy regimen have been prospectively enrolled at 115 randomly selected US community oncology practices between 2002 and 2005. Risk factors for chemotherapy-associated TP were identified, a multivariate logistic regression model based on pretreatment characteristics was developed, and test performance characteristics were estimated. Results: Over a median of 3 cycles of chemotherapy, minimum recorded platelet counts were: ≥150K in 53% of patients; 100–150K in 26%; 75–100K in 8%; 50–75K in 6% and <50K in 7%. Significant independent predictive factors for platelets <75K include type of cancer (P<.0001), type of chemotherapy including gemcitabine-based (P<.0001), anthracycline-based (P<.0001) and platinum-based (P<.0001) regimens, prior chemotherapy (P<.0001) or surgery (P=.005), age (P=.015), Caucasian ethnicity (P=.022), body surface area (P=.0001), planned relative dose intensity ≥85% (P=.082), diabetes (P=.018), pulmonary disease (P=.011), abnormal baseline platelets (P<.0001), hematocrit (P=0.030), alkaline phosphatase (P=.072) or albumin (P=.017). Model fit was good (Chi-square, P<.0001), R2 = 0.735 and c-statistic = 0.816 [95% CI: 0.792–0.840, P<.0001]. Model test performance characteristics [95% CI] at a ≥20% risk of TP include: sensitivity 56% [51–61]; specificity 88% [87–89]; likelihood ratio positive 4.63 [4.02–5.33]; likelihood ratio negative 0.50 [0.45–0.57]; and diagnostic odds ratio 9.22 [7.23–11.75]. Validation of the model is underway. Conclusions: This prediction model based on pretreatment factors identifies with high specificity patients at risk for clinically important chemotherapy-associated thrombocytopenia early in the treatment course. It may provide a valuable tool for guiding chemotherapy and new supportive care measures. [Table: see text]

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Selectivity, Information And The Return To Futures Trading

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v6i4.6277 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 59

Author(s):

John L. Trimble ◽

M. Wayne Marr

Keyword(s):

Statistical Tests ◽

Probability Model ◽

Trading Strategy ◽

Weight Of Evidence ◽

Controversial Issues ◽

Futures Trading ◽

Expected Return ◽

Futures Contract ◽

Gold Futures ◽

The Impact

One of the more controversial issues in modern financial economics and in futures trading in particular is whether traders have the ability to earn returns above what they could with a buy-and-hold strategy. The weight of evidence in support of Martingale price movements generally has been considered to be evidence that the expected value of trading returns is zero. This paper shows, however, that, when the contingent claims in a futures contract are taken into account in defining return, expected trading returns may not be zero, even if prices follow the Martingale pattern. We also point out that, if a sample of trades is representative of some trading strategy with its corresponding trading information, the impact of that strategy on a traders expected return can be represented by a probability model of the strategys success. This results because, to be successful, a trading strategy must select trades nonrandomly. Using these results, the paper specifies a model of the expected return of an arbitrary trading strategy. As an illustration, the model is estimated for an artificially constructed strategy in gold futures that imitates what the industry claims is the epitome of futures trading performance many small losses more than offset by a few big gains. Statistical tests based on the estimation of this model support the characterization of returns being due to the trading strategy using information to nonrandomly select trades.

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Principles for Assessing Adversity in Toxicologic Clinical Pathology

Toxicologic Pathology ◽

10.1177/0192623316681646 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 45 (2) ◽

pp. 260-266 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Lila Ramaiah ◽

Lindsay Tomlinson ◽

Niraj K. Tripathi ◽

Laura C. Cregar ◽

Allison Vitsky ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Clinical Pathology ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Data Interpretation ◽

Weight Of Evidence ◽

Regulatory Guidance ◽

Regulatory Affairs ◽

Safety Studies ◽

American Society ◽

The Impact

There is limited direction in the literature or regulatory guidance on determination of adversity for clinical pathology (CP) biomarkers in preclinical safety studies. Toxicologic clinical pathologists representing the American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology—Regulatory Affairs Committee and Society of Toxicologic Pathology—Clinical Pathology Interest Group identified principles, overall approach, and unique considerations for assessing adversity in CP data interpretation to provide a consensus opinion. Emphasized is the need for pathophysiologic context and a weight-of-evidence approach. Most CP biomarkers do not have the potential to be adverse in isolation, regardless of magnitude of change. Rather, they quantify or describe the impact of effects, provide adjunct or supportive information regarding a process or pathogenesis, and provide translational biomarkers of effect. Most often, CP changes are part of a constellation of findings that collectively are adverse. Thus, most CP changes must be interpreted in conjunction with other study findings and require contextual and integrative interpretation. Exceptions include critical CP changes without correlates that indicate a health risk in the tested species. Overall, CP changes should not be interpreted in isolation and their adversity is best addressed with an integrated approach.

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International Real Estate Review

International Real Estate Review ◽

10.53383/100280 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 197-229

Author(s):

Hui An ◽

◽

Qianmiao Zou ◽

Ying Zhang ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Housing Prices ◽

National Level ◽

Var Model ◽

Monthly Data ◽

Regional Characteristics ◽

Second Tier ◽

The Impact ◽

The City

In recent years, China has uniquely implemented various policies to control housing prices, particularly its property- purchasing limitation policy. This research proposes a vector autoregression (VAR) model with likelihood-ratio (LR) tests to examine the effects of such a policy on housing prices at the national, provincial and city levels in China, with the use of monthly data from 2002 to 2013. The results show that at the national level, the effect of the policy is very significant, and the impact on housing prices is far greater than monetary and credit policies. However, the policy is not applicable at the provincial level. The policy has a significant role at the city level in first-tier cities, but no significant effect in second- tier cities. Overall, property-purchasing limitations inhibit the growth of housing prices to some extent, and the effects show strong regional characteristics, especially at the city level. Policymakers should therefore take into account regional characteristics in the formulation and implementation of a property-purchasing limitation policy.

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