Max-stable based evaluation of impacts of climate indices on extreme precipitation processes across the Poyang Lake basin, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 271-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Mingzhong Xiao ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
Yongqin David Chen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Precipitation Processes

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Precipitation and Its Dependence on Topography over the Poyang Lake Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianghu Li ◽  
Qi Hu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Changes ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Precipitation Events

Spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation at local scales in the context of climate warming are overwhelmingly important for prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters and also provide critical information for effective water resources management. In this study, the variability and trends of extreme precipitation in both time and space in the Poyang Lake basin over the period of 1960–2012 are analyzed. Also, changes in precipitation extremes with topography are investigated, and possible causes are briefly discussed. The results show that extreme precipitation over the Poyang Lake basin is intensified during the last 50 years, especially the increasing trends are more significant before the end of the 1990s. Moreover, high contribution rates of extreme precipitation to the total rainfall (40–60%) indicated that extreme precipitation plays an important role to the total water resources in this area. The precipitation extremes also exhibited a significant spatial dependence in the basin. The northeastern and eastern areas are exposed to high risk of flood disaster with the higher frequency of extreme precipitation events. In addition, the distribution of precipitation extremes had a clear dependence on elevation, and the topography is an important factor affecting the variability of extreme precipitation over the Poyang Lake basin.

scholarly journals Regional Characteristics of Long-Term Variability of Summer Precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin and Possible Links with Large-Scale Circulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1033
Author(s):  
Hua Zhu ◽  
Handan He ◽  
Hongxiang Fan ◽  
Ligang Xu ◽  
Jiahu Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Regional Characteristics ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Region I ◽  
Region Ii

Understanding the spatiotemporal regime of summer precipitation at local scales plays a key role in regional prevention and mitigation of floods disasters and water resources management. Previous works focused on spatiotemporal characteristics of a region as a whole but left the influence of associated physical factors on sub-regions unexplored. Based on the precipitation data of 77 meteorological stations in the Poyang Lake basin (PYLB) from 1959 to 2013, we have investigated regional characteristics of summer precipitation in the PYLB by integrating the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis with hierarchical clustering algorithm (HCA). Then the long-term variability of summer precipitation in sub-regions of the PYLB and possible links with large-scale circulations was investigated using multiple trend analyses, wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. The results indicate that summer precipitation variations in the PYLB were of very striking regional characteristics. The PYLB was divided into three independent sub-regions based on two leading REOF modes and silhouette coefficient (SC). These sub-regions were located in northern PYLB (sub-region I), central PYLB (sub-region II), and southern PYLB (sub-region III). The summer precipitation in different sub-regions exhibited distinct variation trends and periodicities, which was associated with different factors. All sub-regions show no trends over the whole period 1959–2013, rather they show trends in different periods. Trends per decade in annual summer precipitation in sub-region I and sub-region II were consistent for all periods with different start and end years. The oscillations periods with 2–3 years were found in summer precipitation of all the three sub-regions. Summer precipitation in sub-region I was significantly positively correlated with the previous Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, but negatively correlated with East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). While summer precipitation in sub-region II and sub-region III showed weak teleconnections with climate indices. All of the results of this study are conducive to further understand both the regional climate variations in the PYLB and response to circulation patterns variations.

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin, China

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 1809-1824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianyu Liu ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
Xihui Gu ◽  
Peijun Shi
Keyword(s):  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Flood Characteristics

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Indices over the Poyang Lake Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weilin Liu ◽  
Shengnan Zhu ◽  
Yipeng Huang ◽  
Yifan Wan ◽  
Bin Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Decadal Scale

The intensity and frequency of droughts in Poyang Lake Basin have been increasing due to global warming. To properly manage water resources and mitigate drought disasters, it is important to understand the long-term characteristics of drought and its possible link with large-scale climate indices. Based on the monthly meteorological data of 41 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake Basin from 1958 to 2017, the spatiotemporal variations of drought were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) methods and the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of drought. Furthermore, to reveal possible links between drought variations and large-scale climate indices in Poyang Lake Basin, the relationships between SPEI and large-scale climate indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were examined using cross-wavelet transform. The results showed that the SPEI in Poyang Lake Basin exhibited relatively stable quasi-periodic oscillation, with approximate quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year periods at the inter-annual scale and quasi-15-year and quasi-30-year periods at the inter-decadal scale from 1958 to 2017. Moreover, the Poyang Lake Basin experienced an insignificantly wetter trend as a whole at the annual and seasonal scales during the period of 1958–2017, except for spring, which had a drought trend. The special characteristics of the trend variations were markedly different in the basin. The areas in which drought was most likely to occur were mainly located in the Poyang Lake region, northwest and south of the basin, respectively. Furthermore, relationships between the drought and six climate indices showed that the drought exhibited a significant temporal correlation with five climate indices at restricted intervals, except for IOD. The dominant influences of the large-scale climate indices on the drought evolutions shifted in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1958–2017, from the NAO, Niño 3.4, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) before the late 1960s and early 1970s, to the AO and PDO during the 1980s, then to the NAO, AO and SOI after the early 2000s. The NAO, AO and SOI exerted a significant influence on the drought events in the basin. The results of this study will benefit regional water resource management, agriculture production, and ecosystem protection in the Poyang Lake Basin.

scholarly journals Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Possible Influence of ENSO Events in a Humid Basin in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1522
Author(s):  
Xiaoxia Yang ◽  
Juan Wu ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Xuchun Ye
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices

In this study, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected to examine the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1960–2017. The responses of extreme precipitation indices to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of different Pacific Ocean areas were further investigated. The results show that the temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin has increased significantly since the 1990s, and the inter-decadal precipitation fluctuated. Most extreme precipitation indices showed an increasing trend with abrupt changes occurring around 1991. Spatially, most of the extreme precipitation indices decreased from northeast to southwest. The increasing trend of most indices in the center and south of the basin was relatively prominent. The linear correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and Nino 1 + 2 were the most significant. On the timescale of 2–6 years, a common oscillation period between the extreme precipitation of the basin and the four ENSO indices can be observed. After 2010, the positive correlation between the precipitation of the Poyang Lake Basin and the SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific increased significantly. Additionally, annual total wet–day precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increased with varying degrees in warm ENSO years. The results of this study will improve the understanding of the complex background and driving mechanism of flood disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin.

scholarly journals Influences of the timing of extreme precipitation on floods in Poyang Lake, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianghu Li ◽  
Qi Hu ◽  
Rong Wang ◽  
Dan Zhang ◽  
Qi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Storm Water ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Hydrodynamic Simulation ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Flood Level

Abstract Changes in the timing of extreme precipitation have important ramifications for public safety and storm water management, but it has not received much attention in relation to flooding. This study analyzed the changes in the timing of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin and projected its future changes for the period 2020–2099. The study also quantified the influences of changes in the timing of peak flows on lake floods based on a hydrodynamic model. The results showed that peak rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin had occurred on later dates during the period 1960–2012, and it is this change that caused a delay in peak streamflows from five rivers in the lake basin. Moreover, the effects of these changes are expected to be more prominent during 2020–2099; for example, the rate of delay will be about 2.0 days per 10 years both for peak rainfall and for streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin. The hydrodynamic simulation further showed that a delay of peak streamflows from five rivers would significantly increase the flood level and outflow of the lake and also prolong the duration of floods. These results indicate that the risk of floods in Poyang Lake is likely to increase in the future, therefore making flood control in this region more challenging.

scholarly journals Observed Exposure of Population and Gross Domestic Product to Extreme Precipitation Events in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingjin Zhan ◽  
Jianqing Zhai ◽  
Hemin Sun ◽  
Xiucang Li ◽  
Lingjun Xia
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
Exposed Population

Based on the observation data from the Poyang Lake Basin (China), an extreme precipitation event (EPE) is defined as that for which daily precipitation exceeded a threshold of 50 mm over a continuous area for a given time scale. By considering the spatiotemporal continuity of EPEs, the intensity–area–duration method is applied to study both the characteristics of EPEs and the population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures. The main results are as follows. (1) During 1961–2014, the frequencies and the intensities of the EPEs are found to be increasing. (2) The annual area impacted by EPEs is determined as 7.4 × 104 km2 with a general upward trend of 400 km2/year. (3) The annually exposed population is estimated as 19% of the entire population of the Basin, increasing by 1.37 × 105/year. The annual exposure of GDP is 8.5% of the entire GDP of the Basin, increasing by 3.8 billion Yuan/year. The Poyang Lake Basin experiences serious extreme precipitation with increasing trends in frequency, intensity, and exposure (for both GDP and population). It is imperative that effective disaster prevention and reduction measures be adopted in this area to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability of seasonal precipitation in Poyang Lake basin and possible links with climate indices

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (S1) ◽  
pp. 51-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Shao ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Sunyun Lv ◽  
Jianping Bing
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Cross Wavelet

Based on the precipitation data of 21 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake basin, the temporal and spatial variability of seasonal precipitation was analyzed by wavelet analysis method. This study adopted the cross wavelet transform to analyze the correlation between the seasonal precipitation and climate indices in time and frequency scales, discussed the possible links between its precipitation variations and climate indices, and preliminarily analyzed its mechanism and regular pattern of variation. The results showed that the oscillations in 2–4 years' and 4–8 years' bands were the main variation periods of seasonal precipitation in Poyang Lake basin. In the 2–4 years' band, the years of rainfall peaks appearing in Poyang Lake were basically consistent with the years when El Niño appeared, and the precipitation oscillations in summer appeared more dramatic in space. According to analysis on the cross wavelet power spectra between different seasonal rainfalls and climate indices, certain correlations between climate factors and seasonal precipitation had existed in specific time periods. Large-scale climate oscillations like the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation caused the variability of large-scale circulations through their respective independent or inter-coupled climate systems, and affected the precipitation distribution in Poyang Lake basin by changing local climate conditions like the East Asian Monsoon.

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