Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics for the Poyang Lake Basin Based on Statistical Downscaling Model

Spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation at local scales in the context of climate warming are overwhelmingly important for prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters and also provide critical information for effective water resources management. In this study, the variability and trends of extreme precipitation in both time and space in the Poyang Lake basin over the period of 1960–2012 are analyzed. Also, changes in precipitation extremes with topography are investigated, and possible causes are briefly discussed. The results show that extreme precipitation over the Poyang Lake basin is intensified during the last 50 years, especially the increasing trends are more significant before the end of the 1990s. Moreover, high contribution rates of extreme precipitation to the total rainfall (40–60%) indicated that extreme precipitation plays an important role to the total water resources in this area. The precipitation extremes also exhibited a significant spatial dependence in the basin. The northeastern and eastern areas are exposed to high risk of flood disaster with the higher frequency of extreme precipitation events. In addition, the distribution of precipitation extremes had a clear dependence on elevation, and the topography is an important factor affecting the variability of extreme precipitation over the Poyang Lake basin.

Download Full-text

Max-stable based evaluation of impacts of climate indices on extreme precipitation processes across the Poyang Lake basin, China

Global and Planetary Change ◽

10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.09.005 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 122 ◽

pp. 271-281 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Qiang Zhang ◽

Mingzhong Xiao ◽

Vijay P. Singh ◽

Yongqin David Chen

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Poyang Lake Basin ◽

Precipitation Processes

Download Full-text

Response of rainfall erosivity to changes in extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation ◽

10.2489/jswc.2020.00203 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 75 (4) ◽

pp. 537-548

Author(s):

X. Li ◽

Q. Hu ◽

Q. Zhang ◽

R. Wang

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Rainfall Erosivity ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Poyang Lake Basin

Download Full-text

Changes of Extreme Precipitation and Possible Influence of ENSO Events in a Humid Basin in China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12111522 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 1522

Author(s):

Xiaoxia Yang ◽

Juan Wu ◽

Jia Liu ◽

Xuchun Ye

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Driving Mechanism ◽

Enso Events ◽

Poyang Lake Basin ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽

Precipitation Indices

In this study, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected to examine the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1960–2017. The responses of extreme precipitation indices to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of different Pacific Ocean areas were further investigated. The results show that the temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin has increased significantly since the 1990s, and the inter-decadal precipitation fluctuated. Most extreme precipitation indices showed an increasing trend with abrupt changes occurring around 1991. Spatially, most of the extreme precipitation indices decreased from northeast to southwest. The increasing trend of most indices in the center and south of the basin was relatively prominent. The linear correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and Nino 1 + 2 were the most significant. On the timescale of 2–6 years, a common oscillation period between the extreme precipitation of the basin and the four ENSO indices can be observed. After 2010, the positive correlation between the precipitation of the Poyang Lake Basin and the SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific increased significantly. Additionally, annual total wet–day precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increased with varying degrees in warm ENSO years. The results of this study will improve the understanding of the complex background and driving mechanism of flood disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin.

Download Full-text

Influences of the timing of extreme precipitation on floods in Poyang Lake, China

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2021.078 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 52 (1) ◽

pp. 26-42 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Xianghu Li ◽

Qi Hu ◽

Rong Wang ◽

Dan Zhang ◽

Qi Zhang

Keyword(s):

Water Management ◽

Hydrodynamic Model ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Flood Control ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Storm Water ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Hydrodynamic Simulation ◽

Poyang Lake Basin ◽

Flood Level

Abstract Changes in the timing of extreme precipitation have important ramifications for public safety and storm water management, but it has not received much attention in relation to flooding. This study analyzed the changes in the timing of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin and projected its future changes for the period 2020–2099. The study also quantified the influences of changes in the timing of peak flows on lake floods based on a hydrodynamic model. The results showed that peak rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin had occurred on later dates during the period 1960–2012, and it is this change that caused a delay in peak streamflows from five rivers in the lake basin. Moreover, the effects of these changes are expected to be more prominent during 2020–2099; for example, the rate of delay will be about 2.0 days per 10 years both for peak rainfall and for streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin. The hydrodynamic simulation further showed that a delay of peak streamflows from five rivers would significantly increase the flood level and outflow of the lake and also prolong the duration of floods. These results indicate that the risk of floods in Poyang Lake is likely to increase in the future, therefore making flood control in this region more challenging.

Download Full-text

Observed Exposure of Population and Gross Domestic Product to Extreme Precipitation Events in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10120817 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 817 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mingjin Zhan ◽

Jianqing Zhai ◽

Hemin Sun ◽

Xiucang Li ◽

Lingjun Xia

Keyword(s):

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Poyang Lake ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Precipitation Event ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Observation Data ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Poyang Lake Basin ◽

Exposed Population

Based on the observation data from the Poyang Lake Basin (China), an extreme precipitation event (EPE) is defined as that for which daily precipitation exceeded a threshold of 50 mm over a continuous area for a given time scale. By considering the spatiotemporal continuity of EPEs, the intensity–area–duration method is applied to study both the characteristics of EPEs and the population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures. The main results are as follows. (1) During 1961–2014, the frequencies and the intensities of the EPEs are found to be increasing. (2) The annual area impacted by EPEs is determined as 7.4 × 104 km2 with a general upward trend of 400 km2/year. (3) The annually exposed population is estimated as 19% of the entire population of the Basin, increasing by 1.37 × 105/year. The annual exposure of GDP is 8.5% of the entire GDP of the Basin, increasing by 3.8 billion Yuan/year. The Poyang Lake Basin experiences serious extreme precipitation with increasing trends in frequency, intensity, and exposure (for both GDP and population). It is imperative that effective disaster prevention and reduction measures be adopted in this area to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation.

Download Full-text