Non-stationarities in the relationships of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area and the large-scale circulation in the second half of the 20th century

2017 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 108-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Merkenschlager ◽  
Elke Hertig ◽  
Jucundus Jacobeit
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Pascal Yiou ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
...  

<p>Windstorms, extreme precipitations and instant floods seems to strike the Mediterranean area with increasing frequency. These events occur simultaneously during intense tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones. These intense Mediterranean cyclones are frequently associated with wind, heavy precipitation and changes in temperature, generating high risk situations such as flash floods and large-scale floods with significant impacts on human life and built environment. Although the dynamics of these phenomena is well understood, little is know about their climatology. It is therefore very difficult to make statements about the frequency of occurrence and its response to climate change. Thus, intense Mediterranean cyclones have many different physical aspects that can not be captured by a simple standard approach. </p><p>The first challenge of this work is to provide an extended catalogue and climatology of these phenomena by reconstructing a database of intense Mediterranean cyclones dating back up to 1969 using the satellite, the literature and reanalyses. Applying a method based on dynamical systems theory we analyse and attribute their future changes under different anthropogenic forcings by using future simulations within CMIP framework. Preliminary results show a decrease of the large-scale circulation patterns favoring intense Mediterranean cyclones in all the seasons except summer.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-42
Author(s):  
C Merkenschlager ◽  
E Hertig

Within the context of analyzing daily heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century, a new method considering non-stationarities in the relationships of large-scale circulation predictors and regional precipitation extremes was applied. The Mediterranean area was split into up to 22 precipitation regions, and analyses were performed separately for 3 different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) and 3 different quantiles (90th, 95th and 99th). Estimations are based on a three-step censored quantile regression. Future estimations are performed by means of 3 model runs of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Overall, the Mediterranean is mainly characterized by decreasing quantile values. Especially in the regions in the southeast, declines are significant, with up to 71.7% (-1.65 mm) in the Levante region (autumn) and over 16 mm (-38.2%) on Crete (winter). Increased precipitation quantiles were only assessed for a more or less extended region in the northern parts of the Central Mediterranean (winter and spring), for the northeastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula (autumn) and for northern Spain (spring). Overall, analyses showed that non-stationarities seriously affect precipitation behavior in most parts of the Mediterranean. Results indicated that 2 different regimes (western and eastern) inducing non-stationarities are predominant in the Mediterranean area. In autumn (winter), the western (eastern) regime is limited to the Iberian Peninsula (Levante), whereas in spring, the area of influence of both regimes is of equal size.


1997 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Viti ◽  
D. Albarello ◽  
E. Mantovani

Seismological investigations have provided an estimate of the gross structnral features of the crust/upper mantle system in the Mediterranean area. However, this information is only representative of the short-term me- chanical behaviour of rocks and cannot help us to understand slow deformations and related tectonic processes on the geological time scale. In this work strength envelopes for several major structural provinces of the Mediterranean area have been tentatively derived from seismological stratification and heat flow data, on the assumption of constant and uniforrn strain rate (10-16 S-1), wet rocks and conductive geotherm. It is also shown how the uncertainties in the reconstruction of thermal profiles can influence the main rheological prop- erties of the lithosphere, as thickness and total strength. The thickest (50-70 km) and strongest mechanical lithospheres correspond to the coldest zones (with heat flow lower than or equal to 50 mW m-2), i.e., the Io- nian and Levantine mesozoic basins, the Adriatic and Eurasian foreland zones and NW Greece. Heat flows larger than 65 mW m-2, generally observed in extensional zones (Tyrrhenian, Sicily Channel, Northern Aegean, Macedonia and Western Turkey), are mostly related to mechanical lithospheres thinner than 20 km. The characteristics of strength envelopes, and in particular the presence of soft layers in the crust, suggest a reasonable interpretation of some large-scale features which characterize the tectonic evolution of the Central- Eastem Mediterranean.


2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1124-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Shi ◽  
Xiangde Xu ◽  
Chungu Lu

Abstract In the winter of 2008, China experienced once-in-50-yr (or once in 100 yr for some regions) snow and ice storms. These storms brought huge socio economical impacts upon the Chinese people and government. Although the storms had been predicted, their severity and persistence were largely underestimated. In this study, these cases were revisited and comprehensive analyses of the storms’ dynamic and thermodynamic structures were conducted. These snowstorms were also compared with U.S. east coast snowstorms. The results from this study will provide insights on how to improve forecasts for these kinds of snowstorms. The analyses demonstrated that the storms exhibited classic patterns of large-scale circulation common to these types of snowstorms. However, several physical processes were found to be unique and thought to have played crucial roles in intensifying and prolonging China’s great snowstorms of 2008. These include a subtropical high over the western Pacific, an upper-level jet stream, and temperature and moisture inversions. The combined effects of these dynamic and thermodynamic structures are responsible for the development of the storms into one of the most disastrous events in Chinese history.


Author(s):  
Gerassimos Papadopoulos

According to Imamura (1937: 123), the term tunami or tsunami is a combination of the Japanese word tu (meaning a port) and nami (a long wave), hence long wave in a harbour. He goes on to say that the meaning might also be defined as a seismic sea-wave since most tsunamis are produced by a sudden dip-slip motion along faults during major earthquakes. Other submarine or coastal phenomena, however, such as volcanic eruptions, landslides, and gas escapes, are also known to cause tsunamis. According to Van Dorn (1968), ‘tsunami’ is the Japanese name for the gravity wave system formed in the sea following any large-scale, short-duration disturbance of the free surface. Tsunamis fall under the general classification of long waves. The length of the waves is of the order of several tens or hundreds of kilometres and tsunamis usually consist of a series of waves that approach the coast with periods ranging from 5 to 90 minutes (Murty 1977). Some commonly used terms that describe tsunami wave propagation and inundation are illustrated in Figure 17.2. Because of the active lithospheric plate convergence, the Mediterranean area is geodynamically characterized by significant volcanism and high seismicity as discussed in Chapters 15 and 16 respectively. Furthermore, coastal and submarine landslides are quite frequent and this is partly in response to the steep terrain of much of the basin (Papadopoulos et al. 2007a). Tsunamis are among the most remarkable phenomena associated with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides in the Mediterranean basin. Until recently, however, it was widely believed that tsunamis either did not occur in the Mediterranean Sea, or they were so rare that they did not pose a threat to coastal communities. Catastrophic tsunamis are more frequent on Pacific Ocean coasts where both local and transoceanic tsunamis have been documented (Soloviev 1970). In contrast, large tsunami recurrence in the Mediterranean is of the order of several decades and the memory of tsunamis is short-lived. Most people are only aware of the extreme Late Bronge Age tsunami that has been linked to the powerful eruption of Thera volcano in the south Aegean Sea (Marinatos 1939; Chapter 15).


2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102-1116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Dettinger ◽  
Kelly Redmond ◽  
Daniel Cayan

Abstract The extent to which winter precipitation is orographically enhanced within the Sierra Nevada of California varies from storm to storm, and season to season, from occasions when precipitation rates at low and high altitudes are almost the same to instances when precipitation rates at middle elevations (considered here) can be as much as 30 times more than at the base of the range. Analyses of large-scale conditions associated with orographic precipitation variations during storms and seasons from 1954 to 1999 show that strongly orographic storms most commonly have winds that transport water vapor across the range from a more nearly westerly direction than during less orographic storms and than during the largest overall storms, and generally the strongly orographic storms are less convectively stable. Strongly orographic conditions often follow heavy precipitation events because both of these wind conditions are present in midlatitude cyclones that form the cores of many Sierra Nevada storms. Storms during La Niña winters tend to yield larger orographic ratios (ORs) than do those during El Niños. A simple experiment with a model of streamflows from a river basin draining the central Sierra Nevada indicates that, for a fixed overall basin-precipitation amount, a decrease in OR contributes to larger winter flood peaks and smaller springtime flows, and thus to an overall hastening of the runoff season.


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 907-941
Author(s):  
M. Messmer ◽  
J. J. Gómez-Navarro ◽  
C. C. Raible

Abstract. Cyclones, which develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward are a major source of extreme weather and known to be responsible for heavy precipitation over Central Europe and the Alps. As the relevant processes triggering these so-called Vb-events and their impact on extreme precipitation are not yet fully understood, this study focusses on gaining insight into the dynamics of past events. For this, a cyclone detection and tracking tool is applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2013) to identify prominent Vb-situations. Precipitation in the ERA-Interim and the E-OBS datasets is used to evaluate case-to-case precipitation amounts and to assess consistency between the two datasets. Both datasets exhibit high variability in precipitation amounts among different Vb-events. While only 23 % of all Vb-events are associated with extreme precipitation, around 15 % of all extreme precipitation days (99 percentile) over the Alpine region are induced by Vb-events, although Vb-cyclones are rare events (2.3 per year). To obtain a better understanding of the variability within Vb-events, the analysis of the 10 heaviest and lowest precipitation Vb-events reveals noticeable differences in the state of the atmosphere. These differences are most pronounced in the geopotential height and potential vorticity field, indicating a much stronger cyclone for heavy precipitation events. The related differences in wind direction are responsible for the moisture transport around the Alps and the orographical lifting along the Alps. These effects are the main reasons for a disastrous outcome of Vb-events, and consequently are absent in the Vb-events associated with low precipitation. Hence, our results point out that heavy precipitation related to Vb-events is mainly related to large-scale dynamics rather than to thermodynamic processes.


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