scholarly journals Real-time spatial health surveillance: mapping the UK COVID-19 epidemic

Author(s):  
Richard Fry ◽  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Helen R Stagg ◽  
Daniel A Thompson ◽  
Claudio Fronterre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e050346
Author(s):  
Daniel J Laydon ◽  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
Wes R Hinsley ◽  
Pantelis Samartsidis ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.DesignThis is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.SettingThe UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.ResultsNationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.ConclusionsThe relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaovi M. G. Hounmanou ◽  
Murielle S. S. Agonsanou ◽  
Victorien Dougnon ◽  
Mahougnon H. B. Vodougnon ◽  
Ephraim M. Achoh ◽  
...  

A cross-sectional study was conducted in March 2016 to assess the need of mobile phone technologies for health surveillance and interventions in Benin. Questionnaires were administered to 130 individuals comprising 25 medical professionals, 33 veterinarians, and 72 respondents from the public. All respondents possess cell phones and 75%, 84%, and 100% of the public, medical professionals, and veterinarians, respectively, generally use them for medical purposes. 75% of respondents including 68% of medics, 84.8% of veterinarians, and 72.2% of the public acknowledged that the current surveillance systems are ineffective and do not capture and share real-time information. More than 92% of the all respondents confirmed that mobile phones have the potential to improve health surveillance in the country. All respondents reported adhering to a nascent project of mobile phone-based health surveillance and confirmed that there is no existing similar approach in the country. The most preferred methods by all respondents for effective implementation of such platform are phone calls (96.92%) followed by SMS (49.23%) and smart phone digital forms (41.53%). This study revealed urgent needs of mobile phone technologies for health surveillance and interventions in Benin for real-time surveillance and efficient disease prevention.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netta Weinstein ◽  
James Wilsdon ◽  
Jennifer Chubb ◽  
Geoff Haddock

The UK first introduced a national research assessment exercise in 1986, and methods of assessment continue to evolve. Following the 2016 Stern Review and further rounds of technical consultation, the UK higher education community is now preparing for the next Research Excellence Framework – REF 2021.Despite its importance in shaping UK research cultures, there is limited systematic and nuanced evidence about how academics across the sector view the REF, and which aspects are viewed favourably or unfavourably. The aims of this pilot study were twofold: first, it was designed to gather initial data to address this evidence gap; second, it was aimed at testing the feasibility of conducting a longitudinal study into academic and managerial attitudes towards the REF. We argue that further research to better understand the effects of the REF on research cultures, institutions, and individuals should be part of the evidence used to inform the development of future iterations of the exerciseThe Real Time REF Review Pilot Study was developed and delivered by a research team from Cardiff University and the University of Sheffield, in collaboration with Research England.


BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S209-S210
Author(s):  
Rachel Moir ◽  
Roshelle Ramkisson ◽  
Seri Abraham ◽  
Shevonne Matheiken

AimsWhen the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic hit the UK, clinicians within Pennine Care NHS Foundation Trust (a five-borough mental health trust) were faced with the challenge of rapidly switching to a novel way of assessing patients remotely.The idea for a QI project on trainees’ experience with remote consultations was conceived in April 2020. We present our February 2021 results here.We aimed to improve trainee confidence in conducting remote psychiatric assessments by at least 40%, to ensure effective and safe patient care during their 6 months placement.MethodOur discovery process included surveying trainees in April 2020 to explore experiences with remote psychiatric consultations, a literature search of current UK guidance and a local audit. The audit reviewed documentation of consent to remote consultations, with reference to standards as per NHS England remote consultation guidance. Key change ideas included publication of an article, ‘Remote consultations – top tips for clinical practitioners’, video-simulated remote consultations and a session on remote consultations in the trainee induction.In the first ‘plan-do-study-act’ (PDSA) cycle, we presented key findings from the article in a video presentation, which was sent trust-wide. We measured confidence in conducting remote assessments pre- and post-presentation via a feedback survey. Unfortunately, response rates were low and in the second PDSA cycle we targeted a smaller cohort of trainees at the August 2020 induction, although encountered similar difficulties. In the third PDSA cycle, we collected real-time data using an interactive app at the February 2021 trainee induction, and measured pre- and post- confidence following a presentation and a video-simulated remote consultation.Result2/34 respondents had accessed previous remote psychiatric consultation training and12/35 had some telepsychiatry experience. Pre-induction trainee confidence results revealed: extremely uncomfortable (16%), not confident (31%), neutral (47%), confident (6%) and very confident (0%) and post-induction confidence was 0%, 22%, 52%, 26% and 0%, respectively.ConclusionOur project started during the first peak of the pandemic, which may be a reason for initial limited response rates. Our results suggest that the remote psychiatric consultation trainee induction session has shown some improvement in trainee confidence; the ‘confident’ cohort improved from 6% to 26%.Our next steps include collecting similar real-time data, mid-rotation and uploading video-simulated remote consultations to the Trust Intranet. We plan to complete the local audit cycle. We also plan to incorporate patient experience (from an ongoing systematic review) to inform a potential triage process post-pandemic, choosing between face-to-face versus remote consultations.


2009 ◽  
Vol 58 (12) ◽  
pp. 1601-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathie A. Grant ◽  
Ijeoma Nwarfor ◽  
Obioma Mpamugo ◽  
Vina Mithani ◽  
Paula Lister ◽  
...  

Infant botulism is a rare disease in the UK, with the first case being recognized in 1978 and only five subsequent cases being reported before 2007. This study reports two unlinked cases of infant botulism, caused by two distinct strains of Clostridium botulinum (toxin types A and B, respectively), that occurred within a single month in the south-east of England in October 2007. The use of real-time PCR to detect C. botulinum neurotoxin genes in clinical specimens to improve the diagnostic procedure and to follow carriage of the causative organism in the infant gut is described. The laboratory investigation of these two cases demonstrated that a combination of the mouse bioassay, real-time PCR assays and conventional microbiological culture can provide rapid confirmation of a clinical diagnosis and affect patient management. Both infants (aged 4 and 8 months) were previously healthy prior to the onset of symptoms, and in both cases, a diagnosis of infant botulism was delayed for at least 10 days after initial admission to hospital. Once diagnosed, one of the infants was the first in the UK to be treated with human-derived botulism immunoglobulin. Real-time PCR was used to demonstrate that C. botulinum was excreted in the infants' faeces for up to 68 and 81 days, respectively. Despite the infrequency of infant botulism in the UK, clinicians should be aware of this rare but serious condition and should seek microbiological advice when presented with young infants with compatible symptomologies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Charles Bricongne ◽  
Baptiste Meunier ◽  
Pouget Sylvain
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
N. B. Rachana ◽  
K. G. Srinivasa ◽  
S. Seema

The Airplane Health Surveillance System is an information system which is designed to guide the pilot to make decision under uncertainty. The system is expected to detect the defect along with cause for the delay and airplane crashes which has high impact on society. The system is capable of detecting and diagnosing the defects which may be initiated during a flight. There by trigger a maintenance procedure to safeguard the airplane from possible odds by analyzing the effects caused by the defect detected. Airplane health surveillance system collects data in real-time from flying fleet and makes it available to ground operations. Ground system aims at incorporating new technical and functional features to provide best in class features for operational and strategic insight. In this work two actors are considered namely supplier (airplane manufacturer who delivers the services) and operator (operates the airplane in day to day life). This is a user friendly though has a very powerful impact on the aerospace division by eliminating the uncertain economic loss.


2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Garratt ◽  
Kevin Lee ◽  
Emi Mise ◽  
Kalvinder Shields

2010 ◽  
Vol 61 (9) ◽  
pp. 2169-2175 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Thornton ◽  
N. Sunner ◽  
M. Haeck

The use of the activated sludge process (ASP) for the nitrification/denitrification of wastewaters is commonplace throughout the UK and many other parts of the industrial world. Associated with this process are significant costs arising from aeration requirements and for selected sites, the need to provide an external carbon source. These costs can constitute up to of 50% of the total running cost of the whole plant and as such, any effort to reduce them could realise significant benefits. This paper investigates the use of real time control (RTC) using online sensors and control algorithms to optimise the operation of the ASP, leading to greater efficiency and sustainability. Trials were undertaken at full scale to assess the benefit of such a system at a 250,000 population equivalent (PE) works on the south coast of the UK, using Activated sludge model No.1 (ASM 1) as a basis for the control system. Initial results indicate that it is possible to significantly reduce both aeration and chemical consumption costs whilst still delivering the required effluent quality. Over the trial period the aeration requirements were consistently reduced by 20% whereas, a reduction in methanol consumption of in excess of 50% was observed.


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