Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Garratt ◽  
Kevin Lee ◽  
Emi Mise ◽  
Kalvinder Shields
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Time Representation ◽  
The Uk

Using Real-Time Output Gaps to Examine Past and Future Policy Choices

2009 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 98-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Adam ◽  
David Cobham
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Reaction Functions ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Output Gaps

Alternative measures of the UK output gap are considered for 1984–2007. The real-time series is strongly affected by the rolling-time estimation of the trend, and produces a picture of the business cycle which is not consistent with contemporary perceptions of the large fluctuations of the late 1980s and early 1990s. A new, ‘nearly-real’, measure developed here may be better for estimating historical reaction functions. In the context of the current recession, none of these mechanically derived measures of the output gap are useful. Policymakers should make careful estimates of the likely fall in potential output on the basis of other information.

A Real Time Control Architecture for Continuously Managing Patients in a Care Unit

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 475-488
Author(s):  
B. Seroussi ◽  
J. F. Boisvieux ◽  
V. Morice
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
Control Architecture ◽  
Real Time Control ◽  
Time Representation ◽  
Time Control ◽  
Continuous Support ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Computerized System

Abstract:The monitoring and treatment of patients in a care unit is a complex task in which even the most experienced clinicians can make errors. A hemato-oncology department in which patients undergo chemotherapy asked for a computerized system able to provide intelligent and continuous support in this task. One issue in building such a system is the definition of a control architecture able to manage, in real time, a treatment plan containing prescriptions and protocols in which temporal constraints are expressed in various ways, that is, which supervises the treatment, including controlling the timely execution of prescriptions and suggesting modifications to the plan according to the patient’s evolving condition. The system to solve these issues, called SEPIA, has to manage the dynamic, processes involved in patient care. Its role is to generate, in real time, commands for the patient’s care (execution of tests, administration of drugs) from a plan, and to monitor the patient’s state so that it may propose actions updating the plan. The necessity of an explicit time representation is shown. We propose using a linear time structure towards the past, with precise and absolute dates, open towards the future, and with imprecise and relative dates. Temporal relative scales are introduced to facilitate knowledge representation and access.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e050346
Author(s):  
Daniel J Laydon ◽  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
Wes R Hinsley ◽  
Pantelis Samartsidis ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Time Reproduction ◽  
Tier System ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Trends ◽  
Tier 3 ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.DesignThis is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.SettingThe UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.ResultsNationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.ConclusionsThe relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.

scholarly journals Real-time spatial health surveillance: mapping the UK COVID-19 epidemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 104400
Author(s):  
Richard Fry ◽  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Helen R Stagg ◽  
Daniel A Thompson ◽  
Claudio Fronterre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Health Surveillance ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals “Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”

2014 ◽  
Vol 128 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 113-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Harding ◽  
M. Rivington ◽  
M. J. Mineter ◽  
S. F. B. Tett
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Climate Model Uncertainty

scholarly journals The Real-Time REF Review: A Pilot Study to Examine the Feasibility of a Longitudinal Evaluation of Perceptions and Attitudes Towards REF 2021

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netta Weinstein ◽  
James Wilsdon ◽  
Jennifer Chubb ◽  
Geoff Haddock
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Research Assessment ◽  
Research Assessment Exercise ◽  
Perceptions And Attitudes ◽  
Education Community ◽  
Stern Review ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The University ◽  
Uk Higher Education

The UK first introduced a national research assessment exercise in 1986, and methods of assessment continue to evolve. Following the 2016 Stern Review and further rounds of technical consultation, the UK higher education community is now preparing for the next Research Excellence Framework – REF 2021.Despite its importance in shaping UK research cultures, there is limited systematic and nuanced evidence about how academics across the sector view the REF, and which aspects are viewed favourably or unfavourably. The aims of this pilot study were twofold: first, it was designed to gather initial data to address this evidence gap; second, it was aimed at testing the feasibility of conducting a longitudinal study into academic and managerial attitudes towards the REF. We argue that further research to better understand the effects of the REF on research cultures, institutions, and individuals should be part of the evidence used to inform the development of future iterations of the exerciseThe Real Time REF Review Pilot Study was developed and delivered by a research team from Cardiff University and the University of Sheffield, in collaboration with Research England.

scholarly journals A quality improvement (QI) project on improving trainee confidence in conducting remote psychiatric consultations at Pennine Care National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust in the United Kingdom (UK)

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S209-S210
Author(s):  
Rachel Moir ◽  
Roshelle Ramkisson ◽  
Seri Abraham ◽  
Shevonne Matheiken
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Psychiatric Consultation ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Remote Consultation ◽  
Safe Patient Care ◽  
Pdsa Cycle ◽  
Real Time Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Remote Consultations

AimsWhen the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic hit the UK, clinicians within Pennine Care NHS Foundation Trust (a five-borough mental health trust) were faced with the challenge of rapidly switching to a novel way of assessing patients remotely.The idea for a QI project on trainees’ experience with remote consultations was conceived in April 2020. We present our February 2021 results here.We aimed to improve trainee confidence in conducting remote psychiatric assessments by at least 40%, to ensure effective and safe patient care during their 6 months placement.MethodOur discovery process included surveying trainees in April 2020 to explore experiences with remote psychiatric consultations, a literature search of current UK guidance and a local audit. The audit reviewed documentation of consent to remote consultations, with reference to standards as per NHS England remote consultation guidance. Key change ideas included publication of an article, ‘Remote consultations – top tips for clinical practitioners’, video-simulated remote consultations and a session on remote consultations in the trainee induction.In the first ‘plan-do-study-act’ (PDSA) cycle, we presented key findings from the article in a video presentation, which was sent trust-wide. We measured confidence in conducting remote assessments pre- and post-presentation via a feedback survey. Unfortunately, response rates were low and in the second PDSA cycle we targeted a smaller cohort of trainees at the August 2020 induction, although encountered similar difficulties. In the third PDSA cycle, we collected real-time data using an interactive app at the February 2021 trainee induction, and measured pre- and post- confidence following a presentation and a video-simulated remote consultation.Result2/34 respondents had accessed previous remote psychiatric consultation training and12/35 had some telepsychiatry experience. Pre-induction trainee confidence results revealed: extremely uncomfortable (16%), not confident (31%), neutral (47%), confident (6%) and very confident (0%) and post-induction confidence was 0%, 22%, 52%, 26% and 0%, respectively.ConclusionOur project started during the first peak of the pandemic, which may be a reason for initial limited response rates. Our results suggest that the remote psychiatric consultation trainee induction session has shown some improvement in trainee confidence; the ‘confident’ cohort improved from 6% to 26%.Our next steps include collecting similar real-time data, mid-rotation and uploading video-simulated remote consultations to the Trust Intranet. We plan to complete the local audit cycle. We also plan to incorporate patient experience (from an ongoing systematic review) to inform a potential triage process post-pandemic, choosing between face-to-face versus remote consultations.

scholarly journals Report of two unlinked cases of infant botulism in the UK in October 2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 58 (12) ◽  
pp. 1601-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathie A. Grant ◽  
Ijeoma Nwarfor ◽  
Obioma Mpamugo ◽  
Vina Mithani ◽  
Paula Lister ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Real Time Pcr ◽  
Clostridium Botulinum ◽  
Diagnostic Procedure ◽  
Causative Organism ◽  
Mouse Bioassay ◽  
Young Infants ◽  
First Case ◽  
Infant Botulism ◽  
The Uk

Infant botulism is a rare disease in the UK, with the first case being recognized in 1978 and only five subsequent cases being reported before 2007. This study reports two unlinked cases of infant botulism, caused by two distinct strains of Clostridium botulinum (toxin types A and B, respectively), that occurred within a single month in the south-east of England in October 2007. The use of real-time PCR to detect C. botulinum neurotoxin genes in clinical specimens to improve the diagnostic procedure and to follow carriage of the causative organism in the infant gut is described. The laboratory investigation of these two cases demonstrated that a combination of the mouse bioassay, real-time PCR assays and conventional microbiological culture can provide rapid confirmation of a clinical diagnosis and affect patient management. Both infants (aged 4 and 8 months) were previously healthy prior to the onset of symptoms, and in both cases, a diagnosis of infant botulism was delayed for at least 10 days after initial admission to hospital. Once diagnosed, one of the infants was the first in the UK to be treated with human-derived botulism immunoglobulin. Real-time PCR was used to demonstrate that C. botulinum was excreted in the infants' faeces for up to 68 and 81 days, respectively. Despite the infrequency of infant botulism in the UK, clinicians should be aware of this rare but serious condition and should seek microbiological advice when presented with young infants with compatible symptomologies.

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