Runoff Predictions in Ungauged Basins Using Sequence-to-Sequence Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 126975
Author(s):  
Hanlin Yin ◽  
Zilong Guo ◽  
Xiuwei Zhang ◽  
Jiaojiao Chen ◽  
Yanning Zhang
2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7017-7053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Bao ◽  
J. Liu ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
G. Fu ◽  
G. Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Equifinality is unavoidable when transferring model parameters from gauged catchments to ungauged catchments for predictions in ungauged basins (PUB). A framework for estimating the three baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, directly with soil and topography properties is presented. When the new parameters setting methodology is used, the number of parameters needing to be calibrated is reduced from six to three, that leads to a decrease of equifinality and uncertainty. This is validated by Monte Carlo simulations in 24 hydro-climatic catchments in China. Using the new parameters estimation approach, model parameters become more sensitive and the extent of parameters space will be smaller when a threshold of goodness-of-fit is given. That means the parameters uncertainty is reduced with the new parameters setting methodology. In addition, the uncertainty of model simulation is estimated by the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results indicate that the uncertainty of streamflow simulations, i.e., confidence interval, is lower with the new parameters estimation methodology compared to that used by original calibration methodology. The new baseflow parameters estimation framework could be applied in VIC model and other appropriate models for PUB.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 391-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Di Prinzio ◽  
A. Castellarin ◽  
E. Toth

Abstract. Objective criteria for catchment classification are identified by the scientific community among the key research topics for improving the interpretation and representation of the spatiotemporal variability of streamflow. A promising approach to catchment classification makes use of unsupervised neural networks (Self Organising Maps, SOM's), which organise input data through non-linear techniques depending on the intrinsic similarity of the data themselves. Our study considers ~300 Italian catchments scattered nationwide, for which several descriptors of the streamflow regime and geomorphoclimatic characteristics are available. We qualitatively and quantitatively compare in the context of PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) a reference classification, RC, with four alternative classifications, AC's. RC was identified by using indices of the streamflow regime as input to SOM, whereas AC's were identified on the basis of catchment descriptors that can be derived for ungauged basins. One AC directly adopts the available catchment descriptors as input to SOM. The remaining AC's are identified by applying SOM to two sets of derived variables obtained by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA, second AC) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA, third and fourth ACs) to the available catchment descriptors. First, we measure the similarity between each AC and RC. Second, we use AC's and RC to regionalize several streamflow indices and we compare AC's with RC in terms of accuracy of streamflow prediction. In particular, we perform an extensive cross-validation to quantify nationwide the accuracy of predictions in ungauged basins of mean annual runoff, mean annual flood, and flood quantiles associated with given exceedance probabilities. Results of the study show that CCA can significantly improve the effectiveness of SOM classifications for the PUB problem.


2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (12) ◽  
pp. 11344-11354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederik Kratzert ◽  
Daniel Klotz ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger ◽  
Alden K. Sampson ◽  
Sepp Hochreiter ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Strömqvist ◽  
Berit Arheimer ◽  
Joel Dahné ◽  
Chantal Donnelly ◽  
Göran Lindström

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 449-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Viglione ◽  
J. Parajka ◽  
M. Rogger ◽  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
G. Laaha ◽  
...  

Abstract. In a three-part paper we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. While Parajka et al. (2013) and Salinas et al. (2013) assess the regionalisation of hydrographs and hydrological extremes through a literature review, in this paper we assess prediction of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-Kriging, a geostatistical interpolation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff timeseries, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrograph. The predictive performance is assessed by the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that the geostatistical approach (Top-Kriging) generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model. The predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and all signatures, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows is the most difficult to capture followed by the low flows. The relative predictive performance of the signatures depends on the selected performance measures. It is therefore essential to report performance in a consistent way by more than one performance measure.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Janssen ◽  
Ali Ameli

<p>Expanding the scientific understanding of global hydrological processes is a key research area for hydrologists. Research in this area can allow hydrologists to make better predictions in ungauged basins and catchments under climate change scenarios. Though hydrological processes are largely understood at a laboratory-scale, catchment-scale processes are much more complex and unknown. Previous studies at the catchment-scale have shown catchment geology is largely irrelevant in determining components of streamflow. Laboratory-scale experiments, however, have revealed that this is unlikely. This contradiction indicates the current techniques for determining hydrological variable importance in the literature are insufficient. In this paper, we quantify the influence of the interaction amongst climatic, geological, and topographical features on a large set of hydrological signatures in snow-dominated regions across North America, using Stable Extrapolative Marginal Contribution Feature Importance. The preliminary results show that when we consider interaction effects among climatic and geophysical features, and remove the influence of correlation, geological features show considerable importance at the catchment scale. We contend that this study contributes to the scientific understanding of catchment-scale hydrological processes, especially in cold, ungauged basins.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2263-2279 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Viglione ◽  
J. Parajka ◽  
M. Rogger ◽  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
G. Laaha ◽  
...  

Abstract. This is the third of a three-part paper series through which we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. Whereas the two previous papers by Parajka et al. (2013) and Salinas et al. (2013) assess the regionalisation performance of hydrographs and hydrological extremes on the basis of a comprehensive literature review of thousands of case studies around the world, in this paper we jointly assess prediction performance of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent and rich dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-kriging, a geostatistical estimation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff time-series, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrographs. The predictive performance is assessed in terms of the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation (blind testing) mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that, in Austria, the predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and for most signatures, it tends to increase with elevation for the regionalised rainfall–runoff model, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows in ungauged basins is the most difficult to estimate followed by the low flows. It also turns out that in this data-rich study in Austria, the geostatistical approach (Top-kriging) generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model.


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