Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

2016 ◽  
Vol 447 ◽  
pp. 129-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.H. Barmak ◽  
C.O. Dorso ◽  
M. Otero
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Dengue Epidemic

scholarly journals Human mobility and time spent at destination: Impact on spatial epidemic spreading

2013 ◽  
Vol 338 ◽  
pp. 41-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Poletto ◽  
Michele Tizzoni ◽  
Vittoria Colizza
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Spatial Epidemic

Epidemics and Human Mobility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theo Geisel
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Traffic Networks ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
And Control

<p>The severity of infectious diseases and epidemics increases drastically, when pathogens start being transmitted between humans, as thereby they can dispose of human traffic networks for their spreading. This can transform an epidemic into a worldwide threatening pandemic, as the current COVID-19 crisis has shown. Traffic networks exist on multiple scales and the spreading of pathogens exhibits superdiffusive properties. This talk will emphasize and analyze the key role of human mobility for the modeling, forecast, and control of epidemic spreading. A major problem is posed by the limited availability of statistical data on human mobility. Various proxies are now utilized since we suggested dollar bills as proxies for human moblity.  Recent work on endemic diseases in populations open to migration will be discussed. </p>

scholarly journals Interplay between population density and mobility in determining the spread of epidemics in cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Surendra Hazarie ◽  
David Soriano-Paños ◽  
Alex Arenas ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes ◽  
Gourab Ghoshal
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Optimal Control Strategy ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Data Driven Approach

AbstractThe increasing agglomeration of people in dense urban areas coupled with the existence of efficient modes of transportation connecting such centers, make cities particularly vulnerable to the spread of epidemics. Here we develop a data-driven approach combines with a meta-population modeling to capture the interplay between population density, mobility and epidemic spreading. We study 163 cities, chosen from four different continents, and report a global trend where the epidemic risk induced by human mobility increases consistently in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our framework to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Based on this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.

scholarly journals Epidemic Overdispersion Strengthens the Effectiveness of Mobility Restrictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerrit Großmann ◽  
Michael Backenköhler ◽  
Verena Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Interaction Structure ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Spatial Branching Process

AbstractHuman mobility is the fuel of global pandemics. In this simulation study, we analyze how mobility restrictions mitigate epidemic processes and how this mitigation is influenced by the epidemic’s degree of dispersion.We find that (even imperfect) mobility restrictions are generally efficient in mitigating epidemic spreading. Notably, the effectiveness strongly depends on the dispersion of the offspring distribution associated with the epidemic. We also find that mobility restrictions are useful even when the pathogen is already prevalent in the whole population. However, also a delayed implementation is more efficient in the presence of overdispersion. Conclusively, this means that implementing green zones is easier for epidemics with overdispersed transmission dynamics (e.g., COVID-19). To study these relationships at an appropriate level of abstraction, we propose a spatial branching process model combining the flexibility of stochastic branching processes with an agent-based approach allowing a conceptualization of locality, saturation, and interaction structure.

scholarly journals Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Hackl ◽  
Thibaut Dubernet
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Spread Dynamics

Human mobility is a key element in the understanding of epidemic spreading. Thus, correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for studying large-scale spatial transmission of infectious diseases and improving epidemic control. In this study, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation (MATSim) is linked with a generic epidemic spread model to simulate the spread of communicable diseases in an urban environment. The use of an agent-based model allows reproduction of the real-world behavior of individuals’ daily path in an urban setting and allows the capture of interactions among them, in the form of a spatial-temporal social network. This model is used to study seasonal influenza outbreaks in the metropolitan area of Zurich, Switzerland. The observations of the agent-based models are compared with results from classical SIR models. The model presented is a prototype that can be used to analyze multiple scenarios in the case of a disease spread at an urban scale, considering variations of different model parameters settings. The results of this simulation can help to improve comprehension of the disease spread dynamics and to take better steps towards the prevention and control of an epidemic.

scholarly journals After the lockdown: simulating mobility, public health and economic recovery scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Spelta ◽  
Andrea Flori ◽  
Francesco Pierri ◽  
Giovanni Bonaccorsi ◽  
Fabio Pammolli
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Productive Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Spreading Disease

Abstract The spread of SARS-COV-2 has affected many economic and social systems. This paper aims at estimating the impact on regional productive systems in Italy of the interplay between the epidemic and the mobility restriction measures put in place to contain the contagion. We focus then on the economic consequences of alternative lockdown lifting schemes. We leverage a massive dataset of human mobility which describes daily movements of over four million individuals in Italy and we model the epidemic spreading through a metapopulation SIR model, which provides the fraction of infected individuals in each Italian district. To quantify economic backslashes this information is combined with socio-economic data. We then carry out a scenario analysis to model the transition to a post-lockdown phase and analyze the economic outcomes derived from the interplay between (a) the timing and intensity of the release of mobility restrictions and (b) the corresponding scenarios on the severity of virus transmission rates. Using a simple model for the spreading disease and parsimonious assumptions on the relationship between the infection and the associated economic backlashes, we show how different policy schemes tend to induce heterogeneous distributions of losses at the regional level depending on mobility restrictions. Our work shed lights on how recovery policies need to balance the interplay between mobility flows of disposable workers and the diffusion of contagion.

Syrian Crisis and Migration

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinar Yazgan ◽  
Deniz Eroglu Utku ◽  
Ibrahim Sirkeci
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

With the growing insurrections in Syria in 2011, an exodus in large numbers have emerged. The turmoil and violence have caused mass migration to destinations both within the region and beyond. The current "refugee crisis" has escalated sharply and its impact is widening from neighbouring countries toward Europe. Today, the Syrian crisis is the major cause for an increase in displacement and the resultant dire humanitarian situation in the region. Since the conflict shows no signs of abating in the near future, there is a constant increase in the number of Syrians fleeing their homes. However, questions on the future impact of the Syrian crisis on the scope and scale of this human mobility are still to be answered. As the impact of the Syrian crisis on host countries increases, so does the demand for the analyses of the needs for development and protection in these countries. In this special issue, we aim to bring together a number of studies examining and discussing human mobility in relation to the Syrian crisis.

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