Modelling spatiotemporal trends in range shifts of marine commercial fish species driven by climate change surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Vol 737 ◽  
pp. 140258
Author(s):  
Yugui Zhu ◽  
Shiyao Zheng ◽  
Gabriel Reygondeau ◽  
Zhixin Zhang ◽  
Jiansong Chu ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Bozkurt ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Roberto Rondanelli

<p>This study assesses the recent (1990-2015) and near future (2020-2045) climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. For the recent period, we make the use of available observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as regional climate model simulations. Given the different climate characteristics at each side of the mountain barrier, we principally assess the results considering the windward and leeward sides. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1990-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~ 50 km) for further comparisons. For the near future climate change evaluation, we principally use historical simulations and climate change projections (until 2050s, RCP85) performed with PWRF (forced with NCAR-CESM1) on the same domain configuration of the hindcast simulations. Recent observed trends show contrasts between summer and autumn. Annual warming (cooling) trend is notable on the windward (leeward) coasts of the peninsula. Unlike the reanalysis, numerical simulations indicate a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling at annual time-scale. These temperature changes are accompanied by a decreasing and increasing trend in sea ice on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. An increasing trend of precipitation is notable on the central and northern peninsula. High resolution climate change projections (PWRF-15, RCP85) indicate that the recent warming trend on the windward coasts tends to continue in the near future (2020-2045) and the projections exhibit an increase in temperature by ~ 1.5°C and 0.5°C on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. In the same period, the projections show an increase in precipitation over the peninsula (5% to 10%). The more notable warming projected on the windward side causes more increases in surface melting (~ +20% to +80%) and more sea ice loss (-4% to -20%) on this side. Results show that the windward coasts of central and northern Antarctic Peninsula can be considered as "hotspots" with notable increases in temperature, surface melting and sea ice loss.</p>


2008 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
James McClintock ◽  
Hugh Ducklow ◽  
William Fraser

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 3227-3244
Author(s):  
Ulrike Falk ◽  
Adrián Silva-Busso

Abstract. There are only a small number of recent publications discussing glacial runoff in Antarctica, and even fewer of them deal with the groundwater flow discharge. This paper focuses on the groundwater flow aspects and is based on a detailed study performed on a small hydrological catchment, informally called Potter basin, located on King George Island (KGI; Isla 25 de Mayo), South Shetland Islands, at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. The basin is representative for the rugged coastline of the northern Antarctic Peninsula and is discussed as a case study for the possible future evolution of similar basins further to the south. A conceptual hydrogeological model has been defined using vertical electrical soundings (VESs), geological and hydrogeological surveying methods, geomorphological interpretation based on satellite imagery, permeability tests, piezometric level measurements, meteorological, geocryological and glaciological data sets. The transmissivities of the fluvial talik aquifer and suprapermafrost aquifer range from 162.0 to 2719.9×10-5 m2 s−1 and in basaltic fissured aquifers from 3.47 to 5.79×10-5 m2 s−1. The transmissivities found in the active layer of hummocky moraines amount to 75.23×10-5 m2 s−1 and to 163.0×10-5 m2 s−1 in the sea deposits, and in the fluvioglacial deposits, they were observed between 902.8 and 2662.0×10-5 m2 d−1. Finally, the groundwater flow discharge was assessed to 0.47 m3 s−1 (during the austral summer months of January and February), and the total groundwater storage was estimated to 560×103 m3. The Antarctic Peninsula region has experienced drastic climatological changes within the past five decades. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, a further warming of the polar regions can be expected as polar amplification of our changing climate. Although the basin in consideration is small and results are valid only during austral summers with surface air temperatures above the freezing point, it serves as model study that can be regarded as representative for the western coastline of the Antarctic Peninsula further south under expected future warming, with surface air temperatures periodically surpassing freezing point. This data can be used to adjust glacial mass balance assessments in the region and to improve the understanding of coastal sea water processes, and their effects on the marine biota, as a consequence of the global climate change.


2006 ◽  
Vol 362 (1477) ◽  
pp. 149-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Clarke ◽  
Eugene J Murphy ◽  
Michael P Meredith ◽  
John C King ◽  
Lloyd S Peck ◽  
...  

The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading.


Polar Biology ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 607-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias Hüne ◽  
Claudio González-Wevar ◽  
Elie Poulin ◽  
Andrés Mansilla ◽  
Daniel A. Fernández ◽  
...  

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Olech

AbstractOver the last couple of years the Antarctic Peninsula region has been one of the fastest warming regions on the Earth. Rapidly proceeding deglaciation uncovers new areas for colonisation and formation of Antarctic tundra communities. The most evident dynamics, i.e. changes in both biodiversity and structure of tundra communities, are observed in the forefields of retreating glaciers. This paper presents examples of changes in biodiversity and in the direction and rate of succession changes taking place due to climate warming compounded by synanthropization in the maritime Antarctic


2016 ◽  
Vol 75 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karina L. Lecomte ◽  
Paula A. Vignoni ◽  
Francisco E. Córdoba ◽  
Marcos A. E. Chaparro ◽  
Mauro A. E. Chaparro ◽  
...  

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