scholarly journals Extreme avalanche cycles: Return levels and probability distributions depending on snow and meteorological conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 100344
Author(s):  
Guillaume Evin ◽  
Pascal Dkengne Sielenou ◽  
Nicolas Eckert ◽  
Philippe Naveau ◽  
Pascal Hagenmuller ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandra Rupa Rajulapati ◽  
Simon Michael Papalexiou ◽  
Martyn P Clark ◽  
Saman Razavi ◽  
Guoqiang Tang ◽  
...  

<p>Assessing extreme precipitation events is of high importance to hydrological risk assessment, decision making, and adaptation strategies. Global gridded precipitation products, constructed by combining various data sources such as precipitation gauge observations, atmospheric reanalyses and satellite estimates, can be used to estimate extreme precipitation events. Although these global precipitation products are widely used, there has been limited work to examine how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation. In this work, the five most widely used global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to GHCN-daily surface observations. The spatial variability of extreme precipitation events and the discrepancy amongst datasets in predicting precipitation return levels (such as 100- and 1000-year) were evaluated for the time period 1979-2017.  The behaviour of extremes, that is the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation, was quantified using indices of the heaviness of the upper tail of the probability distribution. Two parameterizations of the upper tail, the power and stretched-exponential, were used to reveal the probabilistic behaviour of extremes. The analysis shows strong spatial variability in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation extremes as estimated from the upper tails of the probability distributions. This spatial variability is similar to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The predicted 100- and 1000-year return levels differ substantially amongst the gridded products, and the level of discrepancy varies regionally, with large differences in Africa and South America and small differences in North America and Europe. The results from this work reveal the shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes. The work shows that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (12) ◽  
pp. 2361-2375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph D. Lorenz ◽  
Brian K. Jackson ◽  
Jason W. Barnes ◽  
Joseph N. Spitale ◽  
Jani Radebaugh ◽  
...  

AbstractThree decades of weather records at meteorological stations near Death Valley National Park are analyzed in an attempt to gauge the frequency of conditions that might form and erase the famous trails of wind-blown rocks in the mud of Racetrack Playa. Trail formation requires the playa to be wet, followed by strong winds and/or freezing conditions. Weather records are compared with a limited set of meteorological data that were acquired in situ at the playa over three winters and that indicate freezing on 50, 29, and 15 nights during the winters of 2007/08–09/10, respectively, as well as with the hydrological condition of the playa as determined by time-lapse cameras that observed flooding over ~1, ~5, and ~40 days, respectively, during those winters. Measurements at the nearby Panamint and Hunter Mountain stations are found to be a useful, if imperfect (~50%), indicator of Racetrack Playa conditions and give some features of Racetrack Playa’s micrometeorological behavior. Wind speed probability distributions suggest that winds that are fast enough to cause unassisted rock motion are rare and therefore that freezing of water on the playa has a role in a significant fraction of movement events.


Author(s):  
Travis B. Glick ◽  
Miguel A. Figliozzi ◽  
Avinash Unnikrishnan

Drones are increasingly being utilized to deliver medical supplies, and the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated this trend. Drones arrive quickly by taking more direct paths and avoiding ground-based obstructions. However, drones are not completely reliable and may also experience failures and delays. For consumer products, delivery delays are an inconvenience, but for some medical supplies, delays may be fatal. This research focused on the drone reliability of one particular type of supply and event: automatic defibrillators for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. A modeling framework was developed to analyze drone delivery reliability with stochastic demands and meteorological conditions. Using probability distributions based on real data from Portland, OR, this research quantified the failure rates as a function of drone range and meteorological conditions that included temperature, precipitation, and wind. Tradeoffs among drone reliability, fleet size, population size, and meteorological conditions were analyzed.


2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santosh K. Aryal ◽  
Bryson C. Bates ◽  
Edward P. Campbell ◽  
Yun Li ◽  
Mark J. Palmer ◽  
...  

Abstract A hierarchical spatial model for daily rainfall extremes that characterizes their temporal variation due to interannual climatic forcing as well as their spatial pattern is proposed. The model treats the parameters of at-site probability distributions for rainfall extremes as “data” that are likely to be spatially correlated and driven by atmospheric forcing. The method is applied to daily rainfall extremes for summer and winter half years over the Swan–Avon River basin in Western Australia. Two techniques for the characterization of at-site extremes—peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis and the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution—and three climatic drivers—the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as measured by the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Hemisphere annular mode as measured by an Antarctic Oscillation index (AOI), and solar irradiance (SI)—were considered. The POT analysis of at-site extremes revealed that at-site thresholds lacked spatial coherence, making it difficult to determine a smooth spatial surface for the threshold parameter. In contrast, the GEV-based analysis indicated smooth spatial patterns in daily rainfall extremes that are consistent with the predominant orientation of storm tracks over the study area and the presence of a coastal escarpment near the western edge of the basin. It also indicated a linkage between temporal trends in daily rainfall extremes and those of the SOI and AOI. By applying the spatial models to winter and summer extreme rainfalls separately, an apparent increasing trend in return levels of summer rainfall to the northwest and decreasing trends in return levels of winter rainfall to the southwest of the region are found.


1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 197-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Steel

AbstractWhilst lithopanspermia depends upon massive impacts occurring at a speed above some limit, the intact delivery of organic chemicals or other volatiles to a planet requires the impact speed to be below some other limit such that a significant fraction of that material escapes destruction. Thus the two opposite ends of the impact speed distributions are the regions of interest in the bioastronomical context, whereas much modelling work on impacts delivers, or makes use of, only the mean speed. Here the probability distributions of impact speeds upon Mars are calculated for (i) the orbital distribution of known asteroids; and (ii) the expected distribution of near-parabolic cometary orbits. It is found that cometary impacts are far more likely to eject rocks from Mars (over 99 percent of the cometary impacts are at speeds above 20 km/sec, but at most 5 percent of the asteroidal impacts); paradoxically, the objects impacting at speeds low enough to make organic/volatile survival possible (the asteroids) are those which are depleted in such species.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 10501-1-10501-9
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Tyler

Abstract For the visual world in which we operate, the core issue is to conceptualize how its three-dimensional structure is encoded through the neural computation of multiple depth cues and their integration to a unitary depth structure. One approach to this issue is the full Bayesian model of scene understanding, but this is shown to require selection from the implausibly large number of possible scenes. An alternative approach is to propagate the implied depth structure solution for the scene through the “belief propagation” algorithm on general probability distributions. However, a more efficient model of local slant propagation is developed as an alternative.The overall depth percept must be derived from the combination of all available depth cues, but a simple linear summation rule across, say, a dozen different depth cues, would massively overestimate the perceived depth in the scene in cases where each cue alone provides a close-to-veridical depth estimate. On the other hand, a Bayesian averaging or “modified weak fusion” model for depth cue combination does not provide for the observed enhancement of perceived depth from weak depth cues. Thus, the current models do not account for the empirical properties of perceived depth from multiple depth cues.The present analysis shows that these problems can be addressed by an asymptotic, or hyperbolic Minkowski, approach to cue combination. With appropriate parameters, this first-order rule gives strong summation for a few depth cues, but the effect of an increasing number of cues beyond that remains too weak to account for the available degree of perceived depth magnitude. Finally, an accelerated asymptotic rule is proposed to match the empirical strength of perceived depth as measured, with appropriate behavior for any number of depth cues.


Author(s):  
A.I. Belenkov ◽  
◽  
S.V. Zhelezova ◽  
D.V. Bereza

The article considers the issues of the influence of the main tillage on the yield of crops of grain-tilled crop rotation: vetch-oat mixture - winter wheat - potatoes - barley. It was found that in addition to the reception of soil cultivation, the productivity of agrocenoses was also influenced by meteorological conditions.


Author(s):  
O. A. Zadorozhna ◽  
T. P. Shyianova ◽  
M.Yu. Skorokhodov

Seed longevity of 76 spring barley gene pool samples (Hordeum vulgare L. subsp. distichon, convar. distichon: 56 nutans Schubl., two deficience (Steud.) Koern., two erectum Rode ex Shuebl., two medicum Koern.; convar. nudum (L.) A.Trof.: one nudum L. та subsp. vulgare: convar. vulgare: nine pallidum Ser., three rikotense Regel.; convar. coeleste (L.) A.Trof.: one coeleste (L.) A.Trof.) from 26 countries, 11 years and four places of reproduction was analyzed. Seeds with 5–8% moisture content were stored in chamber with unregulated and 4oC temperature. The possibility of seed storage under these conditions for at least 10 years without significant changes in germination has been established. The importance of meteorological conditions in the formation and ripening of seeds for their longevity is confirmed. The relationship between the decrease of barley seeds longevity and storage conditions, amount of rainfall, temperature regime during the growing season of plants is discussed.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document