Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana

Reducing community vulnerability to flooding is increasingly important given predicted intensive flood events in many parts of the world. We built a community vulnerability model to explore the effectiveness of a range of proactive and reactive adaptations to reduce community vulnerability to flood. The model consists of floods, victims, housings, responses, savings, expenditure and income sub models. We explore the robustness of adaptations under current conditions and under a range of future climate change scenarios. We present results of this model for a case study of Centini Village in Lamongan Municipality, Indonesia, which is highly vulnerable to the impacts of annual small-scale and infrequent extreme floods. We compare 11 proactive adaptations using indicators of victims, damage/losses and recovery process to reflect the level of vulnerability. We find that reforestation and flood infrastructure redevelopment are the most effective proactive adaptations for minimising vulnerability to flood under current condition. Under climate change scenario, the floods are predicted to increase 17% on the average and 5% on the maximum measurements. The increasing floods result reforestation is the only effective adaptations in the future under climate change scenario.

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Can Clearcutting Reset Successional Trajectories in Upland Oak–Hickory Forests? A Case Study from Mid-Missouri

Journal of Forestry ◽

10.1093/jofore/fvz041 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 117 (5) ◽

pp. 435-442

Author(s):

Benjamin O Knapp ◽

Samantha E Anderson ◽

Patrick J Curtin ◽

Casey Ghilardi ◽

Robert G Rives

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Tree Species ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Oak Regeneration ◽

Species Dominance ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Successional Trajectory ◽

Species Groups ◽

Management Challenge

Abstract Securing oak regeneration is a common management challenge in the central and eastern United States. We quantified the abundance of tree species groups in clearcuts in mid-Missouri more than 30 years following harvest to determine differences in species dominance based on aspect (exposed, protected, or ridge sites). Each tree was classified as “dominant” or “suppressed” based on its relative contribution to cumulative stand stocking, following concepts of the tree–area relation. Although maples or understory species were the most abundant across all sites, oaks and hickories contributed to more than 60 percent of the dominant stems on the exposed sites. In contrast, oaks and hickories made up less than 25 percent of the dominant stems on protected and ridge sites. Results indicate that clearcutting reset the successional trajectory, from a transition to maple dominance to maintaining oak–hickory dominance, on exposed sites but not on ridge or protected sites.

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How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.13925 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 1150-1163 ◽

Cited By ~ 145

Author(s):

Marcin K. Dyderski ◽

Sonia Paź ◽

Lee E. Frelich ◽

Andrzej M. Jagodziński

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Species Distributions ◽

Forest Tree ◽

Forest Tree Species ◽

European Forest ◽

Tree Species Distributions

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Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10110989 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 989 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Louis R. Iverson ◽

Anantha M. Prasad ◽

Matthew P. Peters ◽

Stephen N. Matthews

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Tree Species ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Analysis Data ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Data Set ◽

The Face ◽

Suitable Habitats

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change.

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Effect of Climate Change in the Stream Flow, Crop Yields and NP Levels at White Oak Bayou Watershed Using SWAT simulation: A Case Study

Asian Journal of Geographical Research ◽

10.9734/ajgr/2019/v2i230083 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Alminda Magbalot-Fernandez ◽

Qianwen He ◽

Frank Molkenthin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Soil Survey ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Change Scenario ◽

White Oak ◽

Average Plant ◽

National Cooperative

Projected changes in temperature due to global climate change may have serious impacts on hydrologic processes, water resources availability, irrigation water demand, and thereby affecting the agricultural production and productivity. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources is of utmost importance for developing possible adaptation strategies. The White Oak Bayou, one of the several waterways that give Houston, Texas, United States its popular nickname "The Bayou City" was selected in this case study. SWAT model is process based and can simulate the hydrological cycle, crop yield, soil erosion and nutrient transport. It is operated with an interface in ArcView GIS using raster or vector datasets including the digital elevation model (DEM), soil properties, vegetation, LULC, and meteorological observations observed which were derived from the Consortium for Geospatial Information, National Cooperative Soil Survey, National Land Cover Database 2006, NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and USGS website in 2005-2008. The climate change scenario was based on the projected increase in temperature by the IPCC by 2100. This case study showed a decrease in streamflow from observed actual scenario (2005-2008) to projected increase of 4°C temperature in future climate change scenario by 2100. The evapotranspiration increased but there was a decrease in surface runoff and percolation. Moreover, there were greater average plant biomass and more average plant yields. Hence, the nitrogen and phosphorus uptake and removed in yield increased. Thus, the total nitrogen decreased while the total phosphorus is zero indicating loss of the Phosphorus content in the soil. Yet, this case study needs to be validated and calibrated with actual data to support the projected outcome.

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