Declines in riparian willow (Salix spp.) communities in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA , coincident with a large increase in elk (Cervus elaphus L.) populations, has raised concerns about the future of willow communities. To identify possible constraints on willow establishment in two heavily browsed riparian areas, in 2000 and 2001, we examined seed dispersal phenology, germinability, and the spatial patterns of aerial seed rain, quantified the effects of soil surface relief, texture, and moisture on seed entrapment, and examined natural patterns of seedling emergence in relation to seed source proximity. All species dispersed seeds following peak streamflow and exhibited high germination rates (85%99%). Total seed rain differed between years, although broad spatial patterns were similar. Seed rain density as high as 7650 seeds/m2 occurred in reference areas but declined by over two orders of magnitude in heavily disturbed areas and by >90% within 200 m of seed sources. Seed entrapment rates varied significantly with soil moisture and surface relief, but not with texture, and were low (<30%) regardless of treatment. Seedling density declined with distance from seed sources, suggesting that propagule availability may limit initial seedling establishment. Without a change in elk population or behavior, or intervention by park managers, degradation of willow communities will likely continue.Key words: Salix, riparian, dispersal, ungulates, elk.