Recent volcanic eruptions in the Afar rift, northeastern Africa, and implications for volcanic risk management in the region

Author(s):  
Gezahegn Yirgu ◽  
David J. Ferguson ◽  
Talfan D. Barnie ◽  
Clive Oppenheimer
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi ◽  
Matthieu Kervyn ◽  
François Muhashy Habiyaremye ◽  
François Kervyn ◽  
Caroline Michellier

<p>The city of Goma is located in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo. With around one million inhabitants, it is built on lava flows, 15 km south of the active Nyiragongo volcano. Historically, the town was affected twice by eruptions, in 1977 and 2002 and severe destructions were reported. At that time, no volcanic risk preparedness and management tools had been implemented, and communication during and after the eruption was not consistent enough to avoid panic and human casualties. Without an appropriate and accurate risk communication, people may adopt a behavior which can put them at risk, by increasing their vulnerability. Nineteen years after the last disaster, risk management still have to develop an effective risk preparedness strategy and integrate risk awareness raising tools. The aim of this ongoing doctoral research is the assessment of risk culture, building upon a risk perception assessment and identification of risk reduction measures to be enhanced.</p><p>A survey of 2224 adults among the general population of Goma was conducted in eight representative neighborhoods in order to assess the risk perception, the experience of the risk communication as well as the risk preparedness of inhabitants. We here present a first analysis of the results regarding the risk communication challenges. Goma is a dynamic town with a young population (80% are under 45 years old), living in relatively poor and large family (51% of households have 4-7 members and 31% 8-11 members; 57% of household have an income between 0-250$), with rather low education (47% is secondary level and 34% graduated). Language is one of the volcanic risk communication challenges in Goma: apart from French as the official language, Swahili as local, and English imposed by the large humanitarian sector, there are many dialects. Moreover, most communication tools are informal (social networks, friends and relatives…) and inhabitants mostly look for information on religion (22%), health (15%) and politics (12%), but not so much about risk reduction. Local radio (24%), television (14,5%) and social networks (13%) are the most preferred information channels. The city of Goma is also very dynamic: with a high migration rate, the population is growing and renewing itself regularly, to the point that risk communication must take into account the newcomers in order to be efficient. Additionally, our survey shows that experience of disasters and trust in decision-makers also provide a basis for effective risk communication.</p><p>By presenting, as examples, the communication chain during the 2002 Nyiragongo eruption, as well as a more recent example of miscommunication due to the publication, in the general public press, of a scientific article with significant uncertainties in eruption forecast modelling (leading to misinterpretation by non-expert readers), we will demonstrate that the cascading reactions may have consequences putting risk decision-makers and scientists in a difficult position, by provoking a feeling of mistrust and doubt among the population. Based on the Goma case study, we will show that risk communication in the global south is a major risk management challenge with complex issues.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe De Natale ◽  
Claudia Troise ◽  
Renato Somma

Abstract. The Naples (Southern Italy) area has the highest volcanic risk in the World, due to the coexistence of three highly explosive volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia) with extremely dense urbanisation. More than three millions people live to within twenty kilometres from a possible eruptive vent. Mitigating such an extreme risk is made difficult because volcanic eruptions forecast is today an empirical procedure with very uncertain outcome. This paper starts recalling the state of the art of eruption forecast, and then describes the main hazards in the Neapolitan area, shortly presenting the activity and present state of its volcanoes. Then, it proceeds to suggest the most effective procedures to mitigate the extreme volcanic and associated risks. The problem is afforded in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban issues. The proposed mitigation actions are then compared with the existing emergency plans, developed by Italian Civil Protection, by highlighting their numerous, very evident problems. Our study, besides regarding the most complex and extreme situation of volcanic risk in the World, gives guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 747-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Marrero ◽  
A. García ◽  
A. Llinares ◽  
J. A. Rodríguez-Losada ◽  
R. Ortiz

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant). Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM). The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc.) and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.


Author(s):  
Vlado Radić ◽  
◽  
Nikola Radić ◽  

Even before the current pandemic, humanity was faced with numerous situations that had serious global consequences. In addition to wars, nuclear radiation, cataclysmic earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, epidemics of SARS, swine flu, MERS, HIV, Ebola, Zika virus, they led to the cognition that humanity is powerless in the face of such disasters. Regardless of the achievements and development of science and technology, extensive and long-lasting medical research, "invisible" enemies have taken millions of human lives. People have always been faced with a risk, which comes from nature, human activities, or the mistakes of the man himself. Risk is a multidimensional, multifaceted and complex phenomenon, present on a daily basis in human life. Risk management in a state of the pandemic is primarily aimed at preserving the health and lives of the entire population, and measures applied to prevent a pandemic from taking countless human lives have no alternative.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-14
Author(s):  
Amran Nur ◽  
Veronica Margareth Dampung

Abstract: Indonesia has been declared as one of the most disaster-prone countries according to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Indonesia ranks 6th among countries prone to disasters. Indonesia is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and others as well as non-natural disasters such as floods, infectious diseases, forest fires, and others, as well as social disasters in the form of social conflicts in various regions. One of the concepts of disaster management is disaster risk management, At this stage, efforts should be made if a catastrophic event occurs, damage and losses with a large enough scale of impact can be avoided and minimized by mitigating education to the community. Because the location of this village is on the seashore and has a watershed that could threaten the safety of the population, therefore a health prevention socialization will be carried out if at any time an unwanted natural disaster occurs. Keywords: natural disasters, Barru Districts, disaster risk, countermeasures.


Author(s):  
David Mortimer ◽  
Sharon T. Mortimer
Keyword(s):  

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