The geography of climate migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Hendrik Scheewel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Migration ◽  
First Century ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
Almost All

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

Climate change, ‘Anthropocene unburials’ and agency on a thawing planet

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-393
Author(s):  
Dawn Keetley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Global Capitalism ◽  
First Century ◽  
Television Series ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Nuclear Testing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Twenty First Century

Three narratives from different historical moments - the US film The Beast from 20,000 Fathoms (1953), the US/Canadian film The Thaw (2009) and the first season of the British television series Fortitude (2015) - disclose shifts in the imagining of prehistoric creatures emerging from thawing ice, and all three thus intervene in evolving discourses surrounding climate change, nature and agency (both human and nonhuman). Beast was released at what many scientists have declared the very beginning of the ‘Anthropocene’ - that geological era marked by humans as primary shapers of planetary life. An iconic film of the Atomic Age, Beast features a thawed creature from Earth’s prehistory, and the fault-lines are sharply drawn between it and the humans who unknowingly unleashed it. Although the consequences of nuclear testing (along with the notion of the ‘Anthropocene’) were decades in the future, Beast imagines those consequences with startling and destructive clarity. In the twenty-first century, the long-term effects of nuclear energy, and industrial global capitalism more generally, have become strikingly evident. The thawed creatures of both Fortitude and The Thaw have neither the visibility nor the separateness of the ‘Beast’ from 1953, however. Tracing increasingly entangled notions of existence, culpability and responsibility in the Anthropocene era, these twenty-first-century creatures incubate within human hosts, becoming interwoven with the human, and thus complicate familiar notions of agency.

scholarly journals Distribution and Abundance of Double-crested Cormorants Nesting in the Interior of California, 2009–2012

Western Birds ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 270-292
Author(s):  
W. David Shuford ◽  
Kathy C. Molina ◽  
John P. Kelly ◽  
T. Emiko Condeso ◽  
Daniel S. Cooper ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sonoran Desert ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
The State ◽  
Salton Sea ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Large Fluctuations

As part of an 11-state inventory, we censused the Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in the interior of California from 2009 to 2012, using a combination of aerial, ground, and boat surveys. An estimated 8791 pairs breeding in the interior of the state in 2009–2012 exceeded the 7170 pairs estimated in 1998–1999. In both periods, cormorants were breeding in 9 of 11 ecoregions, but three-fourths were at one site—Mullet Island at the Salton Sea in the Sonoran Desert ecoregion (abandoned in 2014). The ecoregions with the next highest proportions were the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and Modoc Plateau. The apparent increase in numbers and colony sites since 1999—consistent with the pattern through much of western North America—reflects the (short-lived) increase in numbers at the Salton Sea, an increasing number of colonies and breeding pairs in the Central Valley, and slightly better coverage on the recent surveys. Because of practical survey constraints and limited data to date, evidence of change in numbers of Doublecrested Cormorants breeding in the interior of California between 1998–1999 and 2009–2012 is inconclusive. Plans for monitoring will need to take into account the effects of substantial annual variation in numbers, which may be associated with large fluctuations in cormorants’ prey base, short-term cycles of drought and flood, shifts of nesting cormorants into or out of the interior of California, and the expectation of greater environmental fluctuations with continuing climate change. The factors most likely to limit the number of cormorants breeding in the interior of the state are habitat loss or alteration (particularly from reallocation of water for human needs), disease, human disturbance, and the long-term effects of climate change.

Physiological and morphological effects of climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 120-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew E. McKechnie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Heat Events

The direct impacts of higher temperatures on birds are manifested over timescales ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades. Over short timescales, acute exposure to high temperatures can lead to hyperthermia or dehydration, which among arid-zone species occasionally causes catastrophic mortality events. Over intermediate timescales of days to weeks, high temperatures can have chronic sub-lethal effects via body mass loss or reduced nestling growth rates, negatively affecting sev eral fitness components. Long-term effects of warming manifested over years to decades involve declining body mass or changes in appendage size. Key directions for future research include elucidating the role of phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic processes in avian adaptation to climate change, examining the role of stress pathways in mediating responses to heat events, and understanding the consequences of higher temperatures for species that traverse hot regions while migrating.

scholarly journals A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 5954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Sanz-Lazaro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Ecological Effects ◽  
Rocky Shores ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Experimental Approaches ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Climate Events

Climate change is modifying disturbance regimes, affecting the severity and occurrence of extreme events. Current experiments investigating extreme events have a large diversity of experimental approaches and key aspects such as the interaction with other disturbances, the timing, and long-term effects are not usually incorporated in a standardized way. This lack of comparability among studies limits advances in this field of research. This study presents a framework that is comprised of two experimental approaches designed to test expected changes on disturbance regime due to climate change. These approaches test the effects of disturbances becoming more clustered and more extreme. They use common descriptor variables regardless of the type of disturbance and ecosystem. This framework is completed with a compilation of procedures that increase the realism of experiments in the aforementioned key aspects. The proposed framework favours comparability among studies and increases our understanding of extreme events. Examples to implement this framework are given using rocky shores as a case study. Far from being perfect, the purpose of this framework is to act as a starting point that triggers the comparability and refinement of these types of experiments needed to advance our understanding of the ecological effects of extreme events.

WHAT IF PAUL HAD TRAVELLED EAST RATHER THAN WEST?

2000 ◽  
Vol 8 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 171-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Bauckham
Keyword(s):  
Roman Empire ◽  
First Century ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Trade Routes ◽  
Early Christian ◽  
Christian Communities ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Geographical Scope ◽  
North And South

AbstractFor first-century Jews the eastern disapora was at least as important as the western. When Paul returned from Arabia (Nabatea) to Damascus, his intention was to travel east from Damascus to Mesopotamia, where the synagogue communities, descendants of the original exiles of both northern and southern tribes of Israel, would have been his starting point for mission to the Gentiles of the area. But when he escaped arrest by the Nabatean ethnarc, Nabatean control of the trade routes south and east of Damascus left him no choice but to travel to Jerusalem, where he re-thought the geographical scope of his mission. Had Paul travelled east, the Christian communities of both north and south Mesopotamia might have flourished already in the first century and Paul's writings might have had more influence on Syriac theology. Considering how Christianity in the Roman Empire would have developed without Paul entails rejecting such exaggerated views of Paul's significance as that Paul invented Christianity or that without Paul Christianity would have remained a Jewish sect. The Gentile mission began without Paul and took place in areas, such as Rome and Egypt, which were not evangelized by Paul. Without Paul much would have been different about the way the early Christian movement would have spread across the Roman Empire, but it would still have spread, with much the same long-term effects.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Epidemics of Powdery Mildew in Winter Wheat in China

Plant Disease ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 101 (10) ◽  
pp. 1753-1760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuli Tang ◽  
Xueren Cao ◽  
Xiangming Xu ◽  
Yuying Jiang ◽  
Yong Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Powdery Mildew ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Disease Epidemics

Powdery mildew is a highly destructive winter wheat pathogen in China. Since the causative agent is sensitive to changing weather conditions, we analyzed climatic records from regions with previous wheat powdery mildew epidemics (1970 to 2012) and investigated the long-term effects of climate change on the percent acreage (PA) of the disease. Then, using PA and the pathogen’s temperature requirements, we constructed a multiregression model to predict changes in epidemics during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Mean monthly air temperature increased from 1970 to 2012, whereas hours of sunshine and relative humidity decreased (P < 0.001). Year-to-year temperature changes were negatively associated with those of PA during oversummering and late spring periods of disease epidemics, whereas positive relationships were noted for other periods, and year-to-year changes in relative humidity were correlated with PA changes in the early spring period of disease epidemics (P < 0.001). Our models also predicted that PA would increase less under RCP2.6 (14.43%) than under RCP4.5 (14.51%) by the 2020s but would be higher by the 2050s and 2080s and would increase least under RCP8.5 (14.37% by the 2020s). Powdery mildew will, thus, pose an even greater threat to China’s winter wheat production in the future.

Assessment of recent environmental changes in New Brunswick (Canada) lakes based on paleolimnological shifts in diatom species assemblages

2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Anne Harris ◽  
Brian F. Cumming ◽  
John P. Smol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Species Assemblages ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Diatom Species ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Recent Climate

New Brunswick lakes are subjected to multiple environmental stressors, such as atmospheric acid deposition and climate change. In the absence of long-term environmental data, the impacts of these stressors are not well understood. Long-term effects of environmental change on diatom species assemblages were assessed in the sediments of 16 New Brunswick lakes using paleolimnological approaches. A regional trend of increasing Cyclotella stelligera Cleve & Gunrow and decreasing Aulacoseira species complex was recorded in most lakes. Detailed paleolimnological analyses of Wolfe, Cundy, and West Long lakes revealed varying degrees of species change, with assemblage shifts beginning ca. 1900 CE (common era). These species trends are not consistent with acidification. However, linear regression of mean July temperature with time for two New Brunswick historical instrumental temperature records revealed statistically significant warming over the past century. The shift from heavily silicified tychoplanktonic Aulacoseira species to small planktonic diatom species, such as C. stelligera, is consistent with paleolimnological inferences of warming trends recorded in several other lake regions of the Northern Hemisphere. These assemblage shifts are likely due to recent climate change and may be mediated by reduced ice cover and (or) increased thermal stability (decreased lake mixing) during the open water period.

Global climate change in large European rivers: long-term effects on macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1085-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathieu Floury ◽  
Philippe Usseglio-Polatera ◽  
Martial Ferreol ◽  
Cecile Delattre ◽  
Yves Souchon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Confounding Factors ◽  
Macroinvertebrate Communities ◽  
Long Term Effects
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