Les députés et les partis politiques sortants profitent-ils d'un avantage électoral ? Une analyse des résultats électoraux au Québec

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 723-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariane Blais-Lacombe ◽  
Marc André Bodet
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Small Difference ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opposition Parties

AbstractUsing official electoral results from provincial elections since 1973, we evaluate the incumbency effect in Quebec by measuring the impact of a combination of characteristics related to candidates and political parties. We verify whether the presence of an incumbent candidate is necessary to ensure that the incumbent party benefits from an electoral advantage. We also compare the magnitude of the incumbency effect between governing and opposition parties. Making use of parametric multivariate statistical tools, we conclude that political parties benefit from an electoral advantage in Quebec. Except for ministers who make a small difference, simple Members of the National Assembly (MNAs) do not improve their electoral performance, while in some cases new candidates with incumbent parties perform better.

Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332110477
Author(s):  
Deniz Aksoy ◽  
David Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Impact

Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

Financing political parties in Africa: the case of Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-317
Author(s):  
Chipo Dendere
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
State Funding ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Political Finance ◽  
Poor Access ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opposition Parties

AbstractWhat is the impact of access to political party finance – money that parties use to fund their campaign activities – on politics in Africa? While multiparty elections have become more regular in the developing world, many opposition parties are still failing to win elections. This paper argues that poor access to political finance weakens democratic consolidation and negatively impacts the participation of less-resourced candidates who are unable to self-fund. As a result, opposition parties are forced to rely on weak promises of aid from international donors and unreliable state funding. This in-depth analysis of political finance, based on extensive interviews with politicians and government officials in Zimbabwe, political documents, news reports and a review of court cases, reveals that uneven financing has weakened opposition parties and serves as an extra advantage for incumbents.

Which Parties Can Lead Opinion? Experimental Evidence on Partisan Cue Taking in Multiparty Democracies

2012 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1485-1517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ted Brader ◽  
Joshua A. Tucker ◽  
Dominik Duell
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Ideological Position ◽  
Ideological Clarity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opposition Parties

Political parties not only aggregate the policy preferences of their supporters, but also have the ability to shape those preferences. Experimental evidence demonstrates that, when parties stake out positions on policy issues, partisans become more likely to adopt these positions, whether out of blind loyalty or because they infer that party endorsements signal options consistent with their interests or values. It is equally clear, however, that partisans do not always follow their party’s lead. The authors investigate the impact of three party-level traits on partisan cue taking: longevity, incumbency, and ideological clarity. As parties age, voters may become more certain of both the party’s reputation and their own allegiance. Governing parties must take action and respond to events, increasing the likelihood of compromise and failure, and therefore may dilute their reputation and disappoint followers. Incumbency aside, some parties exhibit greater ambiguity in their ideological position than other parties, undermining voter certainty about the meaning of cues. The authors test these hypotheses with experiments conducted in three multiparty democracies (Poland, Hungary, and Great Britain). They find that partisans more strongly follow their party’s lead when that party is older, in the opposition, or has developed a more consistent ideological image. However, the impact of longevity vanishes when the other factors are taken into account. Underscoring the importance of voter (un)certainty, ideologically coherent opposition parties have the greatest capacity to shape the policy views of followers.

scholarly journals Inter-Election Vote Swings for the Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact of Economic Performance and Other Factors

Equilibrium ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali T. Akarca
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Political Realignment ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party inTurkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors. For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used. The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties.

Determinants of a political party’s social media strategy: A comparative analysis of Tanzania’s opposition political parties’ Twitter practices

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110410
Author(s):  
Aikande Clement Kwayu
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Context ◽  
Mainstream Media ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Qualitative Research Methodology ◽  
Alternative Means ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opposition Parties

The impact of political context on a political party’s organizing and mobilizing strategies has been noted in the literature. Opposition political parties operating in autocratic contexts look for different ways in which they can communicate, organize, and mobilize their members. Advances in digital technology and, in particular social media, have created such spaces in which political parties can communicate and mobilize their members. In Tanzania, the state has imposed repressive political restrictions against opposition parties. In this context, it would be assumed that opposition political parties would turn to social media as an alternative means for mobilization and communication due to restrictions in traditional spaces such as mainstream media and rallies. This article argues that, in Tanzania, the opposition political parties’ levels of institutionalization and resources determine their use of social media more than the repressive political context. The study compares the Twitter use of two opposition parties—Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo—in two periods between 2016 and 2020, which is the period of increasing authoritarian tendencies in the country. The study deploys a qualitative research methodology using a case study approach and collection of data from the parties’ practices in their official Twitter accounts as well as key informant interviews.

scholarly journals The composition of the National Assembly of Serbia: Challenges and obstacles

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (90) ◽  
pp. 39-59
Author(s):  
Irena Pejić
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
The Political ◽  
Main Question ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Internal Organization ◽  
Normative Framework ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Given that political parties participate in the formation, structuring and activity of the parliament, their presence has had a dual impact on the National Assembly of Serbia in the past three decades. On the one hand, their influence has been reflected on the internal structure and efficiency of parliamentary work. On the other hand, the party system combined with the electoral model has left its mark on the mode of political representation. The paper focuses on the impact the political parties have had on the National Assembly in the Republic of Serbia, particularly their influence on the internal organization of the Assembly and the effectiveness in the parliamentary process. The main goal is to explore the normative framework and parliamentary practice in order to analyze the actual prospects of the National Assembly to meet the basic postulates for exercising effective national representation. The main question is whether the Assembly, relying on its constitutional autonomy, is able to achieve the goals of the "working parliament" and the political representation of all citizens. The problem develops around the extent to which the people's representation is capable of exercising its constitutional functions if it does not support and protect the differentiated political will of the people. The aim is to point out to the possibilities provided by the normative framework and the need for successful parliamentary practice in exercising parliamentary autonomy. Parliamentary autonomy is necessary not only for good internal organization of parliament and effectiveness in the parliamentary process but also in terms of strengthening the National Assembly's external impact and position towards the holders of the executive power. The subject matter of analysis are the activities of political parties in parliament, observed through the work of parliamentary groups and parliamentary committees, as well as a lack of the parliamentary opposition guarantees.

scholarly journals Land Property Regime According to the Vidovdan Constitution and the Agrarian Question in the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 11-36
Author(s):  
Srđan Milošević
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Organizations ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Agrarian Question ◽  
Property Regimes ◽  
Property Regime ◽  
Opposition Parties

Тhe paper discusses the attitudes of political parties on land property regimes in the context of the agrarian issue, and dynamics of the debate on this matter in the Constitutional Committee and in the Constituent National Assembly of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. The very notion of “agrarian question” concerns specifically small peasant landholdings in the process of development of capitalism. This question was raised in the context of the debate on socio-economic problems that were invited by, and eventually, introduced into the Constitution of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes (Vidovdan Constitution, 1921) under the pressure of progressive opposition parties and parts of the ruling political organizations.

Unemployment as an indicator of economic security in the employment sector: A regional dimension

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 715-729
Author(s):  
T.N. Savina
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
National Development ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Employment Policy ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Band Theory ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Subject. To achieve a high level of economic security is a key priority of national development. Employment reveals one of the most important aspects of social development of the individual that is associated with his or her needs satisfaction in the sphere of employment and is boon to economic security. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to show the impact of unemployment on economic security in employment. Methods. I apply such scientific methods as dialectical, historical and logical unity, structural and functional analysis, traditional techniques of economic analysis and synthesis. The methods of multivariate statistical and comparative analysis serve as a methodological basis of the study. To determine the indicator of unemployment, I use the band theory. Results. I underpin the growing role of employment in ensuring economic security. The paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the unemployment status and a comparative analysis of the indicator in the Republic of Mordovia, the Volga Federal District, and the Russian Federation as a whole. I identify trends in the average duration of unemployment, show the distribution of unemployed by level of education and age groups. Conclusions. The average annual unemployment rate in the Republic of Mordovia is lower than in Russia and the Volga Federal District. The findings may be useful for public authorities to substantiate their employment policy at both macro- and meso-levels, for designing programs and strategies for socio-economic development of regions and the social security doctrine, as well as in practical activities of employment services.

Statistical Approaches to Structural Change in Regional Interindustry Models

1986 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 1189-1207
Author(s):  
B Ó Huallacháin
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Multivariate Statistical Analyses ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
State Data ◽  
System A ◽  
Statistical Approaches ◽  
The Impact

The conventional approach to assessing structural change in regional input – output tables is to measure the impact of coefficient change on the estimation of outputs and multipliers. The methods developed and tested in this paper focus exclusively on the coefficients. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses can be used to identify and measure various types of changes ranging from coefficient instability to changes in interindustry relationships as a system. A distinction is made between structural changes in input relationships and those in output relationships. The methods are tested by using Washington State data for the years 1963 and 1967. The results are compared with previous analyses of change in these data.

scholarly journals When do parties put Europe in the centre? Evidence from the 2019 European Parliament election campaign

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572110083
Author(s):  
Michaela Maier ◽  
Carlos Jalali ◽  
Jürgen Maier ◽  
Alessandro Nai ◽  
Sebastian Stier
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
National Level ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Media ◽  
Opposition Parties

European elections have been described as second-order phenomena for voters, the media, but also parties. Yet, since 2009, there exists evidence that not only voters, but also political parties assign increasing significance to European elections. While initially ‘issue entrepreneurs’ were held responsible for this development, the latest campaigns have raised the question of whether mainstream parties are finally also campaigning on European issues. In this article, we examine European Union (EU) salience in the 2019 European Parliament (EP) campaigns of government and opposition parties and the predictors of their strategic behaviours. We test the relevance of factors derived from the selective emphasis and the co-orientation approach within an integrated model of strategic campaign communication based on expert evaluations of 191 parties in 28 EU member states. Results show that the traditional expectation that government parties silence EU issues does not hold anymore; instead, the average EU salience of government and opposition parties is similar on the national level. The strongest predictors for a party’s decision to campaign on EU issues are the co-orientation towards the campaign agendas of competing parties, and party’s EU position.

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