scholarly journals Inter-Election Vote Swings for the Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact of Economic Performance and Other Factors

Equilibrium ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali T. Akarca
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Political Realignment ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party inTurkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors. For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used. The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF IMF LENDING ANNOUNCEMENTS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF STOCK MARKET: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-476
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azeem ◽  
Nisar Ahmad ◽  
Sarfraz Hussain ◽  
Muzammil Khurshid ◽  
Safyan Majid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Multiple Challenges ◽  
The Impact

Purpose of the study: Stock markets have demonstrated varying reactions to IMF lending announcements across various economies. Announcements offered by IMF often be perceived negatively by the participants of the stock market, because of stringent conditions accompanied with the loan that may oppose the political and economic agenda of a borrowing nation. Thus, this study intends to investigate the impact of IMF’s announcements about extending loans to Pakistan on the performance of the Stock market in the debt-ridden economy. Methodology: For regular returns from 1997 to 2017, the benchmarking indexes of KSE-100 and 30 were used. Meanwhile, IMF lending arrangements are categorized into three respective dummies (standby, extended credit facility, and extended fund facility). The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model was used to investigate the effect of IMF’s lending news on the regular stock returns. Main findings: The results show a statistically significant effect of the IMF’s News about lending arrangements on the performance of the stock market in Pakistan. Surprisingly, the negative effect of IMF lending announcements on the performance of the stock market in Pakistan implies that the loans extended by IMF are not professed by speculators as good for the economic performance of the economy. Application of this study: The findings of this study imply that simply extending loans is not a panacea for politically unstable and financially ruined nations. Lending strategies of IMF need to be favourable for the political and economic conditions of a borrowing country. Originality/ Novelty: As for as the novelty is concerned, the study has highlighted the time-varying impact of IMF lending announcements on the performance of the stock market in a financially fragile country where a newborn government facing multiple challenges has made its best effort to avoid borrowing from IMF.

Liverpool Merchants in 19th-Century Niger Delta

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 310-340
Author(s):  
Nimi Wariboko
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Business Ethics ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Max Weber ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Religious Ethics ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Christian Missions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract How does religion or worldview affect business practices and ethics? This tradition of inquiry goes back, at least, to Max Weber who, in the Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, explored the impact of theological suppositions on capitalist economic development. But the connection can also go the other way. So the focus of inquiry can become: How does business ethics or practices affect ethics in a given nation or corporation? This paper inquires into how the political and economic conditions created and sustained by nineteenth-century trading community in the Niger Delta influenced religious practices or ethics of Christian missionaries. This approach to mission study is necessary not only because we want to further understand the work of Christian missions and also to tease out the effect of business ethics on religious ethics, but also because Christian missionaries came to the Niger Delta in the nineteenth century behind foreign merchants.

Patronage and Performance: Factors in the Political Mobility of Provincial Leaders in Post-Deng China

2012 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. 965-981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eun Kyong Choi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Career Mobility ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Political ◽  
Performance Factors ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper attempts to estimate the impact of both factional ties and economic performance on the promotion of provincial Party secretaries and governors by analysing a person–year dataset of their career mobility for inclusive years 1989 to 2009. We found that for provincial Party secretaries whose promotion meant rising to a top national position, both factional ties and good economic performance increased their chance for promotion. On the other hand, for provincial governors whose promotion meant rising to a ministry-level position, only economic performance mattered for their promotion. Among provincial Party secretaries, the extent to which performance affected the likelihood of promotion was not different between factional members and non-members. This suggests that even factional members needed to show good performance to enhance the likelihood of their promotion.

Les députés et les partis politiques sortants profitent-ils d'un avantage électoral ? Une analyse des résultats électoraux au Québec

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 723-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariane Blais-Lacombe ◽  
Marc André Bodet
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Small Difference ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opposition Parties

AbstractUsing official electoral results from provincial elections since 1973, we evaluate the incumbency effect in Quebec by measuring the impact of a combination of characteristics related to candidates and political parties. We verify whether the presence of an incumbent candidate is necessary to ensure that the incumbent party benefits from an electoral advantage. We also compare the magnitude of the incumbency effect between governing and opposition parties. Making use of parametric multivariate statistical tools, we conclude that political parties benefit from an electoral advantage in Quebec. Except for ministers who make a small difference, simple Members of the National Assembly (MNAs) do not improve their electoral performance, while in some cases new candidates with incumbent parties perform better.

Preaching to the Choir

2020 ◽  
pp. 149-165
Author(s):  
Peter Bence Stumpf
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Main Topic ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Decisive Victory

A main topic of the 2018 election campaign in Hungary was strategic voting, seen as an opportunity for opposition parties to remove the governing coalition from power. Strategic split-ticket voting was incentivized by the political context and the electoral system and was further facilitated by a limited cooperation between opposition political forces. Nonetheless, demand-side coordination was indispensable in this aspect. While social media was an important channel during the campaign, it was not crucial for strategic voting as it was mostly used to reinforce the positions of candidates among their own supporters, “preaching to the choir”. The influence of strategically split ballots can be measured in seat shares by modeling what would have happened if there was no coordination and cooperation at all. Results indicate that strategic votes transferred a total of 15 seats from the governing parties to the opposition political blocs, however this was not enough to prevent the decisive victory of the Fidesz-KDNP and another two-thirds supermajority in the Hungarian National Assembly.

The Political Economy of Sectoral Credit Provisioning in India: An Empirical Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepti Kohli
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Contributions ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Liberal Ideology ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Governmental Control

Abstract Electoral dynamics is believed to have a direct bearing on the scope of governmental control over the supply of credit to different economic sectors. This paper attempts to examine the impact of opportunistic electoral manipulations, ideological beliefs and political lobbying on the supply of agricultural and industrial credit across the Indian states. The findings indicate that more competitive elections are associated with increases in credit provision. An incumbent party with a more liberal ideology is found to provide greater average credit to agriculture relative to industry. Finally, an increase in the political contributions provided to an incumbent state government is found to entail greater industrial credit and lower agricultural credit, on an average.

SWAPO’s 50/50 Policy in Namibia’s National Assembly (2015-2018): Full of Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Job Shipululo Amupanda ◽  
Erika Kahelende Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Women Empowerment ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Gender Policy ◽  
South West ◽  
South West Africa ◽  
People’S Organisation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Policy Setting ◽  
Law Making

In 2013, Namibia’s ruling party, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), amended its constitution to implement the 50/50 gender policy. This policy required equal representation of men and women in all its leadership structures and in its representation in institutions such as the National Assembly. The party had been zigzagging on this policy it had adopted at its 2002 congress. Four years since the implementation of SWAPO’s 50/50, an analysis of the impact of this policy in the National Assembly paints a troubling picture. At the level of substance by looking at parliamentary motions tabled, we find that SWAPO’s 50/50 policy in the National Assembly – which resulted in increased number of women in the legislature - did not lead to meaningful agenda setting in favour of women political participation. This article reflects critically on the gender policy in the 6th parliament’s National Assembly, which is the principal law-making and policy-setting arm of parliament with a view to assess whether there have been successes in facilitating women empowerment and participation in a meaningful way.

Ruling party landslide empowers South Korea’s Moon

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The results of the 2020 National Assembly election in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in’s liberal Democratic Party won an unprecedented 180 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly in the four-yearly parliamentary election on April 15. Despite COVID-19, voting was smooth and turnout reached 66.2%, a 26-year high. The conservative opposition leader lost his seat and has resigned. A prominent North Korean defector won a constituency seat for the first time. Impacts Unless the next two years are catastrophic, this win augurs well for the Democrats to retain the presidency after Moon’s term ends in 2022. Even if a conservative retakes the presidency in 2022, their first two years will be thwarted by a parliament now overwhelmingly liberal. Moon will be emboldened to resist US demands on paying for US troops, take a hard line towards Tokyo and pursue peace with Pyongyang. In economic policy, the priority will be to minimise the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, exports and living standards.

Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Eisenberg ◽  
Jonathan Ketcham
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
County Level ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Level Analysis

Abstract In United States presidential elections, the incumbent party’s fortunes depend significantly on recent economic conditions, as numerous studies have shown. Many details of how economic voting takes place, however, are still not well understood. Here we present evidence on four issues. 1) Which is more important for determining people’s votes, national or local economic conditions? 2) What time frame do people consider in economic voting? 3) Which demographic groups are most sensitive to the economy in their voting behavior? 4) How does economic voting depend on the political context—in particular, whether a candidate is running for re-election, and whether the incumbent party also controls Congress? Our study includes the first county-level analysis of economic voting in presidential elections. We find the answers to our four questions are: 1) national conditions, by far; 2) the most recent year; 3) blacks, females, and the non-elderly; and 4) no.

scholarly journals The composition of the National Assembly of Serbia: Challenges and obstacles

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (90) ◽  
pp. 39-59
Author(s):  
Irena Pejić
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
The Political ◽  
Main Question ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Internal Organization ◽  
Normative Framework ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Given that political parties participate in the formation, structuring and activity of the parliament, their presence has had a dual impact on the National Assembly of Serbia in the past three decades. On the one hand, their influence has been reflected on the internal structure and efficiency of parliamentary work. On the other hand, the party system combined with the electoral model has left its mark on the mode of political representation. The paper focuses on the impact the political parties have had on the National Assembly in the Republic of Serbia, particularly their influence on the internal organization of the Assembly and the effectiveness in the parliamentary process. The main goal is to explore the normative framework and parliamentary practice in order to analyze the actual prospects of the National Assembly to meet the basic postulates for exercising effective national representation. The main question is whether the Assembly, relying on its constitutional autonomy, is able to achieve the goals of the "working parliament" and the political representation of all citizens. The problem develops around the extent to which the people's representation is capable of exercising its constitutional functions if it does not support and protect the differentiated political will of the people. The aim is to point out to the possibilities provided by the normative framework and the need for successful parliamentary practice in exercising parliamentary autonomy. Parliamentary autonomy is necessary not only for good internal organization of parliament and effectiveness in the parliamentary process but also in terms of strengthening the National Assembly's external impact and position towards the holders of the executive power. The subject matter of analysis are the activities of political parties in parliament, observed through the work of parliamentary groups and parliamentary committees, as well as a lack of the parliamentary opposition guarantees.

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