Changes of grain production potential in farming–pastoral ecotone: a case study in West Jilin, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 156 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161
Author(s):  
Fei Li ◽  
Shuwen Zhang ◽  
Yijing Zhang ◽  
Haijuan Yang ◽  
Jiuchun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Zone Model ◽  
Grain Production ◽  
Production Potential ◽  
Period 2 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractGrain production potential is mainly influenced by agroclimate and land use. In the present study, substantial regional differences associated with the impact of climate change were found (i.e. the degree of climate-related impacts varied among regions). Currently, there is an urgent need for effective responses and adaptations to different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes. Therefore, the aim was to examine ecotones and explore trends and influential factors associated with grain production potential change. Using the Global Agro-ecological Zone model, the grain production potential of West Jilin, China under different conditions during various years were estimated, considering meteorological, soil, topographic, land use and other data. The results showed that total grain production potential (TGrPP) of West Jilin increased continuously from 1976 to 2013. The average annual increase in TGrPP was higher in period 1 (1976–2000) than period 2 (2000–2013). In period 1, grain production potential was influenced mainly by irrigation percentage changes, followed by land use change. The conversion of grassland to farmland was the most important land use change factor that was associated with increased grain production potential. Climate change affected grain production potential in period 1 negatively. In period 2, climate change had the largest impact and land use imparted the smallest effect on grain production potential. Finally, the decrease in irrigation percentage resulted in reduced grain production potential.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Floods Disaster on Soil Erosion Risk Based on the RUSLE-GloSEM Approach in Western Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Akbari ◽  
Ehsan Neamatollahi ◽  
Hadi Memarian ◽  
Mohammad Alizadeh Noughani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Soil ◽  
Major Floods ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Floods cause great damage to ecosystems and are among the main agents of soil erosion. Given the importance of soils for the functioning of ecosystems and development and improvement of bio-economic conditions, the risk and rate of soil erosion was assessed using the RUSLE model in Iran’s Lorestan province before and after a period of major floods in late 2018 and early 2019. Furthermore, soil erosion was calculated for current and future conditions based on the Global Soil Erosion Modeling Database (GloSEM). The results showed that agricultural development and land use change are the main causes of land degradation in the southern and central parts of the study area. The impact of floods was also significant since our evaluations showed that soil erosion increased from 4.12 t ha-1 yr-1 before the floods to 10.93 t ha-1 yr-1 afterwards. Field surveying using 64 ground control points determined that erodibility varies from 0.17 to 0.49% in the study area. Orchards, farms, rangelands and forests with moderate or low vegetation cover were the most vulnerable land uses to soil erosion. The GloSEM modeling results revealed that climate change is the main cause of change in the rate of soil erosion. Combined land use change-climate change simulation showed that soil erosion will increase considerably in the future under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. In the study area, both natural factors, i.e. climate change and human factors such as agricultural development, population growth, and overgrazing are the main drivers of soil erosion.

Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

2018 ◽  
Vol 135 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gries ◽  
Margarete Redlin ◽  
Juliette Espinosa Ugarte
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 976-993
Author(s):  
Yuhui Yan ◽  
Baolin Xue ◽  
Yinglan A ◽  
Wenchao Sun ◽  
Hanwen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Ne China ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Hailar Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

scholarly journals Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinli Ke ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Caixue Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Urban Land Expansion ◽  
The Impact

Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1) warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2) the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3) the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4) and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

scholarly journals Land Use Zoning for Conserving Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenchen Shi ◽  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Yongwei Yuan ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Zhihui Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

Ecosystem services are the benefit human populations derive directly and indirectly from the natural environment. They suffer from both the human intervention, like land use zoning change, and natural intervention, like the climate change. Under the background of climate change, regulation services of ecosystem could be strengthened under proper land use zoning policy to mitigate the climate change. In this paper, a case study was conducted in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin to assess the ecosystem services conservation zoning under the change of land use associated with climate variations. The research results show the spatial impact of land use zoning on ecosystem services in the study area which are significant reference for the spatial optimization of land use zoning in preserving the key ecosystem services to mitigate the climate change. The research contributes to the growing literature in finely characterizing the ecosystem services zones altered by land use change to alleviate the impact of climate change, as there is no such systematic ecosystem zoning method before.

scholarly journals Forecasting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 4265-4295 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dams ◽  
S. T. Woldeamlak ◽  
O. Batelaan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Groundwater Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Land-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible.

scholarly journals Relationship between urban tourism traffic and tourism land use: A case study of Xiamen Island

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 761-776
Author(s):  
Yueer Gao ◽  
Yanqing Liao ◽  
Donggen Wang ◽  
Yongguang Zou
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Tourism ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Functional Differences ◽  
Period 2 ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The development of tourism leads to changes in land-use demands and patterns, which are complex and dynamic, in tourist cities. Functional differences in land use produce different travel needs and have different impacts on traffic, especially on tourism. This paper explores the relationship between tourism land use and tourism traffic. Taking Xiamen Island as an example, using multivariable linear regression models, tourism land use is divided into accommodation land use, shopping land use and restaurant land use as the independent variables of the model; and the origin-destination (OD) density of traffic analysis zones (TAZs) during National Day in 2018 (October 1 to 5) is chosen as the dependent variable. To compare the different impacts between tourism land use and tourism traffic during the tourism and non-tourism periods, the non-tourism period (March 11 to 15) is further studied. The results show the following: (1) Xiamen, as a tourism city, has not only regular traffic but also tourism traffic, and traffic during the tourism period is totally different than that in the non-tourism period. (2) Tourism land use has a considerable impact on both tourism traffic and non-tourism traffic, but the impact is greater during the tourism period than the non-tourism period. (3) In the morning peak hour of both the tourism period and the non-tourism period, accommodation land use shows prominent effects on traffic. In the evening peak hour, shopping land use significantly impacts traffic. The study provides a basis for urban tourism land use adjustment to achieve the sustainable development of tourism traffic.

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