scholarly journals Investor Sentiment and Employment

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 1581-1618
Author(s):  
Maurizio Montone ◽  
Remco C. J. Zwinkels
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Level Data ◽  
International Industry ◽  
Negative Effect

We develop a multi-country model with moral hazard and noise traders and show that investor sentiment should affect employment growth both domestically and abroad. Using a large sample of international industry-level data, we find strong support for the model’s predictions. We show that U.S. investor sentiment has a positive association with labor market conditions around the world, due to spillover effects as well as foreign direct investments from the United States. We also find that U.S. sentiment amplifies the negative effect of local financial crises on job losses, which supports the idea that financial development has a “dark side.”

IS THERE A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MERGER AND ACQUISITION AND NON-MERGER AND ACQUISITION FDI? FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM JAPANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INTO UNITED STATES

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (04) ◽  
pp. 1350028
Author(s):  
JOSEPH D. ALBA ◽  
PETER X. K. SONG ◽  
PEIMING WANG
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
The United States ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Complementary Effect ◽  
Japanese Firms ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Unit Increase

Japanese firms undertake multiple foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the United States. When Japanese firms undertake merger and acquisition (M&A) FDI, they acquire indivisible assets in the United States. To utilize their acquired assets fully, these firms may undertake additional non-M&A FDI. This implies a positive association between the number of M&As and the number of non-M&A FDIs because they may be complements. In contrast, the literature on the choice of modes of FDI examines the tradeoff between M&A and non-M&A FDI. This may suggest a negative association between the number of M&As and non-M&A FDIs because they may be substitutes. The authors examine whether the number of M&As and non-M&A FDIs are positively associated or not by proposing an econometric model that tests the contemporaneous association and the lagged complementary effect between M&A and non-M&A FDI. Using firm-level data, the authors find evidence that M&A and non-M&A FDI of Japanese firms in the United States are positively associated. Particularly, the findings indicate that given all other things equal, a one unit increase in the number of the firm's M&A FDI (non-M&A) projects in a given year will increase the firm's average non-M&A (M&A) FDI by 28.1% (15.8%) the following year.

scholarly journals The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (207) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Brandao-Marques ◽  
Qianying Chen ◽  
Claudio Raddatz ◽  
Jérôme Vandenbussche ◽  
Peichu Xie
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Allocation ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Credit Quality ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Future Growth

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

scholarly journals Farmers Market Locations and Their Determinants: An Empirical Analysis in New England

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-506
Author(s):  
Alessandro Bonanno ◽  
Joshua Berning ◽  
Hamideh Etemaadnia
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
The United States ◽  
Farmers Markets ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Farmers Market ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Zip Code ◽  
Strong Expansion

After a strong expansion across the United States, farmers markets’ (FMs) growth rate has declined in spite of policymakers’ interest in promoting them. In this study we model farmers’ participation in FMs and investigate what market factors affect FMs’ location using zip-code-level data for the New England states. Our results suggest that market size, education, presence of children in the household and SNAP participation lend to the establishment of FMs, more than income per se. Farming activities has a positive association with the likelihood of FMs, while proxies for establishment costs and the presence of traditional distribution channels may play a limiting role in their formation.

scholarly journals Dynamic Spillover Effects of Investor Sentiment and Return between China and the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Ping Zhang ◽  
Lin Zhang ◽  
Zhenghui Meng ◽  
Tewei Wang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Market Linkage ◽  
The Difference

As the two largest economies in the world, the investor sentiment and stock return of China and the United States are the focus of global attention. In this paper, we study the dynamic spillover effects of investor sentiment and return between China and the United States. First, we use the relative price differences of 9 dual-listed companies in China and the United States simultaneously to verify whether investor sentiment affects stock returns. We find a significant positive correlation between the relative price difference of dual-listed companies and the difference of investor sentiment, indicating that the investor sentiment index indeed affects stock prices. Next, we construct the TVP-VAR model to study the dynamic spillover effects of investor sentiment and the return between China and the United States. Through the time-varying impulse response, we find investor sentiment has a significant dynamic impact on returns. Therefore, investment sentiment contagion and stock market linkage between China and the United States are obvious. In addition, we conduct various robust tests, and all results are consistent.

Migration and the Internet

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas John Cooke ◽  
Ian Shuttleworth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Using Data ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Dynamics Models

It is widely presumed that information and communication technologies, or ICTs, enable migration in several ways; primarily by reducing the costs of migration. However, a reconsideration of the relationship between ICTs and migration suggests that ICTs may just as well hinder migration; primarily by reducing the costs of not moving.  Using data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics, models that control for sources of observed and unobserved heterogeneity indicate a strong negative effect of ICT use on inter-state migration within the United States. These results help to explain the long-term decline in internal migration within the United States.

Investments by Emerging-Market Multinationals in Other Emerging Markets

2018 ◽  
pp. 630-656
Author(s):  
Jing Li ◽  
Daniel Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments

This chapter reviews the literature on foreign direct investments among emerging economies (E-E FDI), focusing on the motivations behind E-E FDI, country-specific advantages and firm-specific advantages associated with emerging-economy multinational enterprises (EMNEs), and spillover effects of E-E FDI on host-country economic and institutional development. We identify the following topics as posing important questions for future research: EMNEs’ ability to leverage home-government resources and diplomatic connections to promote investment in other emerging economies; nonmarket strategies of EMNEs in emerging economies; ownership and corporate governance affecting investment strategy and performance of EMNEs; E-E FDI contributions to sustainable development in host countries. Future studies should also consider potential heterogeneity among EMNEs by integrating insights from institutional theory, network theory, political science, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, and sustainable-development research.

scholarly journals Modelling the European Union Sustainability Transition: A Soft-Linking Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6303
Author(s):  
Andrea M. Bassi ◽  
Valeria Costantini ◽  
Elena Paglialunga
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Intrinsic Complexity

The European Green Deal (EGD) is the most ambitious decarbonisation strategy currently envisaged, with a complex mix of different instruments aiming at improving the sustainability of the development patterns of the European Union in the next 30 years. The intrinsic complexity brings key open questions on the cost and effectiveness of the strategy. In this paper we propose a novel methodological approach to soft-linking two modelling tools, a systems thinking (ST) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, in order to provide a broader ex-ante policy evaluation process. We use ST to highlight the main economic feedback loops the EGD strategy might trigger. We then quantify these loops with a scenario analysis developed in a dynamic CGE framework. Our main finding is that such a soft-linking approach allows discovery of multiple channels and spillover effects across policy instruments that might help improve the policy mix design. Specifically, positive spillovers arise from the adoption of a revenue recycling mechanism that ensures strong support for the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies. Such spillover effects benefit not only the European Union (EU) market but also non-EU countries via trade-based technology transfer, with a net positive effect in terms of global emissions reduction.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

scholarly journals Cyber Terrorism and Public Support for Retaliation – A Multi-Country Survey Experiment

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Ryan Shandler ◽  
Michael L. Gross ◽  
Sophia Backhaus ◽  
Daphna Canetti
Keyword(s):  
Television News ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Randomized Experiments ◽  
Cyber Terrorism ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Psychological Mechanisms ◽  
Psychological Mechanism

Abstract Does exposure to cyber terrorism prompt calls for retaliatory military strikes? By what psychological mechanism does it do so? Through a series of controlled, randomized experiments, this study exposed respondents (n = 2,028) to television news reports depicting cyber and conventional terror attacks against critical infrastructures in the United States, United Kingdom and Israel. The findings indicate that only lethal cyber terrorism triggers strong support for retaliation. Findings also confirm that anger bridges exposure to cyber terrorism and retaliation, rather than psychological mechanisms such as threat perception or anxiety as other studies propose. These findings extend to the cyber realm a recent trend that views anger as a primary mechanism linking exposure to terrorism with militant preferences. With cyber terrorism a mounting international concern, this study demonstrates how exposure to this threat can generate strong public support for retaliatory policies, depending on the lethality of the attack.

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