Spatial distribution of snares in Ruma National Park, Kenya, with implications for management of the roan antelope Hippotragus equinuslangheldi and other wildlife

AbstractPoaching with snares has been identified as the main cause of decline of the endemic roan antelope Hippotragus equinuslangheldi in Ruma National Park, Kenya, from > 200 in 1979 to 37 in 2009. However, the spatial snaring patterns in the Park are not clearly understood. The focus of our study was to map the spatial distribution of snares in the Park and to identify the factors influencing this distribution, to develop effective methods of wildlife protection. Using data collected from 56 sample plots during 2006–2008, coupled with geographical information system techniques, we investigated the association between the occurrence of snares and the distribution of geographical features (slope, elevation), infrastructure (roads, fences), essential resources for wildlife (water, salt licks, forage), roan locations and wildlife density. Ripley's L function for assessing complete spatial randomness indicated that snares occurred in clumps (hotspots) up to 4 km apart. Negative binomial regression indicated that these hotspots occurred (1) near water resources, salt licks and the Park boundary, (2) far from roan locations and Park roads, (3) in areas with low gradients and low wildlife density, and (4) in areas with burned vegetation. We recommend concentrating routine security patrol efforts and resources on snare hotspots to reduce snaring and to protect the roan antelope and other threatened wildlife.

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Identifying Temporal Aggregation Effect on Crash-Frequency Modeling

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13116214 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 6214

Author(s):

Bumjoon Bae ◽

Changju Lee ◽

Tae-Young Pak ◽

Sunghoon Lee

Keyword(s):

Traffic Safety ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Random Effect ◽

Temporal Correlation ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽

Parameter Estimates ◽

Crash Frequency ◽

Crash Frequency Modeling ◽

Using Data

Aggregation of spatiotemporal data can encounter potential information loss or distort attributes via individual observation, which would influence modeling results and lead to an erroneous inference, named the ecological fallacy. Therefore, deciding spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental consideration in a spatiotemporal analysis. The modifiable temporal unit problem (MTUP) occurs when using data that is temporally aggregated. While consideration of the spatial dimension has been increasingly studied, the counterpart, a temporal unit, is rarely considered, particularly in the traffic safety modeling field. The purpose of this research is to identify the MTUP effect in crash-frequency modeling using data with various temporal scales. A sensitivity analysis framework is adopted with four negative binomial regression models and four random effect negative binomial models having yearly, quarterly, monthly, and weekly temporal units. As the different temporal unit was applied, the result of the model estimation also changed in terms of the mean and significance of the parameter estimates. Increasing temporal correlation due to using the small temporal unit can be handled with the random effect models.

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Managing Inflation

Crime & Delinquency ◽

10.1177/0011128716679796 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 63 (1) ◽

pp. 77-87 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

William H. Fisher ◽

Stephanie W. Hartwell ◽

Xiaogang Deng

Keyword(s):

Count Data ◽

Regression Models ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Excess Zeros ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Negative Binomial Models ◽

Using Data ◽

Over Dispersion ◽

Binomial Models

Poisson and negative binomial regression procedures have proliferated, and now are available in virtually all statistical packages. Along with the regression procedures themselves are procedures for addressing issues related to the over-dispersion and excessive zeros commonly observed in count data. These approaches, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial models, use logit or probit models for the “excess” zeros and count regression models for the counted data. Although these models are often appropriate on statistical grounds, their interpretation may prove substantively difficult. This article explores this dilemma, using data from a study of individuals released from facilities maintained by the Massachusetts Department of Correction.

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Safety Evaluation of Horizontal Alignment Design Consistency on Rural Two-Lane Highways

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/0361198119829414 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2673 (2) ◽

pp. 628-636 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ian Hamilton ◽

Scott Himes ◽

R. J. Porter ◽

Eric Donnell

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Safety Evaluation ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Expected Number ◽

Horizontal Alignment ◽

Highway Safety Manual ◽

Horizontal Curves ◽

Alternative Measures ◽

Using Data ◽

Design Consistency

Design consistency in the context of highway and street design refers to the conformance of highway geometry to driver expectancy. Existing design policies provide guidance related to horizontal alignment design consistency. While design consistency has safety implications and is intuitively linked to roadway departure crashes, the authors are only aware of a few studies that sought to link measures of design consistency to safety performance. This study explores relationships between alternative measures of horizontal alignment design consistency and the expected number of roadway departure crashes along horizontal curves on rural, two-lane, two-way roads. The authors analyzed 854 horizontal curves on rural two-lane highways in Indiana and Pennsylvania using data obtained from the SHRP 2 Roadway Information Database (RID) 2.0. Relationships between measures of design consistency and the expected number of roadway departure crashes were explored using a negative binomial regression modeling approach. The results indicate a relationship between the frequency of roadway departure crashes on a study curve and the radii of upstream and downstream curves. The ratio of the length of upstream and downstream tangents relative to a study curve radius was also statistically significant in Pennsylvania. Such findings are intuitive given the concept of design consistency and represent an advancement to existing predictive methods in the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual, which estimate the expected number of crashes on a segment as a function of the characteristics of only that segment.

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The Relationship between Near-Repeat Street Robbery and the Environment: Evidence from Malmö, Sweden

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi9040188 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 188

Author(s):

Markus Rasmusson ◽

Marco Helbich

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Socioeconomic Indicators ◽

Law Enforcement Agencies ◽

Environmental Characteristics ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Using Data ◽

Near Repeat ◽

The Relationship ◽

Crime Event

Near-repeat crime refers to a pattern whereby one crime event is soon followed by a similar crime event at a nearby location. Existing research on near-repeat crime patterns is inconclusive about where near-repeat patterns emerge and which physical and social factors influence them. The present research addressed this gap by examining the relationship between initiator events (i.e., the first event in a near-repeat pattern) and environmental characteristics to estimate where near-repeat patterns are most likely to emerge. A two-step analysis was undertaken using data on street robberies reported in Malmö, Sweden, for the years 2006–15. After determining near-repeat patterns, we assessed the correlations between initiator events and criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators using a negative binomial regression at a street segment level. Our results show that both criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators have a significant influence on the spatial variation of initiator events, suggesting that environmental characteristics can be used to explain the emergence of near-repeat patterns. Law enforcement agencies can utilize the findings in efforts to prevent further street robberies from occurring.

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Gendered mobility and violence in the São Paulo metro, Brazil

Urban Studies ◽

10.1177/0042098019885552 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 58 (1) ◽

pp. 203-222 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Gustavo Carvalho Moreira ◽

Vania Aparecida Ceccato

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Geographical Information ◽

São Paulo ◽

Metro Station ◽

Late Night ◽

Temporal Features ◽

Time Patterns ◽

Violent Victimisation

With about 12 million inhabitants, São Paulo, Brazil, is the largest city in South America. As in many other major southern hemisphere cities, this extreme concentration of people imposes a number of mobility and security challenges. The objective of this article was to investigate the space-time patterns of mobility and violent victimisation in São Paulo’s metro stations from a gender perspective. The methodology combines use of a Geographical Information System (GIS), statistical analysis through negative binomial regression modelling and hypothesis testing. Results indicate that mobility and the level of victimisation are gender dependent. Women are at higher risk of victimisation than men in São Paulo’s central metro station, while men run higher risk of violence at end stations – both notably during late night periods. The presence of employees reduces the risk of violence, except during the mornings. The article suggests that crime prevention initiatives need to be gender informed and sensitive to the particular spatial and temporal features of rapid transit environments.

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Blood Levels of the Heavy Metal, Lead, and Caries in Children Aged 24-72 Months: NHANES III

Caries Research ◽

10.1159/000365297 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 49 (1) ◽

pp. 26-33 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

R. Constance Wiener ◽

D. Leann Long ◽

Richard J. Jurevic

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Strong Association ◽

Lead Level ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Blood Lead ◽

Blood Lead Levels ◽

Nhanes Iii ◽

Blood Levels ◽

Lead Levels ◽

Using Data

Lead remains a significant pollutant. It has acute toxic and chronic effects on many tissues and accumulates in teeth and bones. The researchers for this study investigated the association of blood lead levels with the extent/severity of caries as measured by the number of decayed/filled teeth of children aged 24-72 months using data from NHANES III (the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), accounting for the excess zero caries in the analysis and using less than 2 µg/dl as the reference blood lead level (n = 3,127). Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicated unadjusted extent/severity mean ratios of 1.79, 1.88 and 1.94 for the number of decayed/filled teeth in children whose blood lead levels were 2-5, 5-10 and >10 µg/dl, respectively, compared with children having <2 µg/dl blood lead levels. The results did not attenuate when other variables were added to the model for the 5-10 and >10 µg/dl levels of exposure. The adjusted extent/severity mean ratios were 1.84, 2.14 and 1.91, respectively, for the categories. This study indicated a strong association of blood lead levels with increasing numbers of carious teeth in children aged 24-72 months. These findings support other studies in an innovative analysis handling cases of children with no caries. The findings may inform caries risk assessment. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Comparative effectiveness of dimethyl fumarate in Multiple Sclerosis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-321622/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Pauline Bosco-Levy ◽

Marc Debouverie ◽

Bruno Brochet ◽

Céline Louapre ◽

Elisabeth Maillard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Multiple Sclerosis ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Real Life ◽

Logistic Models ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Dimethyl Fumarate ◽

Population Based ◽

Disability Progression ◽

Real Life Setting ◽

Using Data

Abstract Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of dimethyl fumarate (DMF) on annual rate of relapse (ARR) and disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to injectable immunomodulators (IMM), teriflunomide (TERI) and fingolimob (FTY), in real life setting. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted using data of the French nationwide claims database, SNDS. All patients initiating IMM, TERI, FTY or DMF between July 1, 2015 and December 12, 2017, with 4.5 years of database history and 1 to 3.5 years of follow-up were included in this study. DMF patients were 1:1 matched to IMM, TERI or FTY using a high dimensional Propensity Score. Negative binomial regression and a regression logistic models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR ± [95% CI]) of ARR and the Odds Ratio (OR ± [95% CI]) of disability progression, respectively. Results: Overall, 9 304 subjects were identified: 29.0% initiated DMF, 33.2% TERI, 5.6% FTY and 32.2% an IMM. The matched cohorts consisted of 1779 DMF- IMM, patients, 1679 DMF-TERI patients, and 376 DMF-FTY patients. DMF significantly reduced ARR compared to IMM (RR 0.72 [0.61 - 0.86]) and TERI (0.81 [0.68 - 0.96]). The risk of the progression of MS specific disability was not significantly different for any matched cohorts.Interpretation: DMF is associated with lower risk of relapse for patients with RRMS than other first-line RRMS agents (TERI and IIM).

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Anthrax immunization of free-ranging Roan Antelope Hippotragus Equinus in the Kruger National Park

Koedoe ◽

10.4102/koedoe.v16i1.882 ◽

1973 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

V. De Vos ◽

G.L. Van Rooyen ◽

J.J. Kloppers

Keyword(s):

National Park ◽

Kruger National Park ◽

Successful Implementation ◽

Vital Part ◽

Roan Antelope ◽

Hippotragus Equinus ◽

Free Ranging

An aerial method of immunization is presented as afeasible means of vaccinating free-ranging roan antelope Hippotragus equinus against anthrax in the Kruger National Park. Themethod is described in detail and the results, obtained aftertwo consecutive years of application, are noted, tabulated andevaluated. A helicopter and a fixed wing aircraft were success-fully utilized in the location of widely dispersed roan antelopeherds and to bring the operator within effective firing rangeof the animal to be darted. A disposable projectile syringe,which simultaneously administers vaccine and effectively marksthe animal for later identification, is considered a vital part inthe successful implementation of the aerial method of immunization.

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Comparing Disciplinary Infraction Rates of North Carolina Fair Sentencing and Structured Sentencing Inmates: A Natural Experiment

The Prison Journal ◽

10.1177/0032885599079001004 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 79 (1) ◽

pp. 45-71 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

JOHN M. MEMORY ◽

GUANG GUO ◽

KEN PARKER ◽

TOM SUTTON

Keyword(s):

North Carolina ◽

Natural Experiment ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Research Literature ◽

Prison Inmates ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Truth In Sentencing ◽

Using Data

Using data collected from June 1, 1995, to August 30, 1996, the researchers compared the disciplinary conviction rates of North Carolina prison inmates admitted during the study period before the truth-in-sentencing law and inmates admitted during that period under the truth-in-sentencing law. Based on deterrence theory, the researchers hypothesized that pre-truth-in-sentencing inmates, who could lose time off for good behavior and parole as results of a disciplinary conviction, would have higher disciplinary conviction rates than truth-in-sentencing inmates. Truth-in-sentencing inmates, with shorter sentences, could lose neither time off for good behavior nor parole as a result of disciplinary conviction. Cox regression and negative binomial regression procedures using control variables identified in the research literature generally supported the research hypotheses.

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Colleges and Community Crime: An Analysis of Campus Proximity and Neighborhood Crime Rates

Crime & Delinquency ◽

10.1177/0011128720974312 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 001112872097431

Author(s):

Kelsey Cundiff

Keyword(s):

College Students ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Structural Characteristics ◽

Property Crime ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Past Research ◽

College Campuses ◽

Neighborhood Crime ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Using Data

Property and violent crime have been associated in past research with many of the same lifestyle features typical of college students and the structural characteristics of the neighborhoods where students generally cluster. According to opportunity theory, individuals with the lifestyles and routine activities similar to college students are vulnerable to victimization. Therefore, higher rates of crime can be expected in the neighborhoods that surround college campuses. Using data from the National Neighborhood Crime Survey, this study uses multilevel negative binomial regression to analyze the relationship between proximity to a college campus and rates of violent and property crime. Results show that bordering tracts have higher rates of larceny, burglary, and robbery, controlling for other neighborhood- and city-level indicators of crime.

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