scholarly journals Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty

1976 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Richardson ◽  
Harry P. Mapp
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Small Farm ◽  
Perfect Knowledge ◽  
Net Returns

Managers of business firms, large or small, farm or nonfarm, must make investment decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. However, in evaluating investments, the assumption of perfect knowledge has often been used to simplify the analysis. For example, an estimate of average annual net returns is frequently discounted into perpetuity to evaluate a real estate investment alternative. Capital budgeting literature suggests a number of approaches to evaluating alternative investments. However, use of concepts such as the payback period, average rate of return, internal rate of return and net present value embodies the assumption of perfect knowledge.

scholarly journals Reinvestment Bias When Analyzing Mutually Exclusive Assets

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Robert J. Sweeney
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate ◽  
Current Period ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Flows Over Time

Capital budgeting decisions generally involve the commitment of resources in the current period to secure positive cash flows over time that generate a rate of return in excess of the cost of the funds invested. The most common techniques used to perform this analysis are the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR).Conceptually, these two techniques are substitutable; i.e. the resulting decision from a NPV analysis is identical to the decision from an IRR analysis. In practice, however, the NPV and the IRR can, on occasion, produce conflicting decisions. Specifically, when analyzing mutually exclusive assets the Net Present Value can support one asset while the Internal Rate of Return supports the other. The purpose of this paper is twofold; first, to highlight structural deficiencies in the conventional application of the NPV and the IRR, and second, to demonstrate a procedure to correct for these structural errors.

scholarly journals Analisa investasi dengan Feasibility Study untuk meningkatkan Kecerdasan Finansial pada Budi Daya Ikan di Sidoarjo

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Sitti Khumairoh
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Fish Ponds ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate ◽  
Financial Intelligence

Potential of each region in Indonesia from region to region and different. Indonesia has many islands and is surrounded by sea certainly has the potential of natural resources are not unlimited. One of the areas in Indonesia that fish is also a producer of Sidoarjo regency. Sidoarjo regency in East Java is located between two major rivers namely River Porong and Surabaya River so famous as the city of Delta. Which of the three investment potential of the aquaculture of milkfish, shrimp and Tilapia vaname who earn higher incomes?, Does investment analysis with feasibility studies to improve financial intelligence on aquaculture farmers. Whether or not a project implemented successfully in this case could provide economic benefits or provide financial benefits to the company the necessary analysis or assessment of the situation and the prospects of a project taking into account several criteria such as objectives, benefits and aspects related to the project in research project feasibility analysis. To find out more about the three types of resources are then conducted a field study. From the data collected by the theory of feasible study capital budgeting and financial analysis, data is processed to find out from the three farms that produce high profits. While the capital budgeting analysis that is used is the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (PP), average rate of return (ARR) and Profitability Index (PI). From the calculation results can be seen that when viewed from the side of the capital vaname shrimp cultivation requires a smaller capital. in terms of earnings before interest and tax of tilapia aquaculture generate greater revenues. Pay back period of milkfish cultivation period of more rapid return of investment when compared with the cultivation of other woods. Internal rate of return calculations show that the cultivation of fish internal rate of returnnya higher than other cultivation. If you look at the results of the study fish ponds can be used as an investment option, because the investments are in need of smaller and faster payback periodnya. Another thing that underlies this selection of fish culture management easier and more powerful survival compared with other cultivation. Keywords: Investment Analysis, Fisheries, financial intelligence.

scholarly journals Analisis Kelayakan Pengembangan Usaha Pasta Kangen Jupiter dan Mogot Jakarta Barat dengan Menggunakan Metode Capital Budgeting Tahun 2019-2023

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
Ni Puthu Eka Wardani Haliasih ◽  
◽  
Pambuko Naryoto ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Research Methodology ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate

Abstract Purpose: This study aimed to determine the feasibility of establishing the Pasta Kangen Jupiter dan Mogot Jakarta Barat in West Jakarta. Research methodology: The assessment is reviewed with Capital Budgeting in Optimistic, Moderate, and Pessimistic versions. Several methods include Payback Period, Net Present Value, Profitability Index, Average Rate of Return, Internal Rate of Return, dan Discounted Payback Period. Results: Based on the results of calculations using the Optimistic and Moderate Version of Capital Budgeting method, Pasta Kangen Jupiter Daan Mogot Jakarta Barat business in West Jakarta is feasible to run, while the Pessimistic Version is not feasible to run.

ANALISIS CAPITAL BUDGETING TERHADAP KELAYAKAN INVESTASI AKTIVA TETAP PADA PT. KHARISMA ARTA ABADI GUNA LUWUK KABUPATEN BANGGAI

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Irwan Moridu ◽  
Sitti Damayanti Adista
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate

Tujuan yang ingin dicapai dengan diadakannya penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis kelayakan rencana investasi asset tetap yang berupa penggantian mesin baru pada PT. Kharisma abadi arta guna luwuk. Adapun teknik yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah deskriptif sedangkan pendekatan yang digunakan adalan kuantitatif, analisis data menggunakan laporan arus kas untuk menghitung Payback Period,Average Rate Of Return,Net Present Value, Profitability index,Internal Rate Of Return. Dari hasil analisis data diperoleh hasil bahwa untuk PP 1 tahun 9 bulan sehingga proyek di terima, untuk ARR dieroleh nilai 51,84%>25% maka proyek investasi diterima,untuk NPV diperoleh nilai positif Rp. 3.825.223.229 maka proyek diterima, dan untuk PI diperoleh nilai 3,5>1 maka investasi layak dilaksanakan. Dari penelitian yang telah dilakukan untuk mengantisipasi kerugian-kerugian yang tidak diharapkan oleh pihak PT. Kharisma Abadi Arta Guna harus melakukan analisis kelayakan investasi sebelum melakukan investasi , agar dapat mengurangi resiko yang terjadi.

scholarly journals Mutually exclusive capital projects: A critique of Fisherian analysis

1994 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-51
Author(s):  
S. Paulo
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Capital Projects ◽  
Internal Rate ◽  
Project Life

In capital budgeting a Fisherian analysis is undertaken to resolve conflicts in rankings which arise when mutually exclusive projects have been evaluated according to the net present value and internal rate of return criteria. Within the literature, the projects which have been subjected to a Fisherian analysis, all have the same required rates of return because the required rate of return is held constant irrespective of the differences in the characteristics of the mutually exclusive projects. The conflict in rankings of mutually exclusive projects is typically ascribed to characteristics such as differences in initial outlay and project life span, disparities in the timing of cash flows, the reinvestment rate assumption, and the difficulties of multiple or no unique internal rate of return when the cash flows are non-conventional. Despite these differences among projects, the same required rate of return is used. The central question which is addressed in this article, is whether the same required rate of return can reasonably be used for the valuation of each of the mutually exclusive projects, as well as when a choice is made from among the mutually exclusive projects. In the discussion this 'conventional wisdom' of a constant required rate of return for both the valuations and the choice of an alternative is questioned, and it is suggested that one of the causes of a conflict in rankings may be the use of incorrectly specified required rates of return. Also presented in this article is a conceptual framework which enables a modified Fisherian analysis.

Capital Budgeting Techniques for Forestry: A Review

1979 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Fortson ◽  
Richard C. Field
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Key Steps

Abstract The key steps in the financial analysis of proposed capital expenditures are presented as well as the conditions under which the net present value or internal rate of return is the appropriate decision criterion. Factors which affect the choice of the discounting interest rate for cash flows are also reviewed.

scholarly journals Capital budgeting practices in South Africa: A review

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Correia
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Significant Growth ◽  
Internal Rate

This paper reviews the capital budgeting survey literature in South Africa over the period 1972 to 2008. The survey evidence indicates a significant growth in Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods and a fall in the use of other methods. In particular, there has been growth in the use of Net Present Value (NPV). Yet, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) technique remains the primary method used in practice despite some serious drawbacks. Larger companies are more likely to use DCF methods. There has been a significant growth in the use of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. However, there is little use of sophisticated risk analysis tools such as Monte Carlo simulation, and decision trees. Although financial theory predicates the use of risk adjusted discount rates, surveys indicate that the majority of companies use a single firm discount rate. Companies have increasingly used inflation-adjusted cash flows but the process of ranking mutually exclusive projects is not aligned with finance theory. There is limited use of the Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) method and DCF dominant companies do not outperform non-DCF dominant companies. The most important phase of project evaluation is the project definition and cash flow estimation phase and yet research studies have focused mainly on the financial analysis and project selection phase.

scholarly journals Capital Budgeting pada Proyek Teknologi 5G

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Tomy Aji Nuraidi
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
A Value ◽  
5G Network ◽  
Network Investment

The development of digital business and internet technology in the telecommunications industry in Indonesia became a challenge for telecommunications companies, one of which is PT. Telkom Tbk. One study of the strategies that the author carefully regarding the analysis of Capital Budgeting on the 5th Generation (5G) technology project on PT. Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. and PT Telkomsel Tbk that using the cost benefit method. This study aims to provide a capital budgeting analysis to develop 5G network investment in Indonesia and assess investment feasibility. By using Payback Period calculation, Net Cash Flow and Internal Rate of Return can be identified the potential investment feasibility based on the value of the calculation and then the investment feasibility can be compared. The results show that the calculation of the payback period yields a value of 1.63 years. Whereas the calculation of net present value yields a value of Rp. 189,267 Trillion. For the average rate of return method, the ARR value is 1490.96%. Based on this value, it can be obtained that the 5G network investment project is feasible to be carried out by PT Telkom Tbk and PT Telkomsel companies.  Perkembangan bisnis digital dan teknologi internet pada industry telekomunikasi di Indonesia menjadi tantangan tersendiri bagi perusahaan telekomunikasi salah satunya PT. Telkom Tbk. Salah satu kajian strategi yang penulis teliti mengenai analisis Capital Budgeting pada proyek teknologi 5 th Generation (5G) PT. Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. dan PT Telkomsel Tbk dengan menggunakan metode cost benefit. Penelitian ini bertujuan memberikan analisis capital budgeting guna mengembangkan investasi jaringan 5G di negara Indonesia dan menilai kelayakan investasi. Dengan menggunakan perhitungan Payback Period, Net Cash Flow dan Internal Rate of Return dapat diidentifikasi potensi kelayakan investasi berdasarkan nilai perhitungan tersebut dan selanjutnya dapat dibandingakan kelayakan investasi. Hasil menunjukkan untuk perhitungan payback period menghiasilkan nilai 1.63 tahun. Sedangkan perhitungan net present value menghasilkan nilai RP 189.267 Triliun. Untuk metode average rate of return nilai ARR adalah 1490,96%. Dengan berdasarkan nilai tersebut dapat diperoleh bahwa proyek investasi jaringan 5G layak dilakuakn perusahaan PT Telkom Tbk dan PT Telkomsel.

scholarly journals Capital budgeting practices used by selected listed South African firms

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Hall ◽  
Solly Millard
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Industrial Firms ◽  
Budgeting Process ◽  
Local Research

This article investigates the application of capital budgeting techniques and the incorporation of risk into the capital budgeting process among a sample of South African industrial firms listed on the JSE Securities Exchange for at least ten years. Previous international and local research on this topic indicated a preference for the internal rate of return (IRR) as a capital budgeting method over the net present value (NPV), and that risk incorporation was relatively rarely incorporated into the capital budgeting process. The results of this study indicate that the NPV is just as popular as, and sometimes more so than, the IRR. Furthermore, compared to previous studies, risk is incorporated into evaluating capital budgeting projects more often. Sensitivity analysis is the most popular method, but adjustments to the cash flows and discount rate are becoming more popular. During the last decade the use of non-financial criteria to accept or reject a project has also increased in South Africa.

TINJAUAN STUDI KELAYAKAN USAHA BADAN USAHA MILIK DESA (NAGARI) KAMANG HILIA SEJAHTERA KENAGARIAN KAMANG HILIA, KECAMATAN KAMANG MAGEK, KABUPATEN AGAM, PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Halkadri Fitra ◽  
Salma Taqwa ◽  
Charoline Cheisviyanny ◽  
Abel Tasman ◽  
Nurzi Sebrina
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat kelayakan aspek keuangan usaha grosir sembako Badan Usaha Milik Desa (Nagari) Kamang Hilia Sejahtera di Kenagarian Kamang Hilia Kecamatan Kamang Magek Kabupaten Agam Provinsi Sumatera Barat yang dilakukan pada tahun 2018. Penelitian bersifat deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menggunakan metode cash flow analysis, payback period, net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return, dan average rate of return. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai net cash flow Badan Usaha Milik Desa (Nagari) Kamang Hilia Sejahtera adalah positif yaitu Rp.21.774.000, nilai payback period adalah 1,15 tahun, nilai net present value positif sebesar Rp.10.680.034,47, nilai profitability index adalah positif 1,37, sedangkan nilai internal rate of return adalah 46,7% dan nilai average rate of return adalah 57,23%. Berdasarkan standar penilaian maka semua metode yang digunakan memberikan kesimpulan bahwa usaha grosir sembako milik Badan Usaha Milik Desa (Nagari) Kamang Hilia Sejahtera dalam kategori layak untuk dilaksanakan.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document