1—by Captain A. Wepster

1963 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-398

In 1960 Hanssen and James described to the Institute a system developed and used by the United States Hydrographic Office for selecting the optimum track for transoceanic crossings by applying long-range predictions of winds, waves and currents to a knowledge of how the routed vessel reacts to these variables. The paper (Journal, 13, 253) described how, over a period of two years, an average reduction in travel time of 14 hours was achieved over 1000 optimum routes.In the present papers, presented at an Institute meeting held in London on 19 April, Captain Wepster of the Holland-America Line first of all goes into the benefits which effective ship routing offers the ship operator and then describes the results of the experimental routing programme undertaken by his Company in association with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Mr. Verploegh of that Institute then discusses the programme from the forecaster's point of view.

1960 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
George L. Hanssen ◽  
Richard W. James

The paper describes the system developed and used by the United States Hydrographic Office for selecting the optimum track for transoceanic crossings by applying long-range predictions of wind, waves and currents to a knowledge of how the routed vessel reacts to these variables. Over a period of two years, over 1000 optimum ship routes were provided to one authority, with an average reduction in travel time of 14 hours.


2018 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 256-265
Author(s):  
Konstantin V. Simonov ◽  
Stanislav P. Mitrakhovich

The article examines the possibility of transfer to bipartisan system in Russia. The authors assess the benefits of the two-party system that include first of all the ensuring of actual political competition and authority alternativeness with simultaneous separation of minute non-system forces that may contribute to the country destabilization. The authors analyze the accompanying risks and show that the concept of the two-party system as the catalyst of elite schism is mostly exaggerated. The authors pay separate attention to the experience of bipartisan system implementation in other countries, including the United States. They offer detailed analysis of the generated concept of the bipartisanship crisis and show that this point of view doesn’t quite agree with the current political practice. The authors also examine the foreign experience of the single-party system. They show that the success of the said system is mostly insubstantial, besides many of such systems have altered into more complex structures, while commentators very often use not the actual information but the established myths about this or that country. The authors also offer practical advice regarding the potential technologies of transition to the bipartisan system in Russia.


2021 ◽  
Vol 109 (2) ◽  
pp. 344-351
Author(s):  
Joshua N. Herb ◽  
Rachael T. Wolff ◽  
Philip M. McDaniel ◽  
G. Mark Holmes ◽  
Trevor J. Royce ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Zhu ◽  
Xinyue Ye ◽  
Steven Manson

AbstractWe describe the use of network modeling to capture the shifting spatiotemporal nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. The most common approach to tracking COVID-19 cases over time and space is to examine a series of maps that provide snapshots of the pandemic. A series of snapshots can convey the spatial nature of cases but often rely on subjective interpretation to assess how the pandemic is shifting in severity through time and space. We present a novel application of network optimization to a standard series of snapshots to better reveal how the spatial centres of the pandemic shifted spatially over time in the mainland United States under a mix of interventions. We find a global spatial shifting pattern with stable pandemic centres and both local and long-range interactions. Metrics derived from the daily nature of spatial shifts are introduced to help evaluate the pandemic situation at regional scales. We also highlight the value of reviewing pandemics through local spatial shifts to uncover dynamic relationships among and within regions, such as spillover and concentration among states. This new way of examining the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of network-based spatial shifts offers new story lines in understanding how the pandemic spread in geography.


2021 ◽  
Vol 704 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-104
Author(s):  
Maria Raczyńska

The article describes and explains a prior centric Bayesian forecasting model for the 2020 US elections.The model is based on the The Economist forecasting project, but strongly differs from it. From the technical point of view, it uses R and Stan programming and Stan software. The article’s focus is on theoretical decisions made in the process of constructing the model and outcomes. It describes why Bayesian models are used and how they are used to predict US presidential elections.


1918 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denys P. Myers

The shade of distinction sought to be shown by the title of this paper may require explanation. Imperfect wording involves either carelessness or ignorance; bad faith indicates dishonesty; nonexecution or disregard implies laxness in the government, if not carelessness; adverse or hostile municipal or judicial action connotes lack of coordination between the internal and external affairs of the State. It follows that such adverse action may be considered from a practical point of view as almost a normal kind of violence against international contracts. It is not to be excused on that account, but it may be considered as a frictional incident almost inseparable under some conditions from the existence of a State. Given either a government of definitely separated elements, such as the United States, or a government without much stability, or a State founded on a type of civilization different from the European order, and this sort of violation of treaty may be forecasted with certainty. Fortunately, however, the instances that cause contractual friction of this sort are of the grosser kinds of personal violence, or are commercial; they are not of a political character, cannot be said to involve policy, and only by a stretch of the imagination involve the tweedledum and tweedledee of international relations, “national honor and vital interest.” They are consequently extremely susceptible to simple and orderly solution.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Alireza Jalilifar ◽  
Yasamin Moradi

Today, studying tourism discourse has become widespread among scholars in the field of text analysis. However, few, if any, studies which have addressed the language of tourism have examined the verbal content of travel brochures from the point of view of the appraisal model. The major questions addressed in this study pertain to Graduation strategies as part of appraisal strategies in the discourse of tourism as well as the lexico-grammatical resources for the coding of these strategies in texts. The dataset comprised 50 e-brochures released by tour operators across the United States within the period 2012 to 2013. First, the data were examined quantitatively to identify the statistical variations in utilizing Graduation strategies in tourist brochures. The preferences for lexico-grammatical resources for the construal of these strategies were also illustrated in light of a qualitative analysis. The results of the study revealed that the discourse of travel brochures is loaded with Graduation strategies. The subsystems within the system of Graduation were shown to serve as strong tools in promoting various aspects of tourist destinations such as the number and distribution of tourist sites over an area.


1968 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1849-1877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chander ◽  
L. E. Alsop ◽  
Jack Oliver

ABSTRACT Using the shear-coupled PL wave hypothesis of Oliver as a basis, a method is developed for computing synthetic long-period seismograms between the onset of the initial S-type body phase and the beginning of surface waves. Comparison of observed and synthetic siesmograms shows that this hypothesis can explain, in considerable detail, most of the waves with periods greater than about 20 sec recorded during this interval. The synthetic seismograms are computed easily on a small digital computer; they resemble the observed seismograms much more closely than the synthetic seismograms obtained through the superposition of normal modes of the Earth that have been reported in the literature. The synthesis of shear-coupled PL waves depends on a precise knowledge of the phase-velocity curve of the PL wave and travel-time curves of shear waves. Hence, in principle, if one of these quantities is well-known the other can be determined by this method. Phase-velocity curves of the PL wave are determined for the Baltic shield, the Russian platform, the Canadian shield, the United States, and the western North-Atlantic ocean, on the assumption that J-B travel-time curves of shear waves apply to these areas. These dispersion curves show the type of variations to be expected on the basis of the current knowledge of the crustal structures in these areas. Examples are presented to show that J-B travel-times of shear waves along paths between Kenai Peninsula, Alaska and Palisades, equatorial mid-Atlantic ridge and Palisades, and Kurile Islands and Uppsala need to be revised. Shear-wave travel-time curves that are not unique for reasons explained in the study but that give synthetic seismograms in agreement with the observed seismograms were obtained. The new S curves are compared with the J-B travel-time curves for S; and they all predict S waves to arrive later than the time given by J-B tables for epicentral distances smaller than about 30°. The new S curve for the Alaska to Palisades path appears to agree with one of the branches of a multi-branched S curve proposed recently by Ibrahim and Nuttli for the ‘average United States’ insofar as travel-times are concerned, but there are some differences in the slopes of the two curves.


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