Changing social contact patterns under tropical weather conditions relevant for the spread of infectious diseases

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.-C. CHAN ◽  
Y.-C. FU ◽  
J.-S. HWANG
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Tropics

SUMMARYWeather conditions and social contact patterns provide some clues to understanding year-round influenza epidemics in the tropics. Recent studies suggest that contact patterns may direct influenza transmission in the tropics as critically as the aerosol channel in temperate regions. To examine this argument, we analysed a representative nationwide survey dataset of contact diaries with comprehensive weather data in Taiwan. Methods we used included model-free estimated relative changes in reproduction number, R0; relative changes in the number of contacts; and model-based estimated relative changes in mean contacts using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Overall, social contact patterns clearly differ by demographics (such as age groups), personal idiosyncrasies (such as personality and happiness), and social institutions (such as the division of weekdays and weekend days). Further, weather conditions also turn out to be closely linked to contact patterns under various circumstances. Fleeting contacts, for example, tend to diminish when it rains hard on weekdays, while physical contacts also decrease during weekend days with heavy rain. Frequent social contacts on weekdays and under good weather conditions, including high temperature and low absolute humidity, all might facilitate the transmission of infectious diseases in tropical regions.

scholarly journals Social Contact Patterns in Vietnam and Implications for the Control of Infectious Diseases

PLoS ONE ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. e16965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Horby ◽  
Pham Quang Thai ◽  
Niel Hens ◽  
Nguyen Thi Thu Yen ◽  
Le Quynh Mai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of social contact patterns related to infectious diseases in the Guangdong Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulin Huang ◽  
Xiaoshuang Cai ◽  
Bing Zhang ◽  
Guanghu Zhu ◽  
Tao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity

scholarly journals Quantifying social contact patterns in Minnesota during Stay-at-Home social distancing order

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey M Dorelien ◽  
Narmada Venkateswaran ◽  
Jiuchen Deng ◽  
Kelly Searle ◽  
Eva Enns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
At Home

SARS-CoV-2 is primarily transmitted through person-to-person contacts. It is important to collect information on age-specific contact patterns because SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility, transmission, and morbidity vary by age. To reduce risk of infection, social distancing measures have been implemented. Social contact data, which identify who has contact with whom especially by age and place are needed to identify high-risk groups and serve to inform the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We estimated and used negative binomial regression to compare the number of daily contacts during the first wave (April-May 2020) of the Minnesota Social Contact Study, based on respondents age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, and other demographic characteristics. We used information on age and location of contacts to generate age-structured contact matrices. Finally, we compared the age-structured contact matrices during the stay-at-home order to pre-pandemic matrices. During the state-wide stay-home order, the mean daily number of contacts was 5.6. We found significant variation in contacts by age, gender, race, and region. Adults between 40 and 50 years had the highest number of contacts. Respondents in Black households had 2.1 more contacts than respondent in White households, while respondents in Asian or Pacific Islander households had approximately the same number of contacts as respondent in White households. Respondents in Hispanic households had approximately two fewer contacts compared to White households. Most contacts were with other individuals in the same age group. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the biggest declines occurred in contacts between children, and contacts between those over 60 with those below 60.

scholarly journals A Nice Day for an Infection? Weather Conditions and Social Contact Patterns Relevant to Influenza Transmission

PLoS ONE ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. e48695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lander Willem ◽  
Kim Van Kerckhove ◽  
Dennis L. Chao ◽  
Niel Hens ◽  
Philippe Beutels
Keyword(s):  
Social Contact ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Influenza Transmission

scholarly journals Social Contact Patterns in an Individual-based Simulator for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases (Stride)

2017 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 2438-2442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise Kuylen ◽  
Sean Stijven ◽  
Jan Broeckhove ◽  
Lander Willem
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns

scholarly journals Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Trentini ◽  
Adriana Manna ◽  
Nicoletta Balbo ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
The Government

Background After a rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Italy during the fall of 2020, the government introduced a three-tiered restriction system aimed at increasing physical distancing. The Ministry of Health, after periodic epidemiological risk assessments, assigned a tier to each of the 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces (AP). It is still unclear to what extent these different measures altered mixing patterns and how quickly the population adapted their social interactions to continuous changes in restrictions. Methods and findings We conducted a survey between July 2020 and March 2021 to monitor changes in social contact patterns among individuals in the metropolitan city of Milan, Italy, which was hardly hit by the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The number of contacts during periods characterized by different levels of restrictions was analyzed through negative binomial regression models and age-specific contact matrices were estimated under the different tiers. Relying on the empirically estimated mixing patterns, we quantified relative changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential associated with the different tiers. As tighter restrictions were implemented during the fall of 2020, a progressive reduction in the mean number of contacts recorded by study participants was observed: from 16.4% under mild restrictions (yellow tier), to 45.6% under strong restrictions (red tier). Higher restrictions levels were also found to increase the relative contribution of contacts occurring within the household. The SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number was estimated to decrease by 18.7% (95%CI: 4.6-30.8), 33.4% (95%CI: 22.7-43.2), and 50.2% (95%CI: 40.9-57.7) under the yellow, orange, and red tiers, respectively. Conclusions Our results give an important quantification of the expected contribution of different restriction levels in shaping social contacts and decreasing the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. These estimates can find an operational use in anticipating the effect that the implementation of these tiered restriction can have on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number under an evolving epidemiological situation.

scholarly journals Limits of lockdown: characterising essential contacts during strict physical distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Amy Thomas ◽  
Leon Danon ◽  
Hannah Christensen ◽  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Daniel Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Inequalities ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Contact Patterns

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exposed health inequalities within countries and globally. The fundamental determining factor behind an individual’s risk of infection is the number of social contacts they make. In many countries, physical distancing measures have been implemented to control transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), reducing social contacts to a minimum. We characterise social contacts to understand the drivers and inequalities behind differential risks for aiding in planning SARS-CoV-2 mitigation programmes. Methods: We utilised an existing longitudinal birth cohort (n=6807) to explore social contact patterns and behaviours when strict physical distancing measures were in place during the UK’s first lockdown in March-May 2020. We used an online questionnaire to capture information on participant contact patterns, health, SARS-CoV-2 exposure, behaviours and impacts resulting from COVID-19. We quantified daily contacts and examined the association between covariates and numbers of daily total contacts using a negative binomial regression model. Results: A daily average of 3.7 [standard deviation = 10.6] total contacts outside the household were reported. Essential workers, specifically those in healthcare, had 4.5 times as many contacts as non-essential workers [incident rate ratio = 4.42 (95% CI: 3.88–5.04)], whilst essential workers in other sectors, mainly teaching and the police force had three times as many contacts [IRR = 2.84 (2.58–3.13)]. The number of individuals in a household, which largely reflects number of children, increases essential social contacts by 40%. Self-isolation effectively reduces numbers of contacts outside of the home, but not entirely. Conclusions: Contextualising contact patterns has highlighted the health inequalities exposed by COVID-19, as well as potential sources of infection risk and transmission. Together, these findings will aid the interpretation of epidemiological data and impact the design of effective control strategies for SARS-CoV-2, such as vaccination, testing and contact tracing.

scholarly journals Field Evaluation of Five-Level Heat Dissipation Models under PV Array Structure Installed in the Tropics

2015 ◽  
Vol 789-790 ◽  
pp. 416-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Effendy Ya’acob ◽  
H. Hizam ◽  
Y. Hashimoto ◽  
B. Adam ◽  
N.F. Othman
Keyword(s):  
Heat Dissipation ◽  
Field Evaluation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Data Sampling ◽  
Contour Analysis ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Pv Array ◽  
Testing Condition ◽  
The Tropics

The intermittent drawbacks due to fluctuating temperature factor inside photovoltaic (PV) cells have clearly affected the overall energy performance especially in stochastic weather conditions. Temperature element in the tropical regions is a crucial factor to be determined based on Standard Testing Condition (STC) and Nominal Operating Cell Temperature (NOCT) correlations. Based on the crucial implication of heat dissipation, this study shares some insights of five level heat contour covering the surrounding temperature, PV surface temperature, PV bottom temperature and 2-level of two feet height located under PV array. The field data in real-time approach has been brought up in line to support the energy balance modelling for PV applications with localized heat contour analysis using statistical evaluations. The regression analysis of the 3471 data sampling for the period of 5 days (7AM till 7 PM) produces very good results with correlation coefficient, R2 = 0.97.

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