scholarly journals Quantifying social contact patterns in Minnesota during Stay-at-Home social distancing order

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey M Dorelien ◽  
Narmada Venkateswaran ◽  
Jiuchen Deng ◽  
Kelly Searle ◽  
Eva Enns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
At Home

SARS-CoV-2 is primarily transmitted through person-to-person contacts. It is important to collect information on age-specific contact patterns because SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility, transmission, and morbidity vary by age. To reduce risk of infection, social distancing measures have been implemented. Social contact data, which identify who has contact with whom especially by age and place are needed to identify high-risk groups and serve to inform the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We estimated and used negative binomial regression to compare the number of daily contacts during the first wave (April-May 2020) of the Minnesota Social Contact Study, based on respondents age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, and other demographic characteristics. We used information on age and location of contacts to generate age-structured contact matrices. Finally, we compared the age-structured contact matrices during the stay-at-home order to pre-pandemic matrices. During the state-wide stay-home order, the mean daily number of contacts was 5.6. We found significant variation in contacts by age, gender, race, and region. Adults between 40 and 50 years had the highest number of contacts. Respondents in Black households had 2.1 more contacts than respondent in White households, while respondents in Asian or Pacific Islander households had approximately the same number of contacts as respondent in White households. Respondents in Hispanic households had approximately two fewer contacts compared to White households. Most contacts were with other individuals in the same age group. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the biggest declines occurred in contacts between children, and contacts between those over 60 with those below 60.

scholarly journals Investigating the relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Trentini ◽  
Adriana Manna ◽  
Nicoletta Balbo ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
The Government

Background After a rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Italy during the fall of 2020, the government introduced a three-tiered restriction system aimed at increasing physical distancing. The Ministry of Health, after periodic epidemiological risk assessments, assigned a tier to each of the 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces (AP). It is still unclear to what extent these different measures altered mixing patterns and how quickly the population adapted their social interactions to continuous changes in restrictions. Methods and findings We conducted a survey between July 2020 and March 2021 to monitor changes in social contact patterns among individuals in the metropolitan city of Milan, Italy, which was hardly hit by the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The number of contacts during periods characterized by different levels of restrictions was analyzed through negative binomial regression models and age-specific contact matrices were estimated under the different tiers. Relying on the empirically estimated mixing patterns, we quantified relative changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential associated with the different tiers. As tighter restrictions were implemented during the fall of 2020, a progressive reduction in the mean number of contacts recorded by study participants was observed: from 16.4% under mild restrictions (yellow tier), to 45.6% under strong restrictions (red tier). Higher restrictions levels were also found to increase the relative contribution of contacts occurring within the household. The SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number was estimated to decrease by 18.7% (95%CI: 4.6-30.8), 33.4% (95%CI: 22.7-43.2), and 50.2% (95%CI: 40.9-57.7) under the yellow, orange, and red tiers, respectively. Conclusions Our results give an important quantification of the expected contribution of different restriction levels in shaping social contacts and decreasing the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. These estimates can find an operational use in anticipating the effect that the implementation of these tiered restriction can have on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number under an evolving epidemiological situation.

scholarly journals Statewide Interventions and Covid-19 Mortality in the United States: An Observational Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadir Yehya ◽  
Atheendar Venkataramani ◽  
Michael O Harhay
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
State Level ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
The United States ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Test Model ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Social Distancing

ABSTRACT Background Social distancing is encouraged to mitigate viral spreading during outbreaks. However, the association between distancing and patient-centered outcomes in Covid-19 has not been demonstrated. In the United States social distancing orders are implemented at the state level with variable timing of onset. Emergency declarations and school closures were two early statewide interventions. Methods To determine whether later distancing interventions were associated with higher mortality, we performed a state-level analysis in 55,146 Covid-19 non-survivors. We tested the association between timing of emergency declarations and school closures with 28-day mortality using multivariable negative binomial regression. Day 1 for each state was set to when they recorded ≥ 10 deaths. We performed sensitivity analyses to test model assumptions. Results At time of analysis, 37 of 50 states had ≥ 10 deaths and 28 follow-up days. Both later emergency declaration (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR] 1.05 per day delay, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.09, p=0.040) and later school closure (aMRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.008) were associated with more deaths. When assessing all 50 states and setting day 1 to the day a state recorded its first death, delays in declaring an emergency (aMRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.020) or closing schools (aMRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.09, p<0.001) were associated with more deaths. Results were unchanged when excluding New York and New Jersey. Conclusions Later statewide emergency declarations and school closure were associated with higher Covid-19 mortality. Each day of delay increased mortality risk 5 to 6%.

Social contact patterns and leprosy disease: a case-control study in Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
pp. 573-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. G. FEENSTRA ◽  
Q. NAHAR ◽  
D. PAHAN ◽  
L. OSKAM ◽  
J. H. RICHARDUS
Keyword(s):  
Case Control Study ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Endemic Areas ◽  
Control Study

SUMMARYSocioeconomic and culturally defined social contact patterns are expected to be an important determinant in the continuing transmission of Mycobacterium leprae in leprosy-endemic areas. In a case-control study in two districts in Bangladesh, we assessed the association between social contact patterns and the risk of acquiring clinical leprosy. Social contacts of 90 recently diagnosed patients were compared to those of 199 controls. Leprosy was associated with a more intensive social contact pattern in the home [odds ratio (OR) 1·09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·00–1·19, P = 0·043] and in the nearby neighbourhood (OR 1·07, 95% CI 1·03–1·11, P = 0·001). Although it is known that M. leprae spreads most easily within households of infected persons, in endemic areas social contacts within the neighbourhood, village or urban ward, also appear to be important for transmission. We advise that disease control measures in leprosy-endemic areas should not be limited to households, but include high-risk groups in the nearby neighbourhood of patients.

scholarly journals Loneliness, physical activity and mental health during Covid-19: a longitudinal analysis of depression and anxiety in adults over 50 between 2015 and 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Byron Creese ◽  
Zunera Khan ◽  
William Henley ◽  
Siobhan O’Dwyer ◽  
Anne Corbett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective: Loneliness and physical activity are important targets for research into the impact of COVID-19 because they have established links with mental health, could be exacerbated by social distancing policies and are potentially modifiable. In this study we aimed to identify whether loneliness and physical activity were associated with worse mental health during a period of mandatory social distancing in the UK. Design: Population-based observation cohort study. Setting: Mental health data collected online during COVID-19 from an existing sample of adults aged 50 and over taking part in a longitudinal study of ageing. All had comparable annual data collected between 2015 and 2019. Participants: 3,281 participants aged 50 and over. Measurements: Trajectories of depression (measured by PHQ-9) and anxiety (measured by GAD-7) between 2015 and 2020 were analyzed with respect to loneliness, physical activity levels and a number of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Results: In 2020, PHQ-9 score for loneliness, adjusted for covariates, was 3.23 (95% CI: 3.01-3.44), an increase of around one point on all previous years in this group and 2 points higher than people not rated lonely, whose score did not change in 2020 (1.22, 95% CI: 1.12-1.32). PHQ-9 was 2.60, 95% CI: 2.43-2.78 in people with decreased physical activity, an increase of 0.5 on previous years. In contrast, PHQ-9 in 2020 for people whose physical activity had not decreased was 1.66, 95% CI: 1.56-1.75, similar to previous years. A similar relationship was observed for GAD-7 though the absolute burden of symptoms lower. Conclusion: After accounting for pre-COVID-19 trends, we show that experiencing loneliness and decreased physical activity are risk factors for worsening mental health during the pandemic. Our findings highlight the need to examine policies which target these potentially modifiable risk factors.

Neighborhoods, Activity Spaces, and the Span of Adolescent Exposures

2021 ◽  
pp. 000312242199421
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Browning ◽  
Catherine A. Calder ◽  
Bethany Boettner ◽  
Jake Tarrence ◽  
Kori Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Youth ◽  
Neighborhood Effects ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Urban Sociology ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
School Absence ◽  
Health And Development ◽  
At Home

Since the inception of urban sociology, the “neighborhood” has served as the dominant context to capture developmentally significant youth experiences beyond the home. Yet no large-scale study has examined patterns of exposure to the most commonly used operationalization of neighborhood—the census tract—among urban youth. Using smartphone GPS data from the Adolescent Health and Development in Context study ( N = 1,405), we estimate the amount of time youth spend in residential neighborhoods and consider explanations for variation in neighborhood exposure. On average, youth (ages 11 to 17) spend 5.7 percent of their waking-time in their neighborhood but not at home, 60 percent at home, and 34.3 percent outside their neighborhood. Multilevel negative binomial regression models indicate that residence in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods is associated with less time in one’s neighborhood. Higher levels of local violence and the absence of a neighborhood school are negatively associated with time in-neighborhood and mediate the concentrated disadvantage effect. Fractional multinomial logit models indicate that higher violence is linked with increased time at home, and school absence is associated with increased outside-neighborhood time. Theoretical development and empirical research on neighborhood effects should incorporate findings on the extent and nature of neighborhood and broader activity space exposures among urban youth.

scholarly journals Predicting the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number using bulk contact data from mobile phones

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (31) ◽  
pp. e2026731118
Author(s):  
Sten Rüdiger ◽  
Stefan Konigorski ◽  
Alexander Rakowski ◽  
Jonathan Antonio Edelman ◽  
Detlef Zernick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Over the last months, cases of SARS-CoV-2 surged repeatedly in many countries but could often be controlled with nonpharmaceutical interventions including social distancing. We analyzed deidentified Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data from 1.15 to 1.4 million cell phones in Germany per day between March and November 2020 to identify encounters between individuals and statistically evaluate contact behavior. Using graph sampling theory, we estimated the contact index (CX), a metric for number and heterogeneity of contacts. We found that CX, and not the total number of contacts, is an accurate predictor for the effective reproduction number R derived from case numbers. A high correlation between CX and R recorded more than 2 wk later allows assessment of social behavior well before changes in case numbers become detectable. By construction, the CX quantifies the role of superspreading and permits assigning risks to specific contact behavior. We provide a critical CX value beyond which R is expected to rise above 1 and propose to use that value to leverage the social-distancing interventions for the coming months.

Abstract P91: Excess Cerebrovascular Mortality in the U.S. During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richa Sharma ◽  
Lindsey Kuohn ◽  
Daniel Weinberger ◽  
Joshua Warren ◽  
Lauren H Sansing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
State Level ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
The State ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Stroke Death ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Health Statistic

Introduction: The magnitude and drivers of excess cerebrovascular-specific mortality during the coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We aim to quantify excess stroke-related death and characterize its association with psychosocial factors and emerging COVID-19 related mortality. Methods: U.S. and state-level excess cerebrovascular deaths from January-May 2020 were quantified by Poisson regression models built using National Center for Health Statistic (NCHS) data. Weekly excess cerebrovascular deaths in the U.S. were analyzed as functions of time-varying, weekly stroke-related EMS calls and weekly COVID-19 deaths by univariable linear regression. A state-level negative binomial regression analysis was performed to determine the association between excess cerebrovascular deaths and social distancing (degree of change in mobility per Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports) during the height of the pandemic after the first COVID-19 death (February 29, 2020), adjusting for cumulative COVID-19 related deaths and completeness of deaths attributable to COVID-19 in NCHS. Findings: There were 918 more cerebrovascular deaths than expected from January 1-May 16 th , 2020 in the U.S. Excess cerebrovascular mortality occurred during every week between March 28-May 2 nd , 2020, up to 7.8% during the week of April 18 th . Decreased stroke-related EMS calls were associated with excess stroke deaths one (β -0.06, 95% CI -0.11, -0.02) and two weeks (β -0.08, 95% CI -0.12, -0.04) later. There was no significant association between weekly excess stroke death and COVID-19 death. Twenty-three states and NYC experienced excess cerebrovascular mortality during the pandemic height. At the state level, a 10% increase in social distancing was associated with a 4.3% increase in stroke deaths (IRR 1.043, 95% CI 1.001–1.085) after adjusting for COVID-19 mortality. Conclusions: Excess U.S. cerebrovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were observed with decreases in stroke-related EMS calls nationally and less mobility at the state level. Public health measures are needed to identify and counter the reticence to seeking medical care for acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Changing social contact patterns under tropical weather conditions relevant for the spread of infectious diseases

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.-C. CHAN ◽  
Y.-C. FU ◽  
J.-S. HWANG
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Tropics

SUMMARYWeather conditions and social contact patterns provide some clues to understanding year-round influenza epidemics in the tropics. Recent studies suggest that contact patterns may direct influenza transmission in the tropics as critically as the aerosol channel in temperate regions. To examine this argument, we analysed a representative nationwide survey dataset of contact diaries with comprehensive weather data in Taiwan. Methods we used included model-free estimated relative changes in reproduction number, R0; relative changes in the number of contacts; and model-based estimated relative changes in mean contacts using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Overall, social contact patterns clearly differ by demographics (such as age groups), personal idiosyncrasies (such as personality and happiness), and social institutions (such as the division of weekdays and weekend days). Further, weather conditions also turn out to be closely linked to contact patterns under various circumstances. Fleeting contacts, for example, tend to diminish when it rains hard on weekdays, while physical contacts also decrease during weekend days with heavy rain. Frequent social contacts on weekdays and under good weather conditions, including high temperature and low absolute humidity, all might facilitate the transmission of infectious diseases in tropical regions.

scholarly journals Perceived Benefits Matter the Most in COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors: Empirical Evidence from Okara District, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6772
Author(s):  
Gulzar H. Shah ◽  
Ansar Ali Faraz ◽  
Hina Khan ◽  
Kristie C. Waterfield
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Cluster Sampling ◽  
Perceived Benefits ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Prevention Behavior ◽  
Behavior Scale ◽  
The City

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has affected the social determinants of health, worsening health inequities and deteriorating healthcare capacities around the globe. The objective of this study is to investigate the COVID-19 prevention behaviors within the framework of the Health Belief Model in the city of Depalpur in the Okara District of Pakistan in May 2020. Using an observational, cross-sectional, and quantitative study design, a face-to-face field survey was conducted during the epidemic of COVID-19 in district Okara, Pakistan. A sample of 500 adults was selected from the city of Depalpur the in Okara district of Pakistan, using a two-stage sampling design with cluster sampling in stage one and systematic random sampling at stage two. A COVID-19 prevention behavior scale was computed based on twelve dichotomous items. Descriptive statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and negative binomial regression analyses were performed. The most common prevention behavior among study participants was avoiding going for walks in the parks (81.0%), followed by not leaving home during the lockdown (72.6%), and washing hands every day with soap and water for 20 s after going out of their home (64.0%). Fewer people exhibited prevention behaviors such as social distancing (e.g., staying at least six feet away from other people) which in the EU was recommended to be a minimum of 1.5–2 m (44.4%) and following all of the basic protective measures (e.g., hand washing, use of a face covering in public, social distancing) in order to protect against COVID-19 (33.0%). The results from the negative binomial regression analysis showed that after controlling for the other HBM constructs and sociodemographic factors, only the perceived benefits of preventative actions showed significant association with the prevention behavior scale (IRR, 1.16; CI, 1.061–1.276; p < 0.001). The study findings show that public health interventions attempting to control the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan may want to affect a change in people’s perceived benefits of preventative actions through mass awareness-raising campaigns.

scholarly journals The Frequency and Context of Snacking among Children: An Objective Analysis Using Wearable Cameras

Nutrients ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Ryan Gage ◽  
Martin Girling-Butcher ◽  
Ester Joe ◽  
Moira Smith ◽  
Cliona Ni Mhurchu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Eating Behaviour ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Wearable Cameras ◽  
Eating Occasions ◽  
Buying Behaviour ◽  
Main Meals

Snacking is a common eating behaviour, but there is little objective data about children’s snacking. We aimed to determine the frequency and context of children’s snacking (n = 158; mean age = 12.6 years) by ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic deprivation and body mass index (BMI) children. Participants wore wearable cameras that passively captured images of their surroundings every seven seconds. Images (n = 739,162) were coded for snacking episodes, defined as eating occasions in between main meals. Contextual factors analysed included: snacking location, food source, timing, social contact and screen use. Rates of total, discretionary (not recommended for consumption) and healthful (recommended for consumption) snacking were calculated using negative binomial regression. On average, children consumed 8.2 (95%CI 7.4, 9.1) snacks per day, of which 5.2 (95%CI 4.6, 5.9) were discretionary foods/beverages. Children consumed more discretionary snacks than healthful snacks in each setting and at all times, including 15.0× more discretionary snacks in public spaces and 2.4× more discretionary snacks in schools. Most snacks (68.9%) were sourced from home. Girls consumed more total, discretionary and healthful snacks than boys, and Māori and Pacific consumed fewer healthful snacks than New Zealand (NZ) Europeans. Results show that children snack frequently, and that most snacking involves discretionary food items. Our findings suggest targeting home buying behaviour and environmental changes to support healthy snacking choices.

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