Statistical tests of differential susceptibility: Performance, limitations, and improvements

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 1267-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Del Giudice
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Differential Susceptibility ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
False Negatives ◽  
Interaction Index ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Highly Sensitive

AbstractStatistical tests of differential susceptibility have become standard in the empirical literature, and are routinely used to adjudicate between alternative developmental hypotheses. However, their performance and limitations have never been systematically investigated. In this paper I employ Monte Carlo simulations to explore the functioning of three commonly used tests proposed by Roisman et al. (2012). Simulations showed that critical tests of differential susceptibility require considerably larger samples than standard power calculations would suggest. The results also showed that existing criteria for differential susceptibility based on the proportion of interaction index (i.e., values between .40 and .60) are especially likely to produce false negatives and highly sensitive to assumptions about interaction symmetry. As an initial response to these problems, I propose a revised test based on a broader window of proportion of interaction index values (between .20 and .80). Additional simulations showed that the revised test outperforms existing tests of differential susceptibility, considerably improving detection with little effect on the rate of false positives. I conclude by noting the limitations of a purely statistical approach to differential susceptibility, and discussing the implications of the present results for the interpretation of published findings and the design of future studies in this area.

scholarly journals Polygenic differential susceptibility to prenatal adversity

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (02) ◽  
pp. 439-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay Belsky ◽  
Irina Pokhvisneva ◽  
Anu Sathyan Sathyapalan Rema ◽  
Birit F.P. Broekman ◽  
Michael Pluess ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Network ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Differential Susceptibility ◽  
Interaction Index ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Developmental Problems ◽  
Gene Environment ◽  
Behavior Outcomes ◽  
Susceptibility Model ◽  
Diathesis Stress Model

AbstractA recent article in this journal reported a number of gene × environment interactions involving a serotonin transporter–gene network polygenic score and a composite index of prenatal adversity predicting several problem behavior outcomes at 48 months (e.g., anxious/depressed, pervasive developmental problems) and at 60 months (e.g., withdrawal, internalizing problems), yet did not illuminate the nature or form these genetic × environment interactions took. Here we report results of six additional analyses to evaluate whether these interactions reflected diathesis–stress or differential–susceptibility related processes. Analyses of the regions of significance and proportion of interaction index are consistent with the diathesis–stress model, seemingly because of the truncated nature of the adversity score (which did not extend to supportive/positive prenatal experiences/exposures); in contrast, the proportion (of cases) affected index favors the differential–susceptibility model. These results suggest the need for future studies to extend measurement of the prenatal environment to highly supportive experiences and exposures.

Highly sensitive adolescent benefits in positive school transitions: Evidence for vantage sensitivity in Japanese high-schoolers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuhei Iimura
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Environmental Influences ◽  
Differential Susceptibility ◽  
School Transition ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Crossover Point ◽  
Japanese Adolescents ◽  
Highly Sensitive

Some researchers indicate that the transition to high school deflects adolescent developmental trajectories. Others assert it provides a new possibility for the promotion of adolescents’ socioemotional well-being. One critical view missing in such claims is that individual variabilities interact with environmental influences. We employed the framework of Differential Susceptibility Theory, which postulates that individual susceptibilities moderate external influences for better and for worse. In order to clarify the mechanism of adolescents’ differential adjustments, this paper investigated the role of sensory-processing sensitivity using the Japanese version of Highly Sensitive Child Scale for Adolescence (J-HSCS), and tested whether the diathesis-stress model or the differential susceptibility model best describes students’ socioemotional adjustment across their high school transition. The current paper used the two-wave data collected from Japanese adolescents aged from 14 to 15 years (n = 412, 50% girls). In Study 1, we investigated the replicability of psychometric properties of J-HSCS. The results supported previous findings, indicating its validity for the bifactor model. In Study 2, we utilized confirmatory competitive model testing, which maximizes statistical power by parameterizing the crossover point to allow a direct comparison of alternative models. The results indicated that neither the diathesis-stress nor the differential susceptibility models fitted the data. Rather, a strong vantage sensitivity model was revealed, suggesting that highly susceptible adolescents disproportionately benefitted from a positive school transition over their counterparts. This finding signified the role of adolescents’ sensitivity to environmental influences and the importance of considering its moderation under person x environment interactions.

scholarly journals Statistical Tests of Symbolic Dynamics

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 817
Author(s):  
Fernando López ◽  
Mariano Matilla-García ◽  
Jesús Mur ◽  
Manuel Ruiz Marín
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Symbolic Dynamics ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
General Applicability ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiments ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Theoretical Application ◽  
New Statistics ◽  
General Method

A novel general method for constructing nonparametric hypotheses tests based on the field of symbolic analysis is introduced in this paper. Several existing tests based on symbolic entropy that have been used for testing central hypotheses in several branches of science (particularly in economics and statistics) are particular cases of this general approach. This family of symbolic tests uses few assumptions, which increases the general applicability of any symbolic-based test. Additionally, as a theoretical application of this method, we construct and put forward four new statistics to test for the null hypothesis of spatiotemporal independence. There are very few tests in the specialized literature in this regard. The new tests were evaluated with the mean of several Monte Carlo experiments. The results highlight the outstanding performance of the proposed test.

Isotaphonomy in concept and practice: an exploration of vertebrate microfossil bonebeds in the Upper Cretaceous (Campanian) Judith River Formation, north-central Montana

Paleobiology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond R. Rogers ◽  
Matthew T. Carrano ◽  
Kristina A. Curry Rogers ◽  
Magaly Perez ◽  
Anik K. Regan
Keyword(s):  
Upper Cretaceous ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Sampling Strategies ◽  
North Central ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Size And Shape ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Central Montana ◽  
Judith River Formation

AbstractVertebrate microfossil bonebeds (VMBs)—localized concentrations of small resilient vertebrate hard parts—are commonly studied to recover otherwise rarely found small-bodied taxa, and to document relative taxonomic abundance and species richness in ancient vertebrate communities. Analyses of taphonomic comparability among VMBs have often found significant differences in size and shape distributions, and thus considered them to be non-isotaphonomic. Such outcomes of “strict” statistical tests of isotaphonomy suggest discouraging limits on the potential for broad, comparative paleoecological reconstruction using VMBs. Yet it is not surprising that sensitive statistical tests highlight variations among VMB sites, especially given the general lack of clarity with regard to the definition of “strict” isotaphonomic comparability. We rigorously sampled and compared six VMB localities representing two distinct paleoenvironments (channel and pond/lake) of the Upper Cretaceous Judith River Formation to evaluate biases related to sampling strategies and depositional context. Few defining distinctions in bioclast size and shape are evident in surface collections, and most site-to-site comparisons of sieved collections are indistinguishable (p≤0.003). These results provide a strong case for taphonomic equivalence among the majority of Judith River VMBs, and bode well for future studies of paleoecology, particularly in relation to investigations of faunal membership and community structure in Late Cretaceous wetland ecosystems. The taphonomic comparability of pond/lake and channel-hosted VMBs in the Judith River Formation is also consistent with a formative model that contends that channel-hosted VMBs were reworked from pre-existing pond/lake assemblages, and thus share taphonomic history.

scholarly journals Conserved queen pheromones in bumblebees: A reply to Amsalem et al.

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Holman ◽  
Jelle S van Zweden ◽  
Ricardo Caliari Oliveira ◽  
Annette van Oystaeyen ◽  
Tom Wenseleers
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Cuticular Hydrocarbon ◽  
Division Of Labour ◽  
Queen Pheromone ◽  
Worker Reproduction ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
False Negatives ◽  
Evolutionarily Conserved ◽  
Reproductive Division Of Labour ◽  
Reproductive Division

In a recent study, Amsalem et al. performed experiments with Bombus impatiens bumblebees to test the hypothesis that saturated cuticular hydrocarbons are evolutionarily conserved signals used to regulate reproductive division of labour in many Hymenopteran social insects. They concluded that the cuticular hydrocarbon pentacosane (C25), previously identified as a queen pheromone in a congeneric bumblebee, does not affect worker reproduction in B. impatiens. Here we identify some significant shortcomings of Amsalem et al.’s study that make its conclusions unreliable. In particular, inappropriate statistical tests were used, and a reanalysis of their dataset found that C25 substantially reduced and delayed worker egg laying in B. impatiens. Additionally, the study’s low sample sizes (mean n per treatment = 13.6, range: 4-23) give it low power, not 99% power as claimed, meaning that some its non-significant results may be false negatives. Additionally, several confounding effects may have affected the results of both experimental manipulations in the study

On-Line Monitoring the Stationarity for Time Seires

2013 ◽  
Vol 444-445 ◽  
pp. 687-691
Author(s):  
Zhan Shou Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Test Power ◽  
Normal Sequence ◽  
Fixed Sample ◽  
Monte Carlo Studies ◽  
Monitoring Procedure ◽  
On Line

When analyzing time series an important issue is to decide whether the time series is stationary or nonstationary. Fixed sample statistical tests for that problem are well studies in the literature. In this paper we propose a moving variance ratio statistic to monitor the stationarity for normal sequence. Our Monte Carlo studies show that the proposed monitoring procedure has satisfactory test power and that the decision can often be made very early.

scholarly journals CircaCompare: a method to estimate and statistically support differences in mesor, amplitude and phase, between circadian rhythms

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rex Parsons ◽  
Richard Parsons ◽  
Nicholas Garner ◽  
Henrik Oster ◽  
Oliver Rawashdeh
Keyword(s):  
Wave Function ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
P Value ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Fundamental Interest ◽  
Response Variable ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Phase Amplitude

Abstract Motivation A fundamental interest in chronobiology is to compare patterns between groups of rhythmic data. However, many existing methods are ill-equipped to derive statements concerning the statistical significance of differences between rhythms that may be visually apparent. This is attributed to both the form of data used (longitudinal versus cross-sectional) and the limitations of the statistical tests used to draw conclusions. Results To address this problem, we propose that a cosinusoidal curve with a particular parametrization be used to model and compare data of two sets of observations collected over a 24-h period. The novelty of our test is in the parametrization, which allows the explicit estimation of rhythmic parameters [mesor (the rhythm-adjusted mean level of a response variable around which a wave function oscillates), amplitude and phase], and simultaneously testing for statistical significance in all three parameters between two or more groups of datasets. A statistically significant difference between two groups, regarding each of these rhythmic parameters, is indicated by a P-value. The method is evaluated by applying the model to publicly available datasets, and is further exemplified by comparison to the currently recommended method, DODR. The results suggest that the method proposed may be highly sensitive to detect rhythmic differences between groups in phase, amplitude and mesor. Availability and implementation https://github.com/RWParsons/circacompare/

Approximate upper bounds for the critical probability of oriented percolation in two dimensions based on rapidly mixing Markov chains

1997 ◽  
Vol 34 (04) ◽  
pp. 859-867
Author(s):  
Béla Bollabás ◽  
Alan Stacey
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chains ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Oriented Percolation ◽  
Critical Probability ◽  
Confidence Levels

We develop a technique for establishing statistical tests with precise confidence levels for upper bounds on the critical probability in oriented percolation. We use it to give pc < 0.647 with a 99.999967% confidence. As Monte Carlo simulations suggest that pc ≈ 0.6445, this bound is fairly tight.

scholarly journals A Simple Monte Carlo Framework to Assess Suicide Risk in Adolescents: A Study at a High School in Colombia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3674
Author(s):  
Elias David Nino-Ruiz ◽  
Ana Maria Trejos-Herrera ◽  
Maria Yaquelin Exposito-Concepcion ◽  
Marjorie Rodriguez-Giraldo ◽  
Randy Steven Consuegra-Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Suicidal Ideation ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Eating Behaviors ◽  
Eating Habits ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Psychological Constructs

It is very common to perform statistical tests to obtain insights about populations based on samples. For instance, in the context of psychology, when a set of instruments are applied to individuals, psychologists typically look for an explanation of particular psychological constructs (variables), such as personality, intelligence, or emotional functioning. It is common to cross statistical information from the results of different psychological tests to measure certain variables or to confirm prior beliefs. Here, we estimate the Joint Probability Density Function of suicide-related vulnerability and protective factors to assess suicide risk in adolescents. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method is employed to move away from the typical Gaussian assumption on data. This allows us to estimate probabilities of the development of suicidal ideation based on samples (which form a Markov chain). We employ our proposed statistical method at a high school in Colombia. The results reveal that adolescents can develop suicidal ideation as a consequence of the following factors, together with their corresponding probabilities: poor school performance 52%, low academic expectations 27%, school integration problems 68%, risky eating behaviors (binge-purge) 42%, risky eating behaviors (compensatory measurements) 21%, risky eating habits (restriction) 22%, and low family functionality 16%.

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