scholarly journals CircaCompare: a method to estimate and statistically support differences in mesor, amplitude and phase, between circadian rhythms

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rex Parsons ◽  
Richard Parsons ◽  
Nicholas Garner ◽  
Henrik Oster ◽  
Oliver Rawashdeh
Keyword(s):  
Wave Function ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
P Value ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Fundamental Interest ◽  
Response Variable ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Phase Amplitude

Abstract Motivation A fundamental interest in chronobiology is to compare patterns between groups of rhythmic data. However, many existing methods are ill-equipped to derive statements concerning the statistical significance of differences between rhythms that may be visually apparent. This is attributed to both the form of data used (longitudinal versus cross-sectional) and the limitations of the statistical tests used to draw conclusions. Results To address this problem, we propose that a cosinusoidal curve with a particular parametrization be used to model and compare data of two sets of observations collected over a 24-h period. The novelty of our test is in the parametrization, which allows the explicit estimation of rhythmic parameters [mesor (the rhythm-adjusted mean level of a response variable around which a wave function oscillates), amplitude and phase], and simultaneously testing for statistical significance in all three parameters between two or more groups of datasets. A statistically significant difference between two groups, regarding each of these rhythmic parameters, is indicated by a P-value. The method is evaluated by applying the model to publicly available datasets, and is further exemplified by comparison to the currently recommended method, DODR. The results suggest that the method proposed may be highly sensitive to detect rhythmic differences between groups in phase, amplitude and mesor. Availability and implementation https://github.com/RWParsons/circacompare/

scholarly journals Analisis Hubungan Paritas Dengan Pengetahuan Ibu Post Sectio Caesaria Tentang Mobilisasi Dini di RSUD dr. Doris Sylvanus Palangka Raya

2019 ◽  
pp. 155-160
Author(s):  
Lensi Natalia Tambunan ◽  
Lelly Oktarina ◽  
Nita Kusuma Lindarsih
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Early Mobilization ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Abdominal Muscles ◽  
Maternal Knowledge ◽  
Excessive Bleeding ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Significant Difference

Latar Belakang: Mobilisasi dini pada ibu nifas bertujuan untuk membantu menguatkan otot-otot perut, sehingga memperbaiki sirkulasi darah ke seluruh tubuh. Hal ini harus dipenuhi ibu selama masa nifas untuk mengembalikan organ-organ reproduksi, terutama untuk ibu yang post sectio caesaria. Mobilisasi pada ibu post sectio caesaria adalah suatu pergerakan, posisi atau adanya kegiatan yang dilakukan ibu setelah beberapa jam melahirkan dengan persalinan Caesar Namun, kenyataannya masih banyak ibu post sectio caesaria yang tidak mau melakukan mobilisasi dini karena merasa takut, malas untuk bergerak, merasa sakit dan lelah. Faktor fisiologis seperti kenaikan suhu tubuh (hipertermi), perdarahan yang berlebihan, nyeri, faktoe emosional seperti terjadinya kecemasan dan factor perkembangan seperti usia dan paritas.Tujuan: Penelitian untuk mengetahui hubungan paritas dengan pengetahuan ibu post Sectio caesaria tentang mobilisasi dini di RSUD Doris Sylvanus Palangka Raya Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah.Metode: Desain penelitian  ini  bersifat kuantitatif analitik observasional dengan menggunakan jenis desain cross sectional dengan tehnik pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah Accidental Sampling. Populasi pada penelitian ini adalah seluruh ibu post sectio caesaria  di RSUD dr. Doris Sylvanus Palangka Raya. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan menggunakan data primer.Data dianalisis secara chi square. Hasil: Hasil uji statistik diperoleh P value 0,964, berarti tidak ada perbedaan secara bermakna sehingga dapat disimpulkan tidak ada hubungan antara paritas dengan pengetahuan ibu post sectio caesaria tentang mobilisasi dini.Simpulan: Ibu post sectio caesaria dengan paritas 2 agar tetap diberikan informasi mengenai mobilisasi dini post sectio caesaria agar ibu memiliki pengetahuan yang baik, jika ibu memiliki pengetahuan yang baik mengenai mobilisasi maka ibu akan melaksanakan mobilisasi diniKata Kunci: Paritas, Ibu post sectio caesaria, Mobilisasi Dini. Background: Early mobilization of the postpartum mother aims to help strengthen the abdominal muscles, thereby improving blood circulation throughout. This must be fulfilled by the mother during puerperium to restore the reproductive organs, especially for mothers who are post sectional caesaria.  Mobilization of post sectio caesaria mothers is a movement, position or activity carried out by the mother after several hours of childbirth with caesarean delivery. However, in reality there are still many post sectio caesaria mothers who do not want to make early mobilization because they are afraid, lazy to move, feel sick and tiredPhysiological factors such as increased body temperature (hypertension), excessive bleeding, pain, emotional factors such as anxiety and developmental factors such as age and parity. Objective: The study was to find out the relationship between parity and post Sectio caesaria mother's knowledge about early mobilization in Doris Sylvanus Hospital in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan Province.Method: The design of this study was quantitative analytic observational using a cross sectional design with the sampling technique used was accidental sampling. The population in this study were all post sectio caesaria mothers in RSUD dr. Doris Sylvanus Palangka Raya.  Data collection was done using primary data. Data was analyzed by chi square.Result: The result of statistical tests obtained p value 0.964 means that there is no significant difference so that it can be concluded there is no relationship between parity and post-caesaria maternal knowledge about early mobilization.Conclusion: Post-caeserean mothers with parity 2 keep informed about early post-caesarean mobilization so that mothers have good knowledge about mobilization, mothers will carry out early mobilization.Keywords: Parity, Maternal Caesarean section, Early Mobilization. 

scholarly journals Population-based survey of HIV sero-status and vertical transmission among naive pregnant women in Sokoto, Nigeria

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 49-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiekumo Igbida Buseri ◽  
Charity Ngozi Okonkwo
Keyword(s):  
Antiretroviral Therapy ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Vertical Transmission ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
P Value ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Significant Difference

Background: This study aims at investigating the seroprevalence of HIV infection among status naive pregnant women and probable vertical transmission in Sokoto, Nigeria.Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study examined 13,026 apparently healthy pregnant women aged between 14 and 45 years and 312 mother-baby pairs in 4 different hospital settings in Sokoto State, North West, Nigeria between March, 2011 and February, 2013. The babies were aged between 8 and 16 months. HIV screening was performed using qualitative rapid tests and ELISA and HIV-DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques. Measurement of CD4+ T-lymphocytes was carried out by the BD FACScount System. All seropositive pregnant women were immediately placed on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) throughout the duration of the pregnancy and beyond.Results: An overall 2.4% prevalence of HIV-1 infection among the pregnant women and 20.5% incident of mother-to-child transmission were found. Of the seropositive pregnant women, 75.0% were full-time house wives, 13.8% and 11.2% were traders and civil servants respectively; of which, 70.2% were within the ages of 14 and 27 years (youthful predominance). Pearson’s χ2analysis did not show any statistically significant difference in the Mean values in the 4 health facilities (χ2 =2.084, df=3, P-value=0.555). Similarly, no significant difference in HIV seropositivity in the demographic data of the pregnant women were observed (P>0.05). Infection was recorded in all age groups but there was no statistical significance between age groups and infection (P = 0.833). Of the 64 seropositive babies, 62 (92.5%) contracted HIV from antiretroviral therapy non-adherence mothers (χ2 =271.457, df=1, P<0.01), OR=1506.6 (95%CI=285.5-7950.4). Conclusion: This study found high prevalence of vertical transmission due to ART non-adherence. Intervention initiatives should, therefore, focus seriously on ART non-adherence. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ajms.v6i3.11530Asian Journal of Medical Sciences Vol.6(3) 2015 49-57  

scholarly journals Healthworker Preparedness for COVID-19 Management and Implementation Experiences: A Mixed Methods Study in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria Seruwagi ◽  
Catherine Nakidde ◽  
Felix Otieno ◽  
Joshua Kayiwa ◽  
Brian Luswata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Work Environment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
P Value ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Validated Questionnaire ◽  
High Level

Abstract Background : The negative impact of COVID-19 on population health outcomes raises critical questions on health system preparedness and resilience, especially in resource-limited settings. This study examined healthworker preparedness for COVID-19 management and implementation experiences in Uganda’s refugee-hosting districts.Methods : A cross sectional, mixed-method descriptive study in 17 health facilities in 7 districts from 4 major regions. Total sample size was 485 including >370 health care workers (HCWs). HCW knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) was assessed by using a pre-validated questionnaire. The quantitative data was processed and analysed using SPSS 26, and statistical significance assumed at p<0.05 for all statistical tests. Bloom's cutoff of 80% was used to determine threshold for sufficient knowledge level and practices with scores classified as high (80.0%–100.0%), average (60.0%–79.0%) and low (≤59.0%). HCW implementation experiences and key stakeholder opinions were further explored qualitatively using interviews which were audio-recorded, coded and thematically analysed.Results: On average 71% of HCWs were knowledgeable on the various aspects of COVID-19, although there is a wide variation in knowledge. Awareness of symptoms ranked highest among 95% (p value < 0.0001) of HCWs while awareness of the criteria for intubation for COVID-19 patients ranked lowest with only 35% (p value < 0.0001). Variations were noted on falsehoods about COVID-19 causes, prevention and treatment across Central (p value < 0.0356) and West Nile (p value < 0.0161) regions. Protective practices include adequate ventilation, virtual meetings and HCW training. Deficient practices were around psychosocial and lifestyle support, remote working and contingency plans for HCWs safety. The work environment has immensely changed with increased demands on the amount of work, skills and variation in nature of work. HCWs also reported moderate control over their work environment, high level of support from supervisors (88%) and colleagues (93%). Conclusions: HCWs preparedness is inadequate in some aspects. Implementation of healthcare interventions is constrained by the complexity of Uganda’s health system design, top-down approach of the national response to COVID-19 and longstanding health system bottlenecks. We recommend continuous information sharing on COVID-19, a design review with capacity strengthening at all health facility levels and investing in community-facing strategies.

scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN KETERATURAN IBU HAMIL DALAM MENGKONSUMSI TABLET FE DI WILAYAH KERJA PUSKESMAS SULIT AIR KABUPATEN SOLOK

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-293
Author(s):  
Netty Herawati
Keyword(s):  
Family Support ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Deficiency Anemia ◽  
P Value ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Water Based

Pregnancy is a condition in which the fetus is conceived in the mother's body, which begins with the fertilization process. Lack of iron during pregnancy will lead to iron deficiency anemia and can cause bleeding during delivery, facilitate infection and decrease the carrying capacity of acid. The need for pregnant women for Fe increases (for the formation of placenta and red blood cells) by 200-300%, about 300 mg of Fe is transferred to the fetus so that 50-75 mg for the formation of placenta, 450 mg for increasing the amount of red blood and 200 mg disappears when The type of research in this research is descriptive analytic using cross sectional design. In this study, the independent variables are motivation, the role of health workers and family support, the dependent variable is the regularity of consuming Fe tablets. Based on the statistical test, it was obtained p value 0.007 ˂ 0.05, which means that there is a significant relationship between poor motivation and irregularity in consuming Fe tablets in the working area of Puskesmas with difficult water. Based on statistical tests, p value is 0.001 0.05, which means there is a significant relationship There is a significant difference between the role of health workers and irregularity in consuming Fe tablets in the working area of Puskesmas with difficulty in water. Based on statistical tests, the p value is 0.000 ˂ 0.05, which means that there is a significant relationship between poor family support and irregularity in consuming Fe tablets in the region. The Work of Puskesmas is Hard to Water.

scholarly journals Clinicopathological study of ameloblastoma and detection of human papilloma virus by immunohistochemistry

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Misbah Ali ◽  
Mulazim Hussain Bukhari ◽  
Faiza Hassan ◽  
Maria Illyas
Keyword(s):  
Human Papilloma Virus ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
P Value ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Papilloma Virus ◽  
Creative Commons ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Clinicopathological Study

Objective: To study the clinocopathological factors and presence of Human Pappiloma Virus in ameloblastoma by immnohistochemistry. Methods: It was a cross sectional study on 50 surgical specimens of ameloblastoma, completed in six months. These were selected and processed for initial screening by H&E and then by immunohistochemistry (IHC) for detection of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV). The questionnaire was designed to study the clinicopathological factors associated in these patients. Sections of 4µm were cut, placed on special positive charged glass slides in the Department of Pathology, King Edward Medical University. It was then examined by the histopathologists for grading and scoring of these lesions. Chi Square test was used to assess the differences found in types of ameloblastomas. The p-value was smaller than 0.05 (p < 0.05). Results: The mean age of the patients (12-80 years old) was 38.6±15.1 years, with male-female ratio 2.84: 1. HPV was positive in 9 (18%), whereas negative in of 41 (82%) patients. Among the positive, reactive HPV with score-1 was 8 and score-2 was 1. According to histological variant, follicular was present in 78%, Plexiform pattern in 8%, Conventional and Desmoplastic variants in one patient each; and Cystic and Acanthomatous were seen in two and three patients respectively. The mandible was involved in 39 patients, maxilla and right maxilla involved in 4 patients each, right retromolar, cheek and angle of mandible was seen in one patient each. About 16% patients had anterior, 66% had posterior and 18% had both anterior and posterior regions involved. Among the HPV positive reactive statistically, no significant difference was found with smoking, Paan and exposure to pesticides, factory or mine (p-value > 0.05). Among HPV positive reactive patients, eight had ameloblastoma whereas, 1 had ameloblastomic fibroma. There was no statistical significance of type, location and region of tumor in HPV positivity. Conclusion: Mandible and posterior region was more commonly involved. Follicular pattern was most common. There was no effect of exposure to pesticides, factory or mine, smoke and human papilloma virus in the etiology of ameloblastoma because only 18% of patients showed the association of HPV16 doi: https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.35.6.909 How to cite this:Ali M, Bukhari MH, Hassan F, Illyas M. Clinicopathological study of ameloblastoma and detection of human papilloma virus by immunohistochemistry. Pak J Med Sci. 2019;35(6):1691-1696. doi: https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.35.6.909 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Who Indicates Caesarean Section in Romania? A Cross-Sectional Survey in Tertiary Level Maternity on Childbirth Patients and Doctors' Profiles

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anca Angela Simionescu ◽  
Alexandra Horobet ◽  
Erika Marin ◽  
Lucian Belascu
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Tertiary Level ◽  
Delivery Mode ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Medical Indication ◽  
Delivery Modes ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Background. C-section rate in Romania is the second-highest in the European Union (44.1% in 2017) and the number of C-sections performed in the country increased by 32.1% between 2009 and 2017. We offer for the first time insights into the practice and perceptions of patients and doctors in Romania towards delivery mode and on health system particularities that lead to increased numbers of C-sections. The objectives are 1) to compare the preferred modes of birth among women 2) to draw a profile of patients in whose case the actual birth method is different from the preferred method, and 3) to outline a profile of doctors and patients based on the modes of delivery. Methods. We conduct a statistical analysis based on an observational, analytical, and cross-sectional survey on 117 singleton pregnant women more than 36 weeks in spontaneous labor in tertiary level maternity in Romania. Various statistical tests have been used to indicate statistical significance. Results. Our results show an increase of almost 58% in actual childbirth mode against preferred childbirth by C-sections, rather difficult to justify based only on medical emergencies. There are 22 patients with non-concordant C-section indications between preferred and actual mode of birth, 7 of them (31.8%) preferred natural birth and 15 (68.2%) preferred C-section. Scarred uterus is the most frequent medical indication for C-section (30.7%). Overall, birth and birth pain assessment correlates to preferred and actual delivery modes, but respondents distinguish clearly between birth pain alone and their overall birth experience. The profiles of patients with concordant and non-concordant delivery modes are different, and indicate a statistically significant difference between the preference for delivery and actual birth method. Patients who preferred vaginal birth, but gave birth by C-section, are mature and more educated women, in the middle to the high-income category, mostly attended by consultant doctors and specialists. Doctors’ profiles show that specialists and consultants attend the largest share of non-concordant births, while residents and young senior doctors attend mostly vaginal births. Conclusions. We emphasize health system particularities in Romania as triggers of high C-section rates that favor womens’ preferences against C-section medical indication.

scholarly journals Patterns, Types, and Outcomes of Head Injury in Aseer Region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Alnaami ◽  
Shbeli Alshehri ◽  
Saeed Alghamdi ◽  
Meshal Ogran ◽  
Asim Qasem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Head Injury ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Seat Belt ◽  
Head Injuries ◽  
P Value ◽  
Loss Of Function ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Study Duration ◽  
Significant Difference

Background. Head injuries contribute to almost 50% of all injuries. Head injuries are still one of the major causes of loss of life and loss of function among young adults. Nowadays, head injury has become a major community problem. Recently, head injury has become one of the biggest issues of almost more than 57 million people in the whole world living with the neurological problem raised by TBI, in which 10 million people require hospital base care. Objectives. To determine the epidemiological aspects of patients with head injury (HI) in Aseer Central Hospital (ACH). Materials and Methods. This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. Data were gathered from patients’ files and the registrar’s database of ACH. The study duration was January 2015–December 2017. All patients with head injury admitted to ACH during the study duration were included in the study. SPSS software was used for analysis. Descriptive statistics were obtained (mean SD frequencies, percentages). Statistical tests, t test, and chi-squared test were applied to measure the significant difference among the variables. P-value less than 0.05 was considered as a significant difference. Results. There were 353 patients with head injury, and the mean ± SD of age was 27.01 ± 13.9. Motor vehicle accidents (MVA) accounted for (89.3%) of head injury. A total of 87.3% of the patients were male while 12.7% were female. Conclusion. In this study, we observed that MVA is the leading cause of brain/head injuries in the KSA, despite the implementations of new speed rules. However, with new regulations of forbidding cell phone use while driving and forcing the seat belt regulations, a major impact on these numbers is expected in the future. Thus, a future study is recommended to assess these expectations.

scholarly journals Fluoride Levels of Urban Water in Western Azerbaijan Province in 2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Daneshpooy ◽  
Elmira Jafari-navimpour ◽  
Mahdi Rahbar ◽  
Javad Parhizgar
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Dental Caries ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Fluoride Concentration ◽  
Mineral Elements ◽  
P Value ◽  
Optimum Level ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Significant Difference

Introduction: Fluoride is one of the naturally occurring mineral elements which has an effective role in preventing dental caries and its consolidation. Fluoridation of water is a simple technique and the most effective method approved for preventing dental caries. Accordingly, this research was carried out with the aim of investigating the level of fluoride in the urban water of cities in Western Azerbaijan province in 2017. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive-cross-sectional study, the level of fluoride in urban water reservoirs of 17 towns of Western Azerbaijan province was examined in different reservoirs. The information of the reservoirs was collected from water and wastewater organization of the province, where a 250-cc water sample was collected from each reservoir. The prepared samples were thenT sent to the laboratory to measure the level of fluoride. Determination of the concentration of fluoride ion in water samples was carried out using spectrophotometric method. Eventually, the data obtained from this study were examined by statistical-descriptive methods using SPSS 17. P <0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: The results obtained from the study indicate that the level of fluoride in the samples investigated in Shooth and Poldasht town was larger than the optimum level, while the rest of towns had a level lesser than the optimum value. Furthermore, the median of the investigated population (the median fluoride of the towns of Western Azerbaijan province) was 0.227 ppm, when based on statistical tests, it had a significant difference with the optimal fluoride value (1 ppm) (p-value<0.05). Conclusion: Considering the median of fluoride concentration in towns of Western Azerbaijan province (0.227 ppm), it can be stated that the level of fluoride in drinking water of this province is low, elucidating the addition of supplementary fluoride to the drinking water of reservoirs.

scholarly journals Professional Architects Awareness on the Sustainable Benefits of Compressed Earth Brick as a Wall Material in North-Western Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1024-1036
Author(s):  
Sanusi Sani Maimagani
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Wall Material ◽  
P Value ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Thermal Environments ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
North Western ◽  
Awareness Level

The study intended to appraise the level of Awareness among the Professional Architects on the sustainable benefits of using compressed earth brick as a wall material for school in North-Western Nigeria. In the past, schools were built with earth, and their indoor thermal environments are friendly and more energy-efficient compared with the nowadays walling material. In order to accomplish the purpose of the study, a cross-sectional online survey design was adopted to collect the relevant data for evaluating the awareness level of the sustainable benefits of compressed earth bricks amongst the professional Architects in North-western Nigeria. Statistical analysis software ANOVA and SPSS 25 were utilized to determine the respondent's awareness level, on the sustainable benefits of C.E.B., and concerning their educational qualifications and year of experiences. The research data are analyzed based on a 5% level of significance for all statistical tests in this study. The analysis results reveal that the professionals are aware of the benefits, including availability, renewability, recyclability, and affordability. There is no significant difference in the professional Architects level of Awareness concerning their educational qualification because the p-value (0.376) is greater than the alpha value of 0.05, and also based on their years of experiences, there is no significant difference (p-value (0.850) is greater than the alpha value of 0.05). These trigger the need for government policies and the general public enlightenment by the building industry's professional bodies.

scholarly journals Does sub-Saharan Africa truly defy the forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic? Response from population data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongmo Christophe Fokoua-Maxime ◽  
Monique Amor-Ndjabo ◽  
Amandus Ankobil ◽  
Momah Victor-Kiyung ◽  
Steve Franck-Metomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
P Value ◽  
London School ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Population Proportion ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
Sub Saharan

AbstractIntroductionSince its identification, the COVID-19 infection has caused substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide, but sub-Saharan Africa seems to defy the predictions. We aimed to verify this hypothesis using strong statistical methods.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study comparing the projected and actual numbers as well as population proportions of COVID-19 cases in the 46 sub-Saharan African countries on May 1st, May 29th (4 weeks later) and June 26th (8 weeks later). The source of the projected number of cases was a publication by scientists from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, whereas the actual number of cases was obtained from the WHO situation reports. We calculated the percentage difference between the projected and actual numbers of cases per country. Further, “N-1” chi-square tests with Bonferroni correction were used to compare the projected and actual population proportion of COVID-19 cases, along with the 95% confidence interval of the difference between these population proportions. All statistical tests were 2-sided, with 0.05 used as threshold for statistical significance.ResultsOn May 1st, May 29th and June 26th, respectively 40 (86.95%), 45 (97.82%) and 41 (89.13%) of the sub-Saharan African countries reported a number of confirmed cases that was lower than the predicted number of 1000 cases for May 1st and 10000 for both May 29th and June 26th. At these dates, the population proportions of confirmed Covid-19 cases were significantly lower (p-value <0.05) than the projected proportions of cases. Across all these dates, South-Africa always exceeded the predicted number and population proportion of COVID-19 infections.ConclusionSub-Saharan African countries did defy the dire predictions of the COVID-19 burden. Preventive measures should be further enforced to preserve this positive outcome.

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