Five Laws of Politics

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (03) ◽  
pp. 415-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred G. Cuzán
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The State ◽  
Reliable Indicator ◽  
Organic Unity ◽  
The World ◽  
The Will ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTDrawing on more than 500 elections from around the world, this article presents five empirical laws of politics. Four of these laws span democracies and dictatorships, and one sets a boundary between the two. In both regimes the governing party or coalition represents a minority of the electorate. In democracies this minority usually represents a plurality that amounts to about one third of the electorate. Judging by the outcome of the first free elections in regimes undergoing a transition, there is reason to believe that in dictatorships the minority is much smaller. Even as they have an advantage over the opposition, the incumbents experience an erosion of support over time. In democracies this leads to alternation in office, which in turn ensures that across many elections about two-thirds of the electorate gets to see its favorite party or coalition in government from time to time. In dictatorships, during long periods in office, support for the ruling party shrinks to insignificance. Also in democracies, it is rare for incumbents to receive more than 60 percent of the vote, and itneverhappens twice within the same spell in government. This appears to be a reliable indicator that differentiatesalldemocracies frommostdictatorships. The conclusion is inescapable—the dictatorial “passion for unanimity” and illusion of “organic unity” notwithstanding, the state is a plurality. The will of the electorate emerges as a result of competition among political parties.

Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating*

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ned Augenblick ◽  
Matthew Rabin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Uncertainty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Core Concepts ◽  
Market Beliefs ◽  
Over Time

Abstract When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.

scholarly journals Makna Penting Demokrasi dan Musyawarah Bagi Keutuhan Bangsa Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
NAVI GITA MAULIDA
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
National State ◽  
Unitary State ◽  
Democratic State ◽  
The World ◽  
State Construction ◽  
The Will ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Historical Trajectory ◽  
As If

The Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI) based on the historical trajectory of the struggle, has the only state construction in the world where the nation is born first, then forms the state. The first President of the Republic of Indonesia Ir. Soekarno emphasized that the Unitary State is a National State. The purpose of the Indonesian nation to be born, independent, and to form a state has one goal, the will to elevate the dignity and life of the Indonesian people (Indonesian People's Sovereignty). Through an analysis of the reality of today's life, the Indonesian nation has lived in a condition of life order as if it were the same as a democratic state, namely that the first state was formed and the nation was born later. So that the sovereignty of the Indonesian people based on the principles of deliberation and representation has not been able to be realized.

Symbolic Goods in Israeli Posters

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-120
Author(s):  
Michal Pal Bracha
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
The State ◽  
Jewish Tradition ◽  
The World ◽  
Zionist Movement ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Bible Stories ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
State Of Israel ◽  
Over Time

"This article deals with symbolic goods in posters in Israel from the period before the establishment of the state to the present day. The poster and the symbolic goods that appear in it, serve as an agent of ideological companies. In this study, I will examine the nature of the relationship between the symbolic goods and the Zionist-Israeli ideology, by comparing the symbolic goods represented in them over time and space. The questions the research asks are: What are the contribution and importance of symbolic goods as an ideological tool in Israeli posters? Has the world of symbolic goods that served Zionist ideology origin or been borrowed from other ideologies? The methodology is Qualitative research by: study case, Visual – genealogical. The conclusions of the study indicate the importance of the symbolic goods in the foundation of the State of Israel by posters and other media. The symbolic goods that characterize the posters in Israel, consist in part of content related to Jewish tradition and religion (Bible stories and myths) and its other part is influenced by the symbolic goods appropriated from ideologies around the globe. Keywords: Symbolic Goods, Posters, Marketing, Ideology, Zionist Movement, Israel. "

The Relevance of Biblical Justice to Industry

1956 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 264-277
Author(s):  
George Goyder
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Hugo Grotius ◽  
The World ◽  
The Will ◽  
Fair Distribution ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Biblical Justice ◽  
Supreme Being

Justice, according to Aristotle, is giving to every man his own. But what is a man's own, and how is it to be determined relative to what belongs to other men? We call fair distribution between persons by the name of justice, and in doing so we acknowledge that justice stands over and between men as something prior to and outside a man's will or even the State's will. The moment we invoke ‘justice’, we in fact appeal to a supreme Being as the source of justice. Either God disposes of the world, determines the order of His creatures, and endows them with the qualities necessary to that order, or justice is based on power, and the expression of justice is the edict of the State. Either there is a Supreme Lawgiver who is the source of Jus or right and therefore of law, or there is no objective right but only the will of the powerful. Hugo Grotius agrees with the Stoics in deriving Jus from Jove.

scholarly journals When the World Around You Is Changing: Investigating the Influence of Alienation and Indifference on Voter Turnout

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Wuttke
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Perceived Competence ◽  
Political Context ◽  
The Political ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
The World ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
Over Time

This chapter investigates the amount of variability in individual turnout decisions over time and its dependence on the changing characteristics of political parties as one feature of the political context. Electoral participation in the German federal elections from 1994 to 2013 was characterized by inertia for most eligible voters. However, one reason for dynamics in turnout behavior is changes in individual alienation with regard to the political parties. When voters develop a more favorable view of the political parties than in the previous election in terms of the parties’ generalized evaluation or perceived competence, then they are motivated to switch from abstention to voting (and vice versa). But the political parties’ capacity to raise turnout rates is rather narrow compared to the influence of other determinants, such as the perceived duty to vote.Wuttke, Alexander (2017). "When the world around you is changing: Investigating the Influence of Alienation and Indifference on Voter Turnout", in: Schoen, Harald; Roßteutscher, Sigrid; Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger; Weßels, Bernhard; Wolf, Christof (eds.): "Voters and Voting in Context", Oxford University Press, pp. pp. 146–166.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanns W. Maull
Keyword(s):  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Integrated Framework ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Guiding Questions

This chapter sets out the guiding questions for this volume and develops a comprehensive, integrated framework for analyzing political order across its three major levels. It proposes a concept of order that allows a comparison and evaluation of the characteristics and evolution of political order at their three major spatial levels: the nation-state, partial regional and functional orders at intermediate levels between the state and the world as a whole, and the global level. Key aspects of political order are effectiveness, legitimacy, and authority; principles, norms, and rules; compliance and collective sanctions and the incidence of violence; actors with the capabilities and the intentions to shape respective orders; their major structural characteristics; and their evolution over time and their resilience.

scholarly journals Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 2281-2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mira Frick ◽  
Ryota Iijima ◽  
Yuhta Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
The State ◽  
Type Distribution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Signals ◽  
The World ◽  
True State ◽  
Over Time

We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where even slight misperceptions can have a large negative impact on long‐run learning outcomes. We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents' actions over time, where agents' actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, we show, first, that even arbitrarily small amounts of misperception about the type distribution can generate extreme breakdowns of information aggregation, where in the long run all agents incorrectly assign probability 1 to some fixed state of the world, regardless of the true underlying state. Second, any misperception of the type distribution leads long‐run beliefs and behavior to vary only coarsely with the state, and we provide systematic predictions for how the nature of misperception shapes these coarse long‐run outcomes. Third, we show that how fragile information aggregation is against misperception depends on the richness of agents' payoff‐relevant uncertainty; a design implication is that information aggregation can be improved by simplifying agents' learning environment. The key feature behind our findings is that agents' belief‐updating becomes “decoupled” from the true state over time. We point to other environments where this feature is present and leads to similar fragility results.

The Revolutionary Democracy of Ethiopia: A Wartime Ideology Both Shaping and Shaped by Peacetime Policy Needs

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 653-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lovise Aalen
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Expiry Date ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), victor in the civil war in 1991, has since transformed into an authoritarian party. While this transition is well covered in the literature, few studies have explored how the party’s ideology has adapted after its position was consolidated. This article addresses this gap, by analysing the EPRDF’s ideology of revolutionary democracy, and how the interpretation of it has changed over time. The Ethiopian case shows that wartime ideologies should not be considered as static remnants of the past. Instead, the ideology has served as a flexible political tool for controlling the state and for justifying or concealing major policy changes. More recent protests and ruptures in the ruling party, however, indicate that revolutionary democracy may have an expiry date. There seems thus to be a limit to how long a wartime ideology can provide power to uphold a rebel government’s hegemony and coherence.

Understanding the Dynamics of Migration from Bangladesh to Tripura: Insights from Census Reports

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The State ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Over Time

The changing character of immigration over time in Tripura led to a huge demographic transition which is rare in the demographic history of the world. The study attempted to assess the distribution of documented Bangladeshi immigrants in Tripura and measure the trend and pattern of Bangladeshi immigration in the state. The study was based on secondary data computed from the migration tables under the D-series of census reports (1991,2001 and 2011) to deal with the study's objectives. The study has explored that almost 99 per cent of the total reported immigrants were from Bangladesh. The results revealed that female counterparts had outstripped the male Bangladeshi immigrants while the overall size of the immigrants was diminishing.

Notes in the History of Sir Jerome Alexander Second Justice of the Court of Common Pleas, and Founder of the Alexander Library, Trinity College, Dublin

1872 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 220-240
Author(s):  
Charles Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Church Of England ◽  
Trinity College ◽  
Trinity College Dublin ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Will ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The City ◽  
The Church

The Will of Sir Jerome Alexander, a parchment transcript of which is preserved in the Chief Probate Office, Dublin, is a document of more than ordinary interest; even with its cumbrous repetitions we owe no apology for producing it in full:–“In the name of God Amen. I, Sr Jerome Alexander of the City of Dublin, one of the unprofitable servants of Almighty God, being of a perfect sound disposing memory, praised bee God, this three and twentieth day of March in the yeare of the Raigne of our Soveraigne Lord Charles the Second of that name by the grace of God of England, Scotland, Fraunce and Ireland King Defender of the Faith &c. the two and twentieth, and hereby renounceing and admitting and declareing all former Wills and Testaments by mee at any time heretofore made to bee utterly void & of none effect, doe declare this to bee my last true Will and Testament in manner & form following and doe now soe declare it to bee. And first of all I resigne my soul into the hands of Jesus Christ my blessed Saviour and Redeemer, confidently trusting and assureing myselffe in by and through his onely merritts and mediation to receive life everlasting; and I doe hereby profess myselfe to dye as I have allways lived, a sonne of the Church of England, which is the most absolute and best forme of government in all the world,’ twere to bee heartily wished that it were practised in all the Churches of Christendome, and my body I commend unto the earth from whence it came to receive decent and comely buryall, without any greate pompe or ceremonies whatso-ever, not doubting but at the last day it shall bee raised againe and united unto my soule with it for to partake of immortall and everlasting happiness.

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