scholarly journals Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 2281-2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mira Frick ◽  
Ryota Iijima ◽  
Yuhta Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
The State ◽  
Type Distribution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Signals ◽  
The World ◽  
True State ◽  
Over Time

We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where even slight misperceptions can have a large negative impact on long‐run learning outcomes. We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents' actions over time, where agents' actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, we show, first, that even arbitrarily small amounts of misperception about the type distribution can generate extreme breakdowns of information aggregation, where in the long run all agents incorrectly assign probability 1 to some fixed state of the world, regardless of the true underlying state. Second, any misperception of the type distribution leads long‐run beliefs and behavior to vary only coarsely with the state, and we provide systematic predictions for how the nature of misperception shapes these coarse long‐run outcomes. Third, we show that how fragile information aggregation is against misperception depends on the richness of agents' payoff‐relevant uncertainty; a design implication is that information aggregation can be improved by simplifying agents' learning environment. The key feature behind our findings is that agents' belief‐updating becomes “decoupled” from the true state over time. We point to other environments where this feature is present and leads to similar fragility results.

Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating*

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ned Augenblick ◽  
Matthew Rabin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Uncertainty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Core Concepts ◽  
Market Beliefs ◽  
Over Time

Abstract When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.

Symbolic Goods in Israeli Posters

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-120
Author(s):  
Michal Pal Bracha
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
The State ◽  
Jewish Tradition ◽  
The World ◽  
Zionist Movement ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Bible Stories ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
State Of Israel ◽  
Over Time

"This article deals with symbolic goods in posters in Israel from the period before the establishment of the state to the present day. The poster and the symbolic goods that appear in it, serve as an agent of ideological companies. In this study, I will examine the nature of the relationship between the symbolic goods and the Zionist-Israeli ideology, by comparing the symbolic goods represented in them over time and space. The questions the research asks are: What are the contribution and importance of symbolic goods as an ideological tool in Israeli posters? Has the world of symbolic goods that served Zionist ideology origin or been borrowed from other ideologies? The methodology is Qualitative research by: study case, Visual – genealogical. The conclusions of the study indicate the importance of the symbolic goods in the foundation of the State of Israel by posters and other media. The symbolic goods that characterize the posters in Israel, consist in part of content related to Jewish tradition and religion (Bible stories and myths) and its other part is influenced by the symbolic goods appropriated from ideologies around the globe. Keywords: Symbolic Goods, Posters, Marketing, Ideology, Zionist Movement, Israel. "

scholarly journals Learning from prices: information aggregation and accumulation in an asset market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Berardi
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Private Signals ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Can prices convey information about the fundamental value of an asset? This paper considers this problem in relation to the dynamic properties of the fundamental (whether it is constant or time-varying) and the structure of information available to agents. Risk-averse traders receive two potential signals each period: one exogenous and private and the other, prices, endogenous and public. Prices aggregate private information but include aggregate noise. Information can accumulate over time both through endogenous and exogenous signals. With a constant fundamental, the precision of both private and public cumulative information increases over time but agents put progressively more weight on the endogenous signals, asymptotically disregarding private ones. If the fundamental is time-varying, the use of past private signals complicates the role of prices as a source of information, since it introduces endogenous serial correlation in the price signal and cross-correlation between it and innovations in the fundamental. A modified version of the Kalman filter can still be used to extract information from prices and results show that the precision of the endogenous signals converges to a constant, with both private and public information used at all times.

scholarly journals The Effect of Chronic Wasting Disease on Resident Deer Hunting Permit Demand in Wisconsin

Animals ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1096
Author(s):  
Dane Erickson ◽  
Carson Reeling ◽  
John G. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The State ◽  
Prior Work ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Deer Hunting ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Permit Price ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Hunter Recruitment

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has had a negative impact on deer license demand in Wisconsin since it was first found in the state in 2002. Prior work evaluates the effect of CWD on hunting permit sales, but only in the period immediately after the disease was discovered. We use data on hunting permit sales, permit price, and other demand shifters to estimate a model of deer permit demand for the period 1966–2015. We use the estimated model to quantify the effect of CWD on (1) hunter demand for deer permits; (2) hunter surplus from hunting; and (3) lost hunting permit revenues. Hunter participation declined by 5.4% after CWD was detected in 2002. Hunter surplus decreased by $96 million over this period, while permit revenues declined by nearly $17 million. The effect of CWD was greater on demand for firearm permits than for archery permits. We also find that the effects of CWD diminish over time in absolute terms. This is because permit demand would have started to decline in 2008 even in the absence of CWD. This finding implies efforts to control CWD and efforts at hunter recruitment are economic complements and should be pursued jointly to maximize hunter welfare.

Five Laws of Politics

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (03) ◽  
pp. 415-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred G. Cuzán
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The State ◽  
Reliable Indicator ◽  
Organic Unity ◽  
The World ◽  
The Will ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTDrawing on more than 500 elections from around the world, this article presents five empirical laws of politics. Four of these laws span democracies and dictatorships, and one sets a boundary between the two. In both regimes the governing party or coalition represents a minority of the electorate. In democracies this minority usually represents a plurality that amounts to about one third of the electorate. Judging by the outcome of the first free elections in regimes undergoing a transition, there is reason to believe that in dictatorships the minority is much smaller. Even as they have an advantage over the opposition, the incumbents experience an erosion of support over time. In democracies this leads to alternation in office, which in turn ensures that across many elections about two-thirds of the electorate gets to see its favorite party or coalition in government from time to time. In dictatorships, during long periods in office, support for the ruling party shrinks to insignificance. Also in democracies, it is rare for incumbents to receive more than 60 percent of the vote, and itneverhappens twice within the same spell in government. This appears to be a reliable indicator that differentiatesalldemocracies frommostdictatorships. The conclusion is inescapable—the dictatorial “passion for unanimity” and illusion of “organic unity” notwithstanding, the state is a plurality. The will of the electorate emerges as a result of competition among political parties.

scholarly journals GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE FOR BUSINESS UNDER CONDITIONS OF THE CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Оleksandra Viter ◽  
Oksana Kylyn ◽  
Natalia Sveleba
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Business Survival ◽  
Credit Lines ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The World

The article analyzes the current state of the tourism business market. Crisis phenomena in tourism caused by COVID-19 are considered. It is noted that the outbreak of coronavirus has caused a significant blow to the world economy and as a result it affects key sectors of the economy. According to experts, the current crisis has a much greater sudden financial impact than on September 11 and the crisis of 2009 combined. It was found that according to UN WTO forecasts in 2020 the number of international tourists due to the coronavirus pandemic decreased by 20-30% compared to 2019. According to the updated IMF forecast, in 2020 world GDP will shrink by 4.9%, the world economy will lose $ 12.5 trillion. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is calling for more funds to rehabilitate and support the tourism industry so that it can become a leader in economic recovery. The purpose of the measures implemented by governments during this difficult period can be divided into the following categories: to ensure a balance between the protection of tourists and the interests of tourism workers; provide conditions for business survival and targeted support and recovery of the tourism sector. Most countries focus on both approaches. Countries with more developed economies rely mainly on affordable credit lines which will restore the competitiveness of the national economy in a short period of time. Other countries are focusing on delaying tax and debt obligations, which could negatively affect the economy in the long run and lead to long-term budget deficits and general solvency problems. In order to stabilize the economic situation, governments adopt a range of both monetary and fiscal measures that can partially provide the conditions for business survival, as the tourism industry can become one of the drivers that helps the economy emerge from the crisis and can quickly create new jobs after crisis situations. Therefore, it is important that the measures taken by states to support the tourism business, the implementation of which will reduce the level of negative impact of the pandemic on the economy of the tourism industry.

scholarly journals Information Aggregation with Delegation of Votes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amrita Dhillon ◽  
Grammateia Kotsialou ◽  
Dimitris Xefteris
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
The State ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Blockchain Technology ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Liquid Democracy

Recent developments in blockchain technology have made possible greater progress on secure electronic voting, opening the way to better ways of democratic decision making. In this paper we formalise the features of ``liquid democracy'' which allows voters to delegate their votes to other voters, and we explore whether it improves information aggregation as compared to direct voting. We consider a two-alternative setup with truth-seeking voters (informed and uninformed) and partisan ones (leftists and rightists), and we show that delegation improves information aggregation in finite elections. We also propose a mechanism that further improves the information aggregation properties of delegation in private information settings, by guaranteeing that all vote transfers are from uninformed to informed truth-seeking voters. Delegation offers effective ways for truth-seeking uninformed voters to boost the vote-share of the alternative that matches the state of the world in all considered setups and hence deserves policy makers' attention.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanns W. Maull
Keyword(s):  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Nation State ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Integrated Framework ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Guiding Questions

This chapter sets out the guiding questions for this volume and develops a comprehensive, integrated framework for analyzing political order across its three major levels. It proposes a concept of order that allows a comparison and evaluation of the characteristics and evolution of political order at their three major spatial levels: the nation-state, partial regional and functional orders at intermediate levels between the state and the world as a whole, and the global level. Key aspects of political order are effectiveness, legitimacy, and authority; principles, norms, and rules; compliance and collective sanctions and the incidence of violence; actors with the capabilities and the intentions to shape respective orders; their major structural characteristics; and their evolution over time and their resilience.

scholarly journals Social Learning with Coarse Inference

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Guarino ◽  
Philippe Jehiel
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
The State ◽  
Action Space ◽  
Continuous Action ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Behavioral Bias ◽  
Aggregate Distribution ◽  
Rational Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Discrete Action

We study social learning by boundedly rational agents. Agents take a decision in sequence, after observing their predecessors and a private signal. They are unable to make perfect inferences from their predecessors' decisions: they only understand the relation between the aggregate distribution of actions and the state of nature, and make their inferences accordingly. We show that, in a discrete action space, even if agents receive signals of unbounded precision, there are asymptotic inefficiencies. In a continuous action space, compared to the rational case, agents overweight early signals. Despite this behavioral bias, eventually agents learn the realized state of the world and choose the correct action. (JEL D82, D83)

Understanding the Dynamics of Migration from Bangladesh to Tripura: Insights from Census Reports

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The State ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Over Time

The changing character of immigration over time in Tripura led to a huge demographic transition which is rare in the demographic history of the world. The study attempted to assess the distribution of documented Bangladeshi immigrants in Tripura and measure the trend and pattern of Bangladeshi immigration in the state. The study was based on secondary data computed from the migration tables under the D-series of census reports (1991,2001 and 2011) to deal with the study's objectives. The study has explored that almost 99 per cent of the total reported immigrants were from Bangladesh. The results revealed that female counterparts had outstripped the male Bangladeshi immigrants while the overall size of the immigrants was diminishing.

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