Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating*

Author(s):  
Ned Augenblick ◽  
Matthew Rabin

Abstract When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-120
Author(s):  
Michal Pal Bracha

"This article deals with symbolic goods in posters in Israel from the period before the establishment of the state to the present day. The poster and the symbolic goods that appear in it, serve as an agent of ideological companies. In this study, I will examine the nature of the relationship between the symbolic goods and the Zionist-Israeli ideology, by comparing the symbolic goods represented in them over time and space. The questions the research asks are: What are the contribution and importance of symbolic goods as an ideological tool in Israeli posters? Has the world of symbolic goods that served Zionist ideology origin or been borrowed from other ideologies? The methodology is Qualitative research by: study case, Visual – genealogical. The conclusions of the study indicate the importance of the symbolic goods in the foundation of the State of Israel by posters and other media. The symbolic goods that characterize the posters in Israel, consist in part of content related to Jewish tradition and religion (Bible stories and myths) and its other part is influenced by the symbolic goods appropriated from ideologies around the globe. Keywords: Symbolic Goods, Posters, Marketing, Ideology, Zionist Movement, Israel. "


2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (03) ◽  
pp. 415-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred G. Cuzán

ABSTRACTDrawing on more than 500 elections from around the world, this article presents five empirical laws of politics. Four of these laws span democracies and dictatorships, and one sets a boundary between the two. In both regimes the governing party or coalition represents a minority of the electorate. In democracies this minority usually represents a plurality that amounts to about one third of the electorate. Judging by the outcome of the first free elections in regimes undergoing a transition, there is reason to believe that in dictatorships the minority is much smaller. Even as they have an advantage over the opposition, the incumbents experience an erosion of support over time. In democracies this leads to alternation in office, which in turn ensures that across many elections about two-thirds of the electorate gets to see its favorite party or coalition in government from time to time. In dictatorships, during long periods in office, support for the ruling party shrinks to insignificance. Also in democracies, it is rare for incumbents to receive more than 60 percent of the vote, and itneverhappens twice within the same spell in government. This appears to be a reliable indicator that differentiatesalldemocracies frommostdictatorships. The conclusion is inescapable—the dictatorial “passion for unanimity” and illusion of “organic unity” notwithstanding, the state is a plurality. The will of the electorate emerges as a result of competition among political parties.


Author(s):  
Hanns W. Maull

This chapter sets out the guiding questions for this volume and develops a comprehensive, integrated framework for analyzing political order across its three major levels. It proposes a concept of order that allows a comparison and evaluation of the characteristics and evolution of political order at their three major spatial levels: the nation-state, partial regional and functional orders at intermediate levels between the state and the world as a whole, and the global level. Key aspects of political order are effectiveness, legitimacy, and authority; principles, norms, and rules; compliance and collective sanctions and the incidence of violence; actors with the capabilities and the intentions to shape respective orders; their major structural characteristics; and their evolution over time and their resilience.


Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 2281-2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mira Frick ◽  
Ryota Iijima ◽  
Yuhta Ishii

We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where even slight misperceptions can have a large negative impact on long‐run learning outcomes. We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents' actions over time, where agents' actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, we show, first, that even arbitrarily small amounts of misperception about the type distribution can generate extreme breakdowns of information aggregation, where in the long run all agents incorrectly assign probability 1 to some fixed state of the world, regardless of the true underlying state. Second, any misperception of the type distribution leads long‐run beliefs and behavior to vary only coarsely with the state, and we provide systematic predictions for how the nature of misperception shapes these coarse long‐run outcomes. Third, we show that how fragile information aggregation is against misperception depends on the richness of agents' payoff‐relevant uncertainty; a design implication is that information aggregation can be improved by simplifying agents' learning environment. The key feature behind our findings is that agents' belief‐updating becomes “decoupled” from the true state over time. We point to other environments where this feature is present and leads to similar fragility results.


The changing character of immigration over time in Tripura led to a huge demographic transition which is rare in the demographic history of the world. The study attempted to assess the distribution of documented Bangladeshi immigrants in Tripura and measure the trend and pattern of Bangladeshi immigration in the state. The study was based on secondary data computed from the migration tables under the D-series of census reports (1991,2001 and 2011) to deal with the study's objectives. The study has explored that almost 99 per cent of the total reported immigrants were from Bangladesh. The results revealed that female counterparts had outstripped the male Bangladeshi immigrants while the overall size of the immigrants was diminishing.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas C. Hindy ◽  
Emily W. Avery ◽  
Nicholas B. Turk-Browne

AbstractWhen an action is familiar, we are able to anticipate how it will change the state of the world. These expectations can result from retrieval of action-outcome associations in the hippocampus and the reinstatement of anticipated outcomes in visual cortex. How does this role for the hippocampus in action-based prediction change over time? We used high-resolution fMRI and a dual-training behavioral paradigm to examine how the hippocampus interacts with visual cortex during predictive and nonpredictive actions learned either three days earlier or immediately before the scan. Just-learned associations led to comparable background connectivity between the hippocampus and V1/V2, regardless of whether actions predicted outcomes. However, three-day-old associations led to stronger background connectivity and greater differentiation between neural patterns for predictive vs. nonpredictive actions. Hippocampal prediction may initially reflect indiscriminate binding of co-occurring of events, with action information pruning weaker associations and leading to more selective and accurate predictions over time.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole Jacob Sending

To analyze how authority emerges, become institutionalized, and may be transformed, we are best served with a concept of authority that highlights its dynamic features, and that captures the multiplicity of actors involved in producing and sustaining it. Extant accounts tend to operate with a view of ‘solid’ authority, but such a concept of authority is mainly descriptive, not explanatory. A turn to the liquid features of authority is not only better suited to account for global authority, but also for those pockets of ‘solid’ authority that we can find in the global or international sphere. I develop an account of authority that draws selectively from some of Bourdieu’s core concepts and highlight the inherently relational aspect of authority. Authority, I submit, is based on actors’ search for recognition. Such a perspective is better able to account for how authority emerges and may stabilize as ‘solid,’ and also be transformed over time. I draw on examples from the World Health Organization and the UN Security Council to illustrate the argument.


2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (10) ◽  
pp. 2763-2801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Wolitzky

I develop a simple model of social learning in which players observe others’ outcomes but not their actions. A continuum of players arrives continuously over time, and each player chooses once-and-for-all between a safe action (which succeeds with known probability) and a risky action (which succeeds with fixed but unknown probability, depending on the state of the world). The actions also differ in their costs. Before choosing, a player observes the outcomes of K earlier players. There is always an equilibrium in which success is more likely in the good state, and this alignment property holds whenever the initial generation of players is not well informed about the state. In the case of an outcome-improving innovation (where the risky action may yield a higher probability of success), players take the correct action as K → ∞. In the case of a cost-saving innovation (where the risky action involves saving a cost but accepting a lower probability of success), inefficiency persists as K → ∞ in any aligned equilibrium. Whether inefficiency takes the form of under-adoption or over-adoption also depends on the nature of the innovation. Convergence of the population to equilibrium may be nonmonotone. (JEL D81, D83, O32, Q12, Q16)


Check List ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-157
Author(s):  
Manuella Feitosa Leal ◽  
Luiz Ricardo Lopes de Simone ◽  
Ana Carolina Figueiredo Lacerda ◽  
Edson Lourenço da Silva ◽  
Tamaris Gimenez Pinheiro

Corbicula fluminea is an invasive clam originally from Asia that threatens the biodiversity of freshwater communities around the world. It has greatly expanded in Brazil since its first record. We report here the occurrence of C. fluminea from Piauí state, Parnaíba river basin and, provide an assessment of its current distribution in Brazil. The compiled data include 382 records in 22 states and the Federal District, encompassing a variety of ecosystems. These results contribute to a discussion about the invasion and expansion process of C. fluminea in Brazil over time.


Author(s):  
Wenwen Wang

Background: The Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo (1932-1945) set up a specialized curriculum and published textbooks specifically for girls, with the purpose of training girls to become “good wives and wise mothers”. Over the course of the state’s existence, the regime adjusted its curriculum, following the policies and needs of the Japanese Empire. This paper assesses how the government changed the curriculum, focusing on and what kind of female roles they tried to teach to the Chinese girls. Methodology: This paper compares and analyzes the content and classroom hours of the curriculum of public women’s secondary schools in Manchuria in three periods: 1) 1926-1937, 2) 1938-1941, and 3) 1941-1945. The data of this study was collected from material published by the Fengtian Female Normal School, and the Manchukuo provincial education magazine Fengtian Education. Results: From the state’s earliest period, Manchukuo education officials emphasized females’ “natural duty” as “Good Wives, Wise Mothers.” Over time, however, they also increasingly emphasized learning the Japanese language, vocational skills, and patriotic content, in order to serve the goals of Japan during the World War II. Conclusion: Despite the consistent rhetoric which emphasized women becoming mothers, and possibly teachers, the curriculum and contents of the education changed according to the interests of the state and the needs of the war, encouraging women to serve the state by taking up some of the roles that men had played.


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