Economic impacts of regional water scarcity in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: an application of a linked hydro-economic model

AbstractThis paper presents a linked hydro-economic model and uses it to examine the regional effects of water use regulations and product price changes on the agriculture of the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. The effects of weather on surface water availability are explicitly addressed using the hydrological model MIKE-Basin. Farmers’ adjustments to changes in precipitation, surface water availability, and other factors are quantified using an economic model based on non-linear programming techniques. The models are externally linked. Results show that regional impacts, at the sub-basin level, vary depending on the location of each sub-basin relative to river flows. The effects of water use regulations and of exogenous price shocks on agriculture depend on weather, location, product mix and production technology. Implications of these results for policies designed to manage agriculture and water use are discussed.

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Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-378-23-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 378 ◽

pp. 23-27 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Peter Kishiwa ◽

Joel Nobert ◽

Victor Kongo ◽

Preksedis Ndomba

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Use ◽

Water Availability ◽

Swat Model ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Peak Flows ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16–18 % in 2050s relative to 1980–1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 ∘C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

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Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios

Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - REVENG ◽

10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

pp. 107-121

Author(s):

Priscila Esposte Coutinho ◽

Marcio Cataldi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Human Consumption ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

São Francisco River ◽

The Impact

In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.

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Water Availability of São Francisco River Basin Based on a Space-Borne Geodetic Sensor

Water ◽

10.3390/w8050213 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (5) ◽

pp. 213 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Tengke Sun ◽

Vagner Ferreira ◽

Xiufeng He ◽

Samuel Andam-Akorful

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

São Francisco River

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Water Security and River Basin Revitalization of the São Francisco River Basin: A Symbiotic Relationship

Water ◽

10.3390/w13070907 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (7) ◽

pp. 907

Author(s):

Larissa Alves da Silva Rosa ◽

Manuela Morais ◽

Carlos Hiroo Saito

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Use ◽

Delphi Method ◽

Ecological Integrity ◽

Water Security ◽

Symbiotic Relationship ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

São Francisco River

What is river basin revitalization’s place in relation to water security? This question is the basis of our reflection, posed to help in the understanding of the evolution of both concepts, taking management of the São Francisco River Basin (Brazil) as a case study. With this main objective in mind, a literature review was carried out, followed by the collection of survey data on the watershed’s revitalization program. In this context, the members of the São Francisco River Basin Committee (a total of 124 participants) were consulted, using questionnaires with the Delphi method. The respondents (a total of 47) chose the river basin revitalization strategy as the main measure to achieving water security in the São Francisco River Basin. They also highlighted the importance of the environmental dimension, underlining measures for conservation and restoration of the ecosystem’s natural functions. The concept map tool was adopted for a comparative perspective between conceptual implications of revitalization and water security for the studied river basin’s conservation. The results showed the existence of a symbiotic relationship between both concepts. Consequently, we conclude that it is urgent to reconcile water use and ecosystem ecological integrity through the comprehensive concept of water security.

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Cowpea response to different irrigation depths in the Submedium São Francisco River Valley, in Juazeiro, BA, Brazil

Agrometeoros ◽

10.31062/agrom.v27i2.26475 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 27 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Vinícius Evangelista Alves de Oliveira ◽

Gertrudes Macario de Oliveira ◽

Ruy De Carvalho Rocha ◽

Mário de Miranda Vilas Boas Ramos Leitão ◽

Luciano Roniê Calado

Keyword(s):

Water Use Efficiency ◽

Water Use ◽

Water Availability ◽

Block Design ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

River Valley ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

Randomized Block Design ◽

São Francisco River ◽

Use Efficiency

Different cowpea genotypes respond differently to water regimes and to different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the response of cowpea to different irrigation depths in the Submedium São Francisco River Valley, Brazil. The experiment was conducted at the experimental field of DTCS/UNEB, in Juazeiro, BA, Brazil, from November/2016 to January/2017, in a 2 x 5 factorial scheme randomized block design (cowpea genotypes x irrigation depths), with three replicates. The genotypes used were BRS Acauã and Canapu and irrigation depths, obtained based on 50, 75, 100, 125, and 150% of ETo. Physiological characteristics, production components and water use efficiency were analyzed. Increased irrigation depths only caused a significant effect on mass of one 100 grains. With water availability and climatic conditions observed during the experiment, BRS Acauã outperformed Canapu, with a better yield performance. BRS Acauã genotype had a better response in water use efficiency for grain yield, exceeding Canapu by 47.21%.

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Scenarios of climate and land-use change,water demand and water availability for the São Francisco River basin

Revista Brasileira de Ciências Ambientais (Online) ◽

10.5327/z2176-947820151007 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 96-114 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Hagen Koch ◽

◽

Anne Biewald ◽

Stefan Liersch ◽

José Roberto Gonçalves de Azevedo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Demand ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

São Francisco River

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Induced reproduction and reproductive characteristics of Rhinelepis aspera Agassiz, 1829 (osteichthyes: Siluriformes, Loricariidae)

Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology ◽

10.1590/s1516-89131998000300006 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 41 (3) ◽

pp. 309-314 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Yoshimi Sato ◽

Nelsy Fenerich-Verani ◽

José Roberto Verani ◽

Hugo Pereira Godinho ◽

Edson Vieira Sampaio

Keyword(s):

Body Weight ◽

Water Temperature ◽

River Basin ◽

Fertilization Rate ◽

Pituitary Extract ◽

Reproductive Characteristics ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

Absolute Fecundity ◽

São Francisco River

Rhinelepis aspera is the largest Loricariidae species found in the São Francisco river basin where it is now rarely caught. Brooders kept in tanks were hypophysed with crude carp pituitary extract (CCPE). Approximately 82% of the females responded positive to the treatment. The egg was opaque, demersal, round, yellow and adhesive. Egg stripping was done at 212 hour-degrees (= 8.2 h) after application of the second dose of CCPE (water temperature = 25-26 ºC). Hatching of the larvae occurred at 1022 hour-degrees (= 42.2 h), after fertilization of the eggs (water temperature =24-25 ºC). Fertilization rate of the eggs was 72%. Absolute fecundity (AF), initial fertility (IF) and final fertility (FF) in relation to the females' body weight are expressed, respectively, by the equations: AF = - 33993 + 122308 Wt (r² = 0.88), IF = - 14823 + 58619 Wt (r² = 0.71) and FF = - 6553 + 29741 (r² = 0.61)

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Digenea of Hoplias intermedius and Hoplias malabaricus (Actinopterygii, Erythrinidae) from upper São Francisco River, Brazil

Revista Brasileira de Parasitologia Veterinária ◽

10.1590/s1984-29612015038 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 24 (2) ◽

pp. 129-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Danielle Priscilla Correia Costa ◽

Cassandra Moraes Monteiro ◽

Marilia Carvalho Brasil-Sato

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Feeding Habits ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

New Host ◽

Hoplias Malabaricus ◽

Parasitic Fauna ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

São Francisco River ◽

New Location

A total of 103 specimens of Hoplias intermedius (Günther, 1864) and 86 specimens of H. malabaricus (Bloch, 1794) from the upper São Francisco River, State of Minas Gerais were collected between April 2011 and August 2013, and their parasitic fauna were investigated. Four species of Digenea were found: metacercariae of Austrodiplostomum sp., and Ithyoclinostomum sp.; and adult specimens of Phyllodistomum spatula Odhner, 1902, and Pseudosellacotyla lutzi (Freitas, 1941) Yamaguti, 1954. The prevalence of the metacercariae was higher than that of the adult digeneans of erythrinids from the upper São Francisco River as a result of piscivorous feeding habits of these adult erythrinids. The presence of metacercariae and adult digeneans indicate that they act as intermediate and definitive hosts, respectively, in their biological cycles. Hoplias intermedius is a new host for the four species of Digenea, and the São Francisco River basin is a new location for the known geographical distributions of P. spatula and P. lutzi.

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